TORONTO – Increasingly clear as this turbulent winter has meandered along is precisely how much the Toronto Blue Jays are betting that internal improvements will help make them a better team in 2024.
Really, it’s the only way the prudent discipline of their moves since the inspired ambition of the unsuccessful Shohei Ohtani pursuit can work.
After all, in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and landing Isiah Kiner-Falefa, with the pending additions of Yariel Rodriguez and Justin Turner, signed to a $13-million, one-year deal Tuesday, they’ve likely maintained their floor more than raised their ceiling.
And even then, the Blue Jays haven’t necessarily recovered all the lost production their free agents took into the market.
While Kiermaier returns to the role he played a year ago, Turner arrives to replace Brandon Belt as the primary DH and clubhouse sage and Rodriguez replaces the lost innings of Jordan Hicks and Hyun Jin Ryu in a hybrid role, Kiner-Falefa is either the backfill for Matt Chapman or Whit Merrifield, depending on his ultimate usage.
Covering off the remaining gap likely falls to players already on the roster – probably some combination of Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider and Santiago Espinal, as things stand now – and though other additions are possible, it seems like the Blue Jays’ heavy lifting is done.
Hence, the likeliest source for significant gains that raise the ceiling, particularly at the plate, is players in-house, leaving the Blue Jays depending on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho to provide more impact than they did a year ago.
Similarly, a return to form by Alek Manoah should help mitigate any possible regression by a stalwart rotation, while a full year of Chad Green helps reinforce the bullpen.
There’s certainly enough talent and track record for this Blue Jays approach to work, with the potential for pivotal boosts from young players who contributed a year ago like Schneider and Spencer Horwitz, plus prospects such as Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Damiano Palmegiani and Alan Roden.
At the same time, there’s no certainty all those elements will come together, that everyone will find their groove at the plate and thump in a way they didn’t last year, that a pitching staff that was remarkably healthy throughout 2023 will remain so again in 2024, that no new problems will suddenly and unexpectedly arise.
Whether essentially running it back with the same team and expecting a different outcome was the right call will play out in the months ahead. But once Ohtani chose the Dodgers, the pathway to a transformational off-season closed off on the Blue Jays, choked off by a mediocre free-agent hitting class and insufficient farm system depth for impact trades.
Re-signing Chapman would require a commitment the Blue Jays have thus far been reluctant to make and the same applies to Cody Bellinger, the other top free agent remaining on the market.
Trade-wise, the Blue Jays didn’t have the pieces to outbid the New York Yankees and land Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres, or to top the Seattle Mariners to get Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins.
They could have offered more than what the Arizona Diamondbacks did to land third baseman Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners back in November, but that opportunity may look different with the gift of hindsight than it did at the time.
So, given how little was out there for them, the Blue Jays did what they could and one of their most fateful calls of the winter may be whether getting Turner, rather than perhaps stretching to land one of fellow free agents J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler, turns out to be the right one.
They tried to land Joc Pederson, who is said to have had his eye on the Diamondbacks gig all along, and his left-handed bat would have fit the Blue Jays well.
Turner will fit well, too, with the questions around him tied to his age – he’s 39, turning 40 in November – and how that might impact his health. Still his professionalism and presence, one executive described him as the type of player every contending team wants, help counter that and this anecdote shared by Chris Cotillo of Mass Live offers a good line of sight into the leadership he brings.
He should make the Blue Jays better, then, as should Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa and the intriguing Rodriguez, who may need some runway before he finds his footing, even if they alone won’t be enough.
The Blue Jays are counting on their major improvements to come from within, helped along by their coaching staff tweaks, changes to offensive game-planning and the off-season adjustments and training of players, to make 2024 better than 2023.
