Breaking down trade scenarios for Blue Jays' top candidates

TORONTO — Less than a week until the MLB trade deadline, and no deals of substance have happened yet. Even behind the scenes, some say it’s more due diligence than substantive negotiations.

“So, so, so quiet,” one executive said. “But wait a few more days,” said another.

Probably good advice, as baseball executives have never seen a deadline they didn’t want to push to the final minute. Soon enough, it’ll be time for the many fringe contenders to choose a path forward, and the resulting moves will happen in rapid succession.

While many teams remain undecided on how to proceed, the Toronto Blue Jays know what’s next: They’re selling. In conversations with industry observers, it becomes clear at least two players will be traded, likely more. With respect to a couple impact arms, it’s more a question of when and where than if.

But since the Blue Jays plan to keep the door open on contending in 2025, prying away the likes of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be extremely difficult. Rival teams can still try, of course. It’s not like Ross Atkins is about to hang up on a fellow GM midway through a trade offer.

According to sources, though, the Blue Jays aren’t shopping those players or the injured Bo Bichette. If buyers want to acquire someone like Guerrero Jr., they’d have to bowl the Blue Jays over. The safe guess is that doesn’t happen.

Now, there’s a discussion to be had about whether a large-scale sell-off should be contemplated, but that’s not the team’s plan now, so the debate is better saved for another time. Maybe this off-season. Maybe next trade deadline. First, though, let’s take stock of the here and the now — more specifically, who’s available, who’s not and which buying teams are the best fits for these 11 Blue Jays:

Yusei Kikuchi, SP
Best speculative fits: Padres, Guardians, Astros, Orioles, Brewers, Twins
Likelihood of a trade: extremely high
Reasoning: Kikuchi has swing-and-miss stuff, the best control of his life and a reasonable $10-million salary. Depending on what you think about Jack Flaherty, he’s arguably the top rental starter available at a time when many, many teams need starting pitching. The list of suitors will be long, and he will be traded. 

Yimi Garcia, RP
Best speculative fits: Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees
Likelihood of a trade: extremely high
Reasoning: With a fastball that averages 96.6 m.p.h. and three breaking balls that generate swing and miss, Garcia has the kind of stuff you see in high-leverage October moments. Contending teams will want to see another healthy outing or two from Garcia, who struck out the side Saturday in his first game action since June 16. But as long as he continues to look good physically, he’ll be in high demand and the Blue Jays will trade him.

Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Best speculative fits: Padres, Guardians, Twins, Dodgers, Yankees
Likelihood of a trade: available, reasonable chance of a deal
Reasoning: We know now that MLB teams don’t value Kiermaier at his current $10.5-million salary, but if the Blue Jays cover some of that freight, some executives predict there will still be a pathway to a trade, albeit on a relatively modest scale. For starters, Kiermaier is clearly available. Plus, he’s still an objectively excellent outfielder and baserunner, even in a down offensive year. That plays.

The Padres were interested in Kiermaier over the winter, while the other teams listed have had poor centre-field defence this year, as measured by FanGraphs.

Justin Turner, DH
Best speculative fits: Royals, Cardinals, Brewers
Likelihood of a trade: available, reasonable chance of a deal
Reasoning: Turner still offers a professional at-bat, as evidenced by his homer Tuesday night. His season OPS of .688 is modest enough that the Blue Jays won’t get a top prospect back for the 39-year-old, but there’s still value in someone who posts an .830 OPS against left-handed pitching.

The Cardinals and Royals have struggled against lefties, for instance, and could have interest, especially if the Blue Jays kick in some money.

Trevor Richards, RP
Best speculative fits: Padres, Mets
Likelihood of a trade: available, but recent struggles lower value
Reasoning: No team is relying on ERA to make its deadline decisions anymore, but results do matter and Richards has allowed 11 earned runs, including three home runs over the course of his last 5.2 innings. In three weeks, his ERA climbed from 2.44 to 4.14.

It’s been a rough stretch, and these recent struggles have likely hurt his value. Still, he’s available, and an opportunistic buyer (someone with a big home ballpark, perhaps) could want the depth.

Danny Jansen, C
Best speculative fits: Cubs, Padres
Likelihood of a trade: lower than you’d think
Reasoning: Like the other Blue Jays approaching free agency, Jansen is available in trades, but he hasn’t hit well lately, with an OPS of .429 since June 1, and there simply aren’t that many contenders in need of catching help. Further limiting the Blue Jays’ leverage, executives expect the Tigers to trade Carson Kelly. Don’t be surprised if Jansen stays put.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Utility
Best speculative fits: Atlanta, Yankees, Royals
Likelihood of a trade: possible
Reasoning: Kiner-Falefa is ahead of schedule on his way back from the knee injury that’s sidelined him all month, and he could help a contender with his versatility. The Blue Jays aren’t shopping him, but some rival executives won’t be surprised if he moves.

Chad Green, RP
Best speculative fits: Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees
Likelihood of a trade: possible, but Blue Jays plan to keep him
Reasoning: He’s pitching effectively and could help next year, when the bullpen looks like a major area of need, so the Blue Jays aren’t in a rush to move him. But if a contender comes calling, they’ll certainly listen, propping open the possibility of a deal if a big-market buyer — like his former team, the Yankees — is motivated.

Chris Bassitt, SP
Best speculative fits: Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, Padres
Likelihood of a trade: very low
Reasoning: Holding Bassitt keeps open the possibility of competing in 2025. The Blue Jays aren’t shopping him and are likely to keep him.

Kevin Gausman, SP
Best speculative fits: Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, Padres
Likelihood of a trade: very low
Reasoning: Holding Gausman keeps open the possibility of competing in 2025. The Blue Jays aren’t shopping him and are likely to keep him.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
Best speculative fits: Astros, Mariners, Padres, Yankees
Likelihood of a trade: extremely low
Reasoning: Holding Guerrero Jr. keeps open the possibility of competing in 2025. The Blue Jays aren’t shopping him. A trade would be a major surprise.