TORONTO – Technically speaking the Toronto Blue Jays’ season won’t end if they lose Thursday night, but when Robbie Ray takes the mound opposite Corey Kluber shortly after 7 p.m. ET, it’ll certainly feel like a must-win game for the home team.
After a dramatic 6-5 win over the Yankees Wednesday the Blue Jays will be looking to take advantage of their final chance to gain ground on a fellow wild-card contender. Meanwhile, the Yankees will send a former Cy Young winner to the mound in the hopes of creating some separation in the standings.
The day begins with the Yankees 1.0 game ahead of the Boston Red Sox and the Red Sox 1.0 game ahead of the Blue Jays. And in between the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Seattle Mariners are just 0.5 games behind Boston for the second wild-card, 0.5 games ahead of Toronto.
It’s close, but with just four games remaining, there’s no time to waste -- which means every tactical decision takes on added importance. With those high stakes in mind, we look ahead at some of the big decisions the Blue Jays will soon be facing.
How should the Blue Jays line things up against Corey Kluber and the Yankees?
Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
With Robbie Ray pitching, it makes sense to start Alejandro Kirk, the catcher with whom Ray has developed the greatest sense of comfort on his way to a Cy Young calibre season.
Assuming Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will still be limited to DH duty, you’re choosing between Corey Dickerson and Randal Grichuk for the final outfield spot. Of those two, I’d go with Grichuk because Kluber has struggled against right-handed hitters this year and Grichuk’s glove could make a difference on a day a fly ball pitcher starts for the Blue Jays. Santiago Espinal rounds out my projected lineup at third base:
1. George Springer, CF
2. Marcus Semien, 2B
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Bo Bichette, SS
5. Teoscar Hernandez, LF
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., DH
7. Alejandro Kirk, C
8. Santiago Espinal, 3B
9. Randal Grichuk, RF
Arden Zwelling @ardenzwelling
Kirk gets the call behind the plate as he has for Robbie Ray’s last 12 starts. But his bat’s been cold of late (4-for-38 over the last three weeks) so I’m hitting him behind Dickerson, who has a decent track record against Kluber (5-for-14) for what little that’s worth. I also like getting Dickerson’s left-handed bat a little higher in the order to avoid a run of six straight righties late in the game. And Dickerson’s making a ton of hard contact lately — six of his last seven balls in play have come off his bat at 98-m.p.h. or harder.
Kluber will mix and match, but one thing you can count on seeing is plenty of curveballs. It’s been his most-used pitch in four of five starts since coming off the injured list. And Dickerson has a .365 wOBA against curveballs this season with nine extra-base hits. Who’s been Toronto’s worst performer against curveballs? Gurriel Jr., who has a .252 wOBA.
And that’s not the only reason Gurriel’s on my bench. After watching him the last two days, I don’t believe he’s healthy enough to contribute. His fingers are mangled from Grichuk’s spikes and it’s clearly impacting him at the plate. Over eight plate appearances in this series he’s struck out twice and hit six groundballs with an average exit velocity of 86-m.p.h. Credit to him for trying to gut it out — but I need a guy in there who can properly grip a bat.
That guy for me is Cavan Biggio. We’re all aware of the tough season Biggio’s had. But all I’m asking him to do here is get on base once or twice against Kluber out of the nine hole — something he’s more than capable of with his selective approach. Even in a down year, Biggio’s OBP (.316) is still comparable to Gurriel’s (.326) and the club was impressed with the plate appearances he was putting up at triple-A prior to his promotion. And if Biggio runs into one of New York’s many left-handed relievers late in the game, I can always pinch-hit with Grichuk.
1. George Springer, CF
2. Marcus Semien, 2B
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Bo Bichette, SS
5. Teoscar Hernandez, RF
6. Corey Dickerson, LF
7. Alejandro Kirk, C
8. Santiago Espinal, 3B
9. Cavan Biggio, DH
How long should Robbie Ray’s leash be? At what point are you getting someone warmed up behind him?
