TORONTO — Justin Lehr joined the Toronto Blue Jays as minor-league pitching director two years ago and immediately made strike-throwing and count leverage a priority in the organization’s development of young arms.
“With the way technology is on pitch design and the biomech stuff, it can become kind of a trap where you're getting the cart in front of the horse,” he explained during a weekend visit with the big-league club. “The foundation of pitching is always going to be being in good counts, so just being really thoughtful about attacking that before we get into really technical stuff and start laying that on.
“Not that we're not technical from the outset, because obviously we're analyzing data,” he continued, “but it's tough to make the right adjustments if guys aren't in good counts.”
Horse back in front of the cart, the results of the change are already visible at the big-league level, with 285.1 of the 1,342 innings the Blue Jays have logged so far this season coming from pitchers drafted and/or developed in the system. At 21 per cent, that’s a sizable jump from last year’s 14.7 per cent (212 of 1,438 innings) and 2024’s 15 per cent (213 of 1,427.1) and the restoration of a pitching pipeline has been vital in this injury-marred year.
Seven Blue Jays pitchers debuted this season, with only Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles and minor-league free agent Tanner Andrews coming from outside the organization. Chad Dallas, Ricky Tiedemann and C.J. Van Eyk have all provided valuable up-and-down innings to support the pitching staff, as did lefty Adam Macko before he was traded at the deadline. Hayden Juenger made two appearances before he got traded while Lazaro Estrada, who debuted last year, covered 13 innings over eight outings, collecting a save against the Philadelphia Phillies on a day the bullpen was depleted.
In years past, the Blue Jays didn’t have that layer of depth to cover gaps, and it’s helped them stay afloat amid the relentless roster churn.
“I'm really proud of the guys that have come to the big-leagues and helped us compete and win baseball games,” said Lehr. “No matter what their ceiling is, the consistency of guys coming up here and doing a good job is great.”
Younger pitchers in the system made progress, too, with Lehr calling prospects Johnny King, Dasan Hill and Daniel Guerra “the future of our organization,” while noting that “they’re coming on strong.”
With only one week of triple-A games remaining in the season, here’s a look at some of the organization’s top pitching prospects:
Triple-A Buffalo
Ricky Tiedemann – The 24-year-old made his long-anticipated debut last month after reconstructive elbow surgery in July 2024 halted his rapid ascent to the majors. Still, a spring bout of elbow soreness slowed his progress and he continues to need recovery days around his outings out of the bullpen, but the upside remains clear.
“It's really just been the health that's held him back, because as you saw, the stuff plays in the big-leagues,” said Lehr. “It's not a really overly complicated game plan – it's big stuff, it's a really good feel for the sweeper, it's a great changeup. He's platoon-neutral so he can really clog up some high-leverage innings. It's just building up the tolerance to pitch more frequently, which I think next year is his year to really pile on more workload. But right now he's doing an excellent job. … I don't know what the more likely outcome (between starter and reliever) is as he builds more work. He's still very young with a platoon-neutral arsenal, so I don't rule out that he could start. It just probably wasn't going to work this year to build him up that much and get something out of him for the big-league team. I haven't really decided what he is other than a really good pitcher that can be used in any role. But obviously the starting role is going to take a little more time to build up.”
Gage Stanifer – The hard-throwing 22-year-old struck out 133 batters in 97 innings over 28 outings, 19 starts, at double-A New Hampshire and is working out of the bullpen to close out the season with Buffalo. Honing his command and limiting walks – he issued 64 of them with the Fisher Cats – remains a priority, with Lehr saying that’s “improving.”
“He's also taking on this new bullpen role at the end of the year and seems pretty comfortable in that,” continued Lehr. “For Gage, it's just finding consistency of mindset and controlling the game more internally. He's got really, really good weapons, so honing in on that winner mindset and finding consistency in counts, because when he is ahead in counts, he is pretty dominant. Out of the bullpen, the arsenal is the same. He's a three-pitch guy, fastball/slider/split. Just trying to see how he acclimates to that role if it becomes a real option. Certainly not giving up on the starter capacity because there's only so many guys that can hold big velo low for 100 pitches and he can do that. But late in the year with where his workload was, it just seemed like a really good opportunity to get him in triple-A using the big-league ball and see how he responds to something different.”
Daniel Guerra – The 22-year-old righty made a major jump at high-A Vancouver, logging 59 innings over 14 starts while striking out 78 and was moved up to New Hampshire and now Buffalo, working out of the bullpen, to close out the year.
"He's interesting in that, when I saw him last October, there was definitely something very glaring about his throw mechanics that was off, which I thought was really going to hold him back,” said Lehr. “Addressing the throw mechanics became a really huge win for development. Having him in Buffalo right now is a big deal.”
