Assessing needs, opportunities on Blue Jays' roster ahead of pivotal off-season

Ben Nicholson-Smith joins Sportsnet Central to discuss the Toronto Blue Jays offseason plans and what the odds would be seeing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien both re-signing with the team.

TORONTO — In the coming days, Toronto Blue Jays front office executives will each spend time thinking about a few dozen questions.

For instance: Which pitchers could bounce back from underwhelming seasons once paired with pitching coach Pete Walker and the Blue Jays’ analytics department? Or: Which free-agent targets rank as top priorities and which ones can wait?

To start, the Blue Jays staffers will weigh these questions individually. Then, they’ll compare notes, determining where consensus exists and which topics lead to the most diverse collections of answers.

"We've asked well over 30 very detailed, specific questions to our entire baseball operations group," GM Ross Atkins explained via Zoom Wednesday. "We'll discuss them and come up with those lists and those targets."

With Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray and Steven Matz all hitting free agency, the Blue Jays are about to see some of the league’s best players removed from their roster — at least temporarily. As such, they have another pivotal off-season approaching one year after outspending every team in baseball.

According to Atkins, the Blue Jays do have interest in retaining all three of those free agents, but there’s still a good chance this roster looks very different in 2022. At the very least, the Blue Jays are open to significant change, whether through free agency or trades.

"On both fronts, we're in a really good position,” Atkins said.

Eventually, the responses to the front office survey will guide the Blue Jays’ next moves. In the meantime, let’s take stock of where this team stands at each position to determine which needs and opportunities exist ...

Catcher

Existing internal options: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Reese McGuire, Gabriel Moreno

Two years ago, the Blue Jays pursued Yasmani Grandal. Last winter they were involved on J.T. Realmuto. Now, they’ve got legitimate depth at catcher, especially given the emergence of Moreno and how well Jansen finished the season.

Within a few years, it appears likely this position will belong to Moreno, one of the top prospects in baseball. Until then, there’s no need to go outside of the organization for help behind the plate.

First Base

Existing internal options: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio

This one’s simple. Not only did Guerrero Jr. improve defensively, he’s the best hitter in the American League. The bigger question is whether the Blue Jays can extend him.

Second Base

Existing internal options: Cavan Biggio, Kevin Smith, Breyvic Valera

In all of baseball history, no second baseman hit more home runs in a single season than the 45 Marcus Semien contributed in 2021. Even beyond the power production, Semien offered durability, defence, good baserunning and a disciplined preparation style that made an impact on those around him.

On Wednesday’s conference call, Atkins repeatedly said the Blue Jays have interest in retaining Semien, but then he’s a 7.0-WAR player. Many other teams will want to sign Semien, too.

If the 31-year-old does go elsewhere, Cavan Biggio would be the logical internal replacement. While moving Biggio to third base didn’t work out well in 2021, he has shown himself to be a capable defensive second baseman and despite his struggles at the plate this year, he still owns a lifetime .354 OBP in the major leagues.

Third Base

Existing internal options: Santiago Espinal, Kevin Smith, Breyvic Valera

Six different Blue Jays played at least nine games at the hot corner in 2021, but none of them have assurances of a starting job entering 2022. Of that group, it’s Santiago Espinal who looks like the strongest internal option, but the Blue Jays will also be open to outside help here.

Otherwise, they're making a massive bet the .781 OPS Espinal posted this year is sustainable. After just 246 plate appearances, that bet would come with plenty of risk.

"We don't have to do it, but it's an area where we can," Atkins said.

An interesting variable here: Carlos Correa has played third base for Puerto Rico at the World Baseball Classic. Corey Seager played third base when he first came up with the Los Angeles Dodgers. And as we saw with last year’s Semien deal, the Blue Jays certainly aren’t opposed to playing multiple shortstops on the same infield.

At this point, second and third look like the most logical places for the Blue Jays to pursue big bats. All things being equal, the Blue Jays would likely prefer left-handed hitters who get on base.

Shortstop

Existing internal options: Bo Bichette, Santiago Espinal, Kevin Smith

Defensively, Bichette improved considerably as the season went on and by year’s end there were no questions about his ability to handle the position. As the Blue Jays move ahead, they sound sure about Bichette’s future at shortstop.

"I think he's just scratching the surface,” Atkins said. “We're obviously committed to him and believe in him."

While the GM left open the possibility of adding other players with significant shortstop experience, those players wouldn’t necessarily displace Bichette.

Outfield

Existing internal options: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, Josh Palacios, Breyvic Valera

If anything, outfield is an area of surplus for the Blue Jays with four starting outfielders for three spots. It’s certainly possible they could consider trading Grichuk, who ended up with 22 home runs even though he got part-time at-bats down the stretch.

Regardless, they need a bench player capable of playing centre field whether it’s Grichuk or somebody else. With a 32-year-old George Springer coming off a season in which he was limited by leg issues, the Blue Jays must create a viable contingency plan for 2022.

Starting Pitching

Existing internal options: Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton

The upcoming departures of Ray and Matz will seriously weaken this rotation, making starting pitching one of the top off-season priorities for Atkins & Co.

Thankfully, it’s a stronger free agent class than usual with future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander set to hit the open market alongside a younger group of starters including Kevin Gausman, Noah Syndergaard and Anthony DeSclafani.

Somehow, the Blue Jays must reinforce their existing group over the coming months. Without multiple legitimate starting pitchers, the Blue Jays will be exposing themselves to lots of risk entering 2022.

Bullpen

Existing internal options: Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki, Tayler Saucedo, Kirby Snead, Anthony Castro

One way or another, the Blue Jays must also add multiple relievers to their bullpen. Expect swing-and-miss arms to be a priority, and don’t be surprised if trades factor in here.

How they do it is the interesting part, and there’s a legitimate debate to be had here: Should the Blue Jays make the bullpen a bigger priority and move aggressively in pursuit of, say, Collin McHugh? Or does the group’s strong finish allow the Blue Jays to remain patient and let opportunities come to them?

Regardless of what the Blue Jays decide, there’s a need for multiple bullpen additions before opening day 2022. Remember, 38 pitchers appeared for the Blue Jays in 2021. Thirty-eight! Assuming a similar number of arms will be needed to get through next season, waiver claims, minor-league signings and seemingly minor trade pickups could make a significant impact, too. After missing the playoffs by a single game, no advantage is too small to overlook.

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