After a loaded class headlined by Japanese star Ichiro Suzuki took its place in Cooperstown last summer, Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame voters returned to a ballot chock-full of intriguing holdovers and 12 first-timers for 2026.
The results of the BBWAA vote will be revealed on Tuesday night, when the baseball world learns who will take the stage with standout second baseman Jeff Kent in the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2026. Kent, of course, was elected to the Hall by the Contemporary Era Committee in December after a 17-year career that left him among the most prolific offensive performers at his position.
Thanks to the work of Ryan Thibodaux and his team, who track Hall of Fame ballots released early to the public, we can get an idea of who is trending for election before the official announcement.
It's unlikely this year's group of inductees will be as large as last year's five-player class, but this could be the cycle that sees a pair of centre-fielders earn the call. And for those who aren't elected but remain on the ballot, it’s worth monitoring their year-over-year progress to gauge how they might fare in the future.
As of Monday night, Thibodaux's tracker had logged 222 of an estimated 424 ballots, giving us a decent peek behind the curtain at where things stand heading into election night. As always, players must receive 75 per cent of the vote to secure their place among baseball's immortals or more than five per cent to stick on the ballot next year.
Leading candidates for election in 2026
Carlos Beltrán (89.2 per cent)
Fourth time appears to be the charm for Beltrán, who rides into the home stretch as this year's top vote-getter. If not for a prominent role in the Houston Astros' 2017 sign-stealing scandal, Beltrán may have already taken his spot in Cooperstown, that's how strong his résumé is.
Across 20 MLB seasons, the switch-hitting centre-fielder collected nine all-star nods, three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and the 1999 American League Rookie of the Year trophy, with the counting stats to back it up. Beltrán totalled 2,725 hits, 435 home runs, 565 doubles, 1,587 RBIs, 312 stolen bases and 70.0 bWAR in his major-league career.
Using FanGraphs writer Jay Jaffe's JAWS metric — which averages a player's career WAR and their seven-year peak WAR — Beltrán ranks ninth all-time among centre-fielders and ahead of the likes of Richie Ashburn, Andre Dawson and Larry Doby. In fact, only seven of the 19 Hall of Famers at the position grade higher in JAWS than the Puerto Rican star.
Andruw Jones (83.3 per cent)
The path to Hall of Fame consideration has been a long one for Jones, who is in his ninth year on the ballot this cycle. The longtime Atlanta Brave debuted with just 7.3 per cent of the vote in 2018, when he was surrounded by names such as Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Larry Walker and Scott Rolen — just a few of the Cooperstown residents from that stacked ballot. But Jones has slowly worked his way into a position where it seems likely, if not nearly certain, that he will become the first Curaçaoan to be inducted, either this year or next.
Jones' case is largely built on his work in the outfield, where he grades out as the best centre-fielder ever by defensive WAR. Jones is also the owner of 10 Gold Glove Awards, a total that only three other outfielders — Ichiro Suzuki, Ken Griffey Jr. and Al Kaline — have matched in a career.
There's no doubt Jones' glove puts him into rarefied air, but he was no slouch with the bat either. The five-time all-star blasted 434 home runs in his career, including 51 in 2005, drove in 1,289 runs and collected 1,933 hits, helping his teams to the playoffs in 11 of his 17 seasons. Additionally, Jones ranks just two spots behind Beltrán on the JAWS leaderboard, checking in 11th all-time among centre-fielders.
Candidates trending upward
Chase Utley (68.5 per cent)
Utley has seen a surge in his vote totals this cycle after finishing the 2025 voting period on 39.8 per cent of BBWAA ballots. It bodes well for his future chances of claiming a spot in baseball history, as while the six-time all-star doesn't quite have the typical longevity of a Hall of Famer, his peak helps his case considerably. Between 2005 and 2011, Utley generated 49.3 WAR for the Philadelphia Phillies, the second-best total of any position player in that timeframe. The 68.5 per cent mark will surely drop once the entire electorate weighs in, but taking a big leap in his third year on the ballot has Utley on track to eventually break into the Hall.
Andy Pettitte (57.2 per cent)
In his eighth year on the ballot, time is running out for Pettitte’s case to resonate with voters. However, the five-time World Series champion has appeared to make some inroads in the last two voting periods, taking a 13.4 per cent jump in 2025 and tracking for another significant leap this time around. It's a lot of ground to make up in such little time, but we've seen recent late pushes from the likes of Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker result in summer celebrations, so perhaps Pettitte could be setting the stage for a mad dash to induction. The longtime Yankee relies heavily upon his post-season work in his Cooperstown sell, where he holds the MLB record for most playoff starts and innings pitched.
Félix Hernández (56.8 per cent)
The breakout story of this voting cycle, "King Félix" has taken a major step forward in his second year of eligibility. After receiving 20.6 per cent of the vote in 2025, Hernández appears to mark a changing of attitudes toward what constitutes a Hall of Fame pitcher. The 2010 AL Cy Young winner was arguably the top starter in the early 2010s, as he racked up 41.9 WAR between 2008 and 2015 while carrying a 2.90 ERA over 1,796.2 innings. Like Utley's, Hernández's case comes down to how much voters value peak versus longevity, a debate that will only become more prevalent in the future as pitching continues to evolve.
Cole Hamels (31.5 per cent)
Last year, we saw Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia become first-ballot Hall of Famers, and while none of this year's newcomers will claim that distinction, Hamels is off to an especially strong start. Boasting a case that compares to those of Pettitte and Hernández, Hamels is trending toward a stronger debut cycle than both contemporaries — Pettitte debuted at 9.9 per cent and Hernández at 20.6. Once again, Hamels may not have the full body of work as your traditional Hall of Fame ace, but the southpaw from San Diego has an impressive playoff résumé, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honours in 2008. It may be too early to tell which direction Hamels will trend with more time on the ballot, but there’s no doubt that any number north of 20 per cent would represent an excellent start to his Hall of Fame candidacy.
Each of Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Dustin Pedroia, Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Rodríguez, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Vizquel and David Wright is on pace to receive at least five per cent of the vote and remain on the ballot.
Candidates set to fall off the ballot
Manny Ramírez (40.5 per cent in 10th year)
The only player in his 10th and final shot at induction through the BBWAA ballot in 2026, Ramírez will likely join the group of stars hoping enough time passes for an Era Committee to vote him in, despite ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Ramírez undoubtedly has the statistical case for a spot in Cooperstown, but he will now have to wait for another chance, a process that hasn't been kind to steroid-linked players.
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were dealt a blow to their Hall of Fame hopes in December, when the Contemporary Era Committee issued them fewer than five votes, meaning they can't appear on the ballot again until 2031.
Ryan Braun (2.7 per cent)
Edwin Encarnación (0.9 per cent)
Shin-Soo Choo (0.5 per cent)
Hunter Pence (0.5 per cent)
Rick Porcello (0.5 per cent)
Gio González (0 per cent)
Alex Gordon (0 per cent)
Matt Kemp (0 per cent)
Howie Kendrick (0 per cent)
Nick Markakis (0 per cent)
Daniel Murphy (0 per cent)
All of the first-timers above appear destined to go one-and-done on the Hall of Fame ballot. Braun and Encarnación are the only two entering the final day with more than two votes on public ballots.
2:59
