The Toronto Blue Jays dropped a second straight game on Thursday, but the club continues to close in on not only a return to the post-season, but also an AL East title and first-round bye.
Sitting at 89-64 after a 4-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Blue Jays hold a four-game lead over the New York Yankees in the division, and they could be just days away from clinching their spot in October.
With many possible outcomes to be decided over the final weeks of the regular season, here is a look at Toronto's path to claiming its spot in the 2025 playoff picture.
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Broadcast schedule
Magic number guide
Baseball's "magic number" refers to how close a team is to clinching its playoff spot and represents the combined number of wins it needs and losses its closest rival needs to clinch.
MLB.com lists the magic number formula (altered here to include the Blue Jays' position) as follows:
Blue Jays' games remaining +1 - (Losses by chasing team - Blue Jays' losses)
The formula doesn't account for any tiebreakers, which come down to head-to-head record. Thanks to their dominant play against fellow contenders, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over each team remaining in the AL playoff race except for the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians.
Make sure to follow along here on Sportsnet.ca through the end of September as we update each of Toronto's clinching scenarios, using the magic number.
Post-season berth magic number: 3
As things stand, the Blue Jays' magic number for simply clinching a spot in the American League playoff bracket depends on the non-playoff team closest to a wild-card spot — the Guardians.
Cleveland beat the Detroit Tigers again on Thursday, keeping Toronto's magic number at three.
This means that any combination of three Toronto wins and Guardians losses would result in the Blue Jays clinching a playoff berth.
AL East title magic number: 6
The Yankees (86-67) beat the Minnesota Twins on Thursday, meaning the Blue Jays were not able to move closer to their first division crown since 2015.
The Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch the AL East is down to six. That figure accounts for the tiebreaker they hold over New York, having won the season series 8–5.
As of Wednesday night, FanGraphs projected Toronto with a 93.5 per cent chance to win the division, compared with 6.4 per cent for the Yankees.
Once again, the Blue Jays would win the AL East if they win and the Yankees lose six total combined games.
First-round bye magic number: 5*
*AL East must also be clinched
With the Tigers (85-68) currently ahead of the Astros (84-69) by one game, it's Houston that decides Toronto's magic number for a bye past the wild-card series and through to the ALDS.
The Astros hold the season series tiebreaker against the Blue Jays, meaning the magic number to clinch a top-two spot is five.
Since the bye magic number is smaller than the one to clinch the AL East, the Blue Jays must still secure the division first — meaning the East race ultimately determines when they can actually lock down the bye.
The red-hot Mariners (83-69) saw their 10-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday, which, combined with an Astros win, dropped them back into the wild card. The Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, meaning if Seattle retakes the AL West lead, Toronto's magic number to clinch a bye is also five.
As far as clinching home-field advantage through the AL side of the playoffs goes, Toronto's magic number vs. Detroit stands at six with the tiebreaker.
Current relevant American League series
Toronto @ Tampa Bay (Thursday: 4-0, Rays)
N.Y. Yankees @ Minnesota (Thursday: 7-0, Yankees)
Boston vs. Athletics (Thursday: 5-3, Athletics)
Cleveland @ Detroit (Thursday: 3-1, Guardians)
Seattle @ Kansas City (Thursday: 2-0, Mariners)