Arden Zwelling @ardenzwelling
If anyone’s earned his rope this season it’s Ray — I’m running him as far as he’ll take me. I’ll of course have a close eye on his live pitch data, looking for any clues in his velocity, spin rate or movement that suggest his stuff’s losing effectiveness. But provided everything’s copacetic and he’s getting efficient outs, I’m not hesitating to let Ray start his third trip through New York’s order.
Still, for as well as Ray’s performed this season, he hasn’t been immune to the third trip penalty. His OPS against balloons from .587 his first trip through, and .569 during his second. to .863 in his third. I won’t let Pete Walker stray too far from the bullpen phone once DJ LeMahieu comes back up for his third plate appearance.
But Ray essentially pitches like a high-leverage reliever, anyway. So I’m not lifting him any earlier than the seventh unless he’s getting rocked, his pitch count’s through the roof, or the quality of his stuff is giving me a compelling reason to.
Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
At this point, Ray may be the favourite to win the American League Cy Young. Or, put another way, he’s been the best pitcher in the league this year. And with that in mind, the Blue Jays shouldn’t be in a hurry to get him out of the game. When he’s on, he’s better than any reliever the Blue Jays have so, best-case scenario, he’s pitching deep into Wednesday’s game.
Ultimately, it's the swings the Yankees take that will tell the Blue Jays how far they should be pushing Ray. The eye test matters. Yet the Blue Jays should at least be aware of the fact that opponents do better against Ray the more they see him, with an OPS of .863 the third time they face him in a game. Keeping that in mind while they watch how New York’s hitters handle Ray’s stuff will tell them when it’s time to make a move.
Bottom line, you’re expecting at least six innings from Ray, comfortable going seven and open to pushing him further if his pitch count is low and his stuff is electric. There are times to go to the bullpen early; this isn’t one of them.
In a close game, who should get the ball in the late innings?
Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
The Blue Jays are in a relatively good spot with respect to their bullpen. All of their key relievers should be available, including Jordan Romano, who threw just 12 pitches while closing out Wednesday's win.
A couple variables to consider: Tim Mayza allowed two key runs to score late Wednesday, but there’s no need to shy away from going back to the left-hander if needed. Plus: Adam Cimber has pitched in four of the Blue Jays' last five games, including a four-out appearance Wednesday. I'm guessing he's yellow (available if needed) rather than red (unavailable) on the Jays' bullpen card.
If Ray exits early or the game goes extras, the Blue Jays could confidently hand the ball to Nate Pearson, who has struck out eight of the last 20 hitters he has faced. That said, the Blue Jays are likely hoping it doesn’t get to that point.
If they need to cover three innings, Trevor Richards likely needs to figure in. If it’s just two innings, Mayza could handle the eighth. But if Judge and Stanton are due to lead off the eighth and the Blue Jays are protecting a narrow lead, that would be a good time to go to Romano, who already pitched two innings on two different occasions this season. You don’t want to make a habit of asking your closer for two-inning saves, but if not now, when?
Arden Zwelling @ardenzwelling
I’m checking in with Adam Cimber pre-game to see how he’s feeling coming off outings on back-to-back days. But he threw only three pitches Tuesday and 16 on Wednesday — presumably he’ll be available for a short outing if I need him. My only other workload concern is with Tim Mayza, who threw 20 pitches and gave up a two-run single to Kyle Higashioka Wednesday. But I’m not hesitating to throw Mayza right back into a leverage spot if he’s good to go.
Cimber or Mayza are the two guys I’m turning to if Ray leaves with a runner on first or second in the fifth or sixth inning. Cimber if I’ve got a right-hander like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton coming up; Mayza for a left-hander like Anthony Rizzo or Joey Gallo. A rested Trevor Richards is in that mid-to-late inning mix, as well. And Romano obviously has the ninth regardless of which team’s winning. I’d even ask Romano to give me four outs if things got dicey in the eighth.
I could envision a leverage spot for Nate Pearson. Say Mayza’s a little shaky again and I need to get him out of there. Or I end up in a spot with runners on second and third, one out, and a right-hander coming up. I’d prefer Pearson in that spot to Cimber, who doesn’t miss bats and is likely to allow a ball in play. I really need a strikeout there and don’t want to risk getting BABIP’ed. Plus, having first base open gives me a little cushion if Pearson takes a few pitches to find the strike zone.
