The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a three-game set with the Houston Astros Friday night at Sahlen Field in Buffalo.
Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.
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(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as time of publication.)
Houston Astros (31-25) at Toronto Blue Jays (29-25) at 7:07 p.m. EDT
Toronto:
MONEYLINE: -138
RUNLINE: -1.5 +142
Houston:
MONEYLINE: +115
RUNLINE: +1.5 -171
Total:
OVER 8.5: -103
UNDER 8.5: -117
The Jays are coming off a dramatic 6–5 comeback win over the Miami Marlins on Thursday night. They’ve now won two straight, and are 6-4 in their last 10. The Astros, meanwhile, are 5-5 over their last 10, and are 11-12 on the road this season.
Friday’s game brings us a super tasty/interesting pitching matchup. Hyun Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) gets the start for Toronto while Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) gets the ball for Houston.
Since the start of the 2020 season, if you’ve been betting the Blue Jays blindly in Ryu starts, you’ve been in the black. Toronto is 16-6 (.727 winning %) overall when the lefty starts a game for the Blue Jays, and has also been steady when pitching at Sahlen Field. The 34-year-old left-hander is 2-0 in five career starts in Buffalo with a 2.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. While the Jays haven’t given Ryu a ton of support in those starts (just 3.8 runs per game), they’re still 5-0 in them.
When Greinke faced the Blue Jays in Houston on May 9, he gave up four runs on nine hits in four innings on 88 pitches for the a no decision. But the veteran righty has been the beneficiary of some good run support this season. The Astros are 9-3 and have scored 5.33 runs per game when Greinke takes the mound.
Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays at -138: Toronto is a scorching 8-0 in their last eight games following an off day and 6-0 in their last six games against a right-handed starter. Those red-hot trends combined with a .727 winning percentage when Ryu starts gives you plenty of reasons to take the favourite.
Here’s why you take the Astros at +115: Houston is 4-0 in their last four games against the American League East. The Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 meetings versus the Blue Jays, and are scoring over five runs a game when Greinke is on the mound. Toronto is 0-6 in their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
Let’s dive into the total: The under is 5-0 in Toronto’s last five games following an off day, thanks to the fact mentioned above that the team is scoring just under four runs a game when Ryu is on the mound.
Picks: I lean the Blue Jays here on the moneyline at -138 and the under (8.5) at -117.
Player prop to watch: Randal Grichuk vs. Kyle Tucker for most total bases. Grichuk -105, Tucker -143 (via Bodog)
Grichuk is riding a hot streak with a slash line of .360/.385/.760 over his last seven games, and has 19 total bases (2.71 per game) in that span. That said, he has struggled against Greinke is his career, slashing .133/.133/.333 in 15 at-bats against the righty.
Tucker has also been swinging a hot bat of late with a slash line of .379/.483./621 over his own last seven games. He has 18 total bases in that span for an average of 2.57 per game. Tucker has never faced Ryu in his career, and has struggled on the road this season. In 23 games, he’s slashed just .175/.253/.338.
Factoring all that in — with Tucker going against a pitcher he’s never faced, and on the road to boot — I think there is value in taking Grichuk at -105.
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