Jake Bloss – The 25-year-old righty returned from last year’s reconstructive elbow surgery to make five starts at Buffalo, flashing mid-to-upper 90s velo even with mixed results, before a teres major injury prematurely ended his season. He’s headed to the Arizona Fall League to “just get work and continue refining his game,” said Lehr. “Obviously there was a lot optimism after the Tommy John because the stuff was in a really, really good spot and then obviously had another setback. So recreating some work and making sure that he goes into the off-season with at least some comfortability that he can compete at a high level. ... We probably attributed (the mixed results) to fairly normal stuff coming back from surgery in the first year. Usually guys are at their best when they're in their second year, so the flashes were really exciting. The fastball, the big velo he was featuring, throwing the hard slider. Unfortunately got cut a little short and hopefully he's back to it.”
Double-A New Hampshire
Johnny King – The electric-armed, 20-year-old lefty dominated the Northwest League, where he was 4.1 years younger than the average age for pitchers, with 112 strikeouts over 84 innings in 21 starts and finished the season with five starts at double-A, posting a 2.95 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 21.1 frames. Cutting down a walk rate of 5.3 per nine innings by “honing the command of the fastball and the curveball” remains a priority, along with working in a changeup he often didn’t need at the lower levels.
“The changeup for his age is in a pretty darn good place – it'll definitely flash really good shape and performance,” said Lehr. “He's not afraid to try and throw it to strike guys out, which is really nice. It's just been a third priority in that he's a young kid, establishing that he can be good with the primary pitches and throws. But by the time he arrives at the major-league level, he'll have it and it'll be a huge weapon for him.”
Nolan Perry – Another prospect working back from Tommy John surgery in 2024, the 23-year-old right-hander tore through three levels to reach double-A while also representing the Blue Jays at the Futures Game. He struck out a combined 117 in 82.2 innings across 21 games, 20 starts, while walking just 32, positioning himself to potentially factor in 2027.
“Ever since he's come back from the rehab process, and I don't want to put any bad luck on him, it's just been easy to see him go perform and show his gifts in terms of having really strong tools,” said Lehr. “It's just an innate feel to pitch, which is really hard to teach and develop. He seems very unassuming, but the internal fire's there. Highly competitive. And his gift is that he can throw really any pitch at any time, and they're all pretty damn good.”
Danny Thompson – The 24-year-old righty, an eighth-round pick a year ago, impressed in a short stint with low-A Dunedin in 2025 before jumping into the rotations at Vancouver and New Hampshire, logging 100.1 innings over 24 games, 20 starts, with 124 strikeouts against 40 walks. Driving his progress is “a really elite fastball that comes in pretty flat,” said Lehr.
“He throws hard. He's got the sweeping-shape slider, changeup. He's gritty, a really tough kid,” he continued. “He probably has a chip on his shoulder that he was overlooked. In some ways I'm very surprised at how far he's taken it, and in some ways I'm not, because when you meet him, you realize this guy is incredibly, incredibly competitive and he has a really nice carrying fastball. For our org, he probably throws more fastballs than most. Being low to the ground (at six feet), having a fastball that has some carry just gets him outside of the average plane for hitters, so he has some approach advantages and it's tough to train for that. He's really strong, too. It's not a big frame, but man, that guy is really strong.”
High-A Vancouver Canadians
Dasan Hill – The 20-year-old righty, the central piece coming back from Minnesota in the Jeff Hoffman deal, won over Blue Jays development staff immediately while helping the Canadians win a Northwest League championship. Between the two systems, he struck out 98 batters in 61.1 innings over 21 starts while allowing only two home runs, but walked 44.
“I think he's phenomenal,” said Lehr. “Really elite pitcher mind, smart, wants to be challenged in areas and I've learned very quickly he absolutely despises when guys put the ball in play. We're working on the efficiency part of his game, which I think has been much better, but I like the mindset that he just doesn't like it when guys hit the ball.”
Low-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Carson Messina – The 20-year-old righty missed most of last season with elbow issues but showed big stuff 57.1 innings over 19 games in the Complex League and Dunedin, striking out 68 batters while walking 41. "In my first camp, I saw him throw his first live BP and he was like 95 to 98. I walked over to the coaches and I'm like, ‘Who is this kid throwing 98 looking like he's been doing it forever?’ Then he had a hiccup with the health and we didn't see him for a long time,” said Lehr. “This year he made so much progress in the way he trains between starts so that he could get to the high-intent throws more often. That's really been a learning curve for him. Stuff is good, curveball's great, the velo's great. He's a physical kid, already. For him, it's just those routines that high-school kids who come into pro ball don't have yet to sustain a six, seven-month season. A lot of gains there this year. I'm really proud of him.”
Cole Carlon – Selected 39th overall this summer, the six-foot-five lefty was shut down after signing having already transitioned to the rotation and logged 83.2 innings for Arizona State. His overpowering repertoire gives him a chance to move through the system quickly next season. “I really love the upside of this kid,” said Lehr. “It's interesting that he deployed kind of a slider-first mentality in the league he was in, given how offensive it was. For us, it's just rounding out the usage and the deployment of what are really good pitches. He's shown the ability to land the curveball and he throws a really good slider and the changeup lands, as well. So even though he didn't deploy all those pitches in college, we know they're in there and so I think his ceiling is incredibly high.”
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