TORONTO – Run-differential and expected win-loss are crude metrics that generally, but not always, correlate to a team’s record in the standings. Sometimes, differences between expected and actual marks are simply statistical anomalies, skewed by a handful of outlier results. Sometimes, however, they’re indicative of a deeper story beneath the surface.
The latter certainly holds when it comes to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are outperforming their expected record by five wins, and the New York Yankees, who are five wins under their run-differential, with their four-game series this week a microcosm of why for both clubs.
At plus-9 after Thursday night’s 8-5 victory completed a four-game sweep, the Blue Jays have certainly been more than the sum of their parts, fusing together solid pitching, scrappy at-bats, opportunistic power, clever baserunning and tight defence.
They needed all those elements against the Yankees, who at plus-100, have the most dominant hitter of this generation in Aaron Judge, power throughout the lineup, high-end pitching and a handful of soft spots for canny opponents to exploit.
Catcher interference calls against J.C. Escarra in each of the first two games of the series, for instance, helped fuel pivotal Blue Jays rallies. A Devin Williams wild pitch in the eighth inning Wednesday allowed the go-ahead run to score. Loose infield play by Jazz Chisholm Jr. at third and Anthony Volpe at shortstop also factored into the first three games.
The finale featured more of the punch/counter-punch that made the four games so compelling. Addison Barger opened the scoring with an RBI double in the first and after Trent Grisham’s solo shot in the third tied it up, George Springer’s two-run homer in the bottom half put the Blue Jays back up 3-1. After the Yankees clawed back in the fourth, Nathan Lukes capped a 14-pitch at-bat with a two-run double in the bottom half that opened up a 5-3 lead, while Barger’s solo shot in the fifth expanded the lead.
The padding came in handy as the Yankees crawled within one on a Chisholm RBI double and Volpe groundout in the seventh. But Justin Bruihl struck out Cody Bellinger on a pitch that hit the outfielder on the elbow to strand a Judge intentional walk in the eighth, Springer hit another two-run homer in the bottom half to again open up breathing room and Jeff Hoffman, pitching for the third time in four games, closed things out in the ninth.
And that’s how the Blue Jays, 49-38, moved a game ahead of the Yankees and idle Tampa Bay Rays, both 48-39, for sole possession of first in the American League East.
“It's just been unbelievable that everybody is doing some sort of something during the game,” said Lukes, who had three hits and scored twice to go with his two RBIs covering in the leadoff spot for Bo Bichette, who didn’t start for the fourth straight game but entered as a pinch-hitter in the seventh.
“Everyone's contributing, whether it's hitting, pitching, defence, base-running, I feel like we're firing on all cylinders, which is really cool to watch.”
And the feeling of taking over top spot, having been back eight games on May 28?
“Let's keep it,” Lukes replied.
While the gulf between the clubs’ run-differential would seem to make all of the above unlikely, perhaps a more telling measure is that the Blue Jays are 13-10 in one-run games and 26-17 in one-or-two-run games, while the Yankees are 12-17 and 16-25 in such contests.
Small plays get magnified when games are tight and, to this point at least, the Blue Jays are executing better in that regard than the Yankees.
"There are lots of ways to win, you know what I mean? There's not one recipe,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider. “Expected win/loss, yeah, there's some truth to that. A lot of it comes down to doing things that aren't glaring. It's not a glaring three-run homer, or it's not a glaring 10-strikeout performance from a pitcher. It's making a play when most other people wouldn't. It's taking an extra base when most other people wouldn't. And it's putting the ball in play when most others wouldn't. We're OK with that. That's how we're built. That may not be sexy. But I think it comes down to being able to do what you're good at and me hopefully putting guys in position to do what they're good at.”
The Blue Jays have been on a remarkable run in that regard, maximizing the entirety of their 26-man roster for much of a 33-18 stretch, especially so over the past month since Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho hit the injured list.
Perhaps no better example of that was the way the Blue Jays bridged from starter Chris Bassitt, dogged through 5.2 innings, to the end with Brendon Little, Yariel Rodriguez and Yimi Garcia all down due to workload.
Braydon Fisher induced a Ben Rice grounder to end the sixth but got only one out in the messy seventh, leaving Chad Green to work out of that jam. Green got two out in the eighth before the walk to Judge, bringing in Bruihl to deal with Bellinger and deliver the fateful 3-2 sinker.
“It's just an example of who we are as a team,” said Springer, who was 8-for-14 with four homers, 11 RBIs, seven runs and four walks in the series. “It's whoever has the ball, it doesn't matter who it is, I think everybody has the belief that the job is going to get done. He did it in a very awkward fashion, but it worked.”
No doubt, as have so many other things the Blue Jays have done the past couple of months, from covering Max Scherzer’s absence with bullpen days, to promoting Barger and giving him run, to locking Eric Lauer into the rotation, to utilizing Lukes and Myles Straw and Davis Schneider and so many others to maximum effect.
Every team talks about wanting to be 26 deep, but the Blue Jays, in using 20 different position players and 25 different pitchers, really have lived the mantra.
“It's taken a while,” said Bassitt. “But just the way that we're playing, holding each other accountable off the field, on the field, the culture we've built allows it.”
And it’s taken them to the top of the AL East, no matter what their run-differential and expected wins may say.
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