How Blue Jays' schedule stacks up against other wild-card contenders

Several factors will determine whether the Toronto Blue Jays’ push for a playoff spot is successful, and one that could play a significant role is their schedule — and the schedules of their direct rivals.

The Blue Jays have a difficult week ahead, going to Tampa Bay and New York, but beyond those series, all of their games will be played against teams that have sub-.500 records. That’s good news for a team with a .549 winning percentage against those clubs this year and a .440 percentage against teams above .500.

That doesn’t mean that Toronto is in for a cakewalk. Understanding the effect the schedule is likely to have on the race requires a closer look at a variety of factors.

When examining how the schedule could affect the wild-card race, the most intuitive thing to look at is strength of schedule. It’s not a perfect measure, as injuries, in-season acquisitions and how a team is playing can mean its overall record isn’t fully reflective of the challenge they present on a given day.

To account for this, FanGraphs’ SOS metric is based on how many games opponents are projected to win rather than their literal record. Comparing the Blue Jays' basic and advanced strength-of-schedule marks with other teams positioned to fight for the third AL wild-card spot provides a good overview of where they stand.

Home/road splits are a bit simplistic, and outside of extreme ballparks that warp how the game is played, they are unlikely to inspire extensive and fascinating discussion. It’s often hard to quantify the value of things like the ability to stick to a precise routine, familiarity with a home ballpark and home teams’ likelihood of being less fatigued than their opponents.

Still, in the vast majority of cases, teams are significantly better at home than away, so it matters how the locations of games are distributed down the stretch. This is an area where Toronto is at a disadvantage in the weeks to come.

Games against fellow third wild-card contenders

The extent to which this is an advantage changes depending on where you are in the race. Notably, Toronto has far more chances to hand its rivals losses than its competition, but that could be a mixed blessing, depending on how the team performs in those games. If the Blue Jays slip in August, clawing their way back might be slightly easier because a September surge could come at the expense of other wild-card hopefuls.

The team most affected by this situation is likely the Mariners, because they are chasing six teams in this race and don’t have many opportunities to hurt the teams ahead.

Breaking the Blue Jays’ schedule into smaller chunks doesn’t change any of the overall numbers, but it adds a little context. While Toronto’s strength of schedule isn’t significantly softer than their competitors', the team’s tough matchups are front-loaded. 

If a piece in this exact format ran next Monday, it would show the Blue Jays don’t have as tough a road as the other wild-card hopefuls. The catch there is that the club has to survive a difficult week ahead on the road. Toronto is coming off a series win against the Yankees, but they are no easy foe and the Blue Jays’ struggles at Tropicana Field are well documented.

If the Blue Jays are in a comparable position in the wild-card race as they are now in a week, their chances of making the playoffs will jump significantly. 

The Blue Jays should consider the schedule as favourable to them, but not to a radical degree. The team has an extremely difficult week ahead that will significantly impact its prospects, and plays on the road more than any club in the race. The Blue Jays' large allotment of games against other wild-card contenders could be beneficial, but could also hurt them if they have a cold stretch at the wrong moment. 

Sitting one game out of a playoff spot with 36 remaining isn’t a bad place to be. In the context of where the Blue Jays were three weeks ago, it’s an unbelievable spot. The schedule looks like it will be more helpful than harmful down the stretch, but the Blue Jays will still need to capitalize on the opportunities before them — and hope none of the other teams in the race go on a massive run like the Boston Red Sox’s 27-3 stretch that vaulted them above the crowded field midway through the season.