A great deal of the fun during the MLB off-season is seeing big, familiar names linked to the team you support, and dreaming about how they might change that team’s fortunes. If you’re a Toronto Blue Jays fan, this year has been particularly fruitful in that regard as the club has been connected to every major free agent and trade target under the sun.
Sometimes, however, the most exciting moves a team can make are the exact opposite of snagging the pitcher the entire fanbase is intimately familiar with. Instead, it’s bringing in a big-time international free agent with a track record of stardom in another league, but little to no name recognition in North America. These players have a combination of upside and bust potential that makes them fascinating to watch.
This year, there’s a particularly strong crop of international free agents, many of them at positions of need for the Blue Jays. Although the Shun Yamaguchi experience failed for Toronto in 2020, it showed a willingness to dabble in markets the franchise has rarely touched. If this club is willing to do that again, they could be rewarded with a far better result this time around.
Here are the biggest names in the international market that the Blue Jays could consider:
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Ha-Seong Kim
Age: 25
Position: SS/3B
Bats: Right
2020 stats: .306/.397/.523 (141 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 23 stolen bases
Blue Jays fit: Kim is the biggest prize on the market thanks to his combination of age and production. The 25-year-old took a major step forward with the bat in 2019 and carried it over to 2020, proving he could be one of the KBO’s top offensive stars while manning a premium defensive position.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked him as the seventh-best free agent available overall and predicted he’d earn $40 million on a five-year deal. FanGraphs had him eighth and forecast a five-year, $60 million contract. Their projection system ZiPS also gave him an extremely aggressive projection that sees him as close to a four-win player for the next five seasons.
Considering how well his age meshes with the Blue Jays core, the fact they need another starting infielder and the bargain he could be if he meets his projections, it’s easy to see Kim as a fit. You could even make the argument that as an ascending team rather than a favourite, the Blue Jays are capable of taking on the risk that Kim represents because if he falls flat at the MLB level, it’s probably not the difference between winning or losing the World Series in 2021.
For all of the positives with Kim, the magnitude of his downside is significant. It’s really tough to project the offensive performance of a player who’s facing worse pitching with significantly lower velocity in the KBO. There’s a reason that of the six Korean position players to reach the MLB since 2015, only Ji-Man Choi and Jung-ho Kang found success with the bat. Kang might be the best comparison for Kim as a middle infielder who arrived before his 30th birthday, but his year prior to reaching the majors (189 wRC+ with 40 home runs) was significantly better.
Whether Kim can catch up to MLB heat consistently will be a valid question, although Baseball America is bullish on his ability to do just that after an adjustment period.
Sung-bum Na
Age: 31
Position: RF/LF
Bats: Left
2020 stats: .324/.390/.596 (155 wRC+) with 34 home runs and three stolen bases
Blue Jays fit: Na is an obvious target for the Blue Jays in the sense that they could use a left-handed power bat, but defensively speaking it’s a little tougher to see how he’d slot in. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made the transition back to third that he’s attempting this off-season, Na could join the Blue Jays corner outfield picture rotating through the DH spot occasionally. The 31-year-old is a former centre fielder, but at this point he belongs in a corner, ideally right due to his above-average arm.
Looking beyond the murky roster fit, Na is a heck of a hitter. The veteran’s 155 wRC+ was fourth and his home run total ranked third. The only red flag in 2020 was his strikeout rate (25.3 per cent), which is a bit higher than his career average. If that’s any indication of flagging bat speed, that could hurt the veteran’s MLB future.
All those numbers are tricky to parse, especially without something like Statcast to supplement them, but it’s clear that Na hits the ball hard. The six-foot, 220-pound outfielder has rare strength, which shows up on home runs he’s able to muscle over the wall when he doesn’t get all of a pitch…
…and balls he hits the other way.
Because he’s over 30, and his value is tied up in his offensive production, Na is unlikely to require a massive deal — although he is represented by Scott Boras for whatever that’s worth. He’s not someone who you sign assuming he’ll be a long-term solution like Kim, but he has the potential to significantly bolster a lineup in the near term.
Kohei Arihara
Age: 28
Position: SP
Throws: Right
2020 stats: 7.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 with a 3.46 ERA in 132.2 innings
Blue Jays fit: The Blue Jays are looking for starting pitching, and younger players who can be part of a sustainable winner, which should put Arihara on their radar.
While the right-hander’s 2020 numbers don’t jump off the page, especially compared to Yamaguchi’s 2019 numbers (9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 with a 2.78 ERA), he has several qualities that make him intriguing.
For one, he has a big-league fastball. Last season his velocity averaged 92.3 m.p.h. in a starting role, compared to the 90.8 m.p.h. Yamaguchi managed in relief. Arihara has been known to radically change speeds, letting his heater sit between 88 and 95 m.p.h. in individual starts. It’s possible at the major-league level he might be instructed to bring the floor on that range up slightly, although the deception worked in Japan.
Arihara also brings a dizzying repertoire to the table. According to Japanese baseball expert Jim Allen, he threw six different pitches at least 10 per cent of the time, something no qualified starter managed in 2020 – although with some pitchers like Yu Darvish, you could probably slice the definitions a few ways. The mix broke down like this:
It’s an extremely difficult arsenal to find a comp for. Since 2002 — when FanGraphs started pitch tracking — there have been 1459 qualified starter seasons. Precisely one of them has involved a pitcher throwing between 25-30 per cent four-seamers and no other pitch over 20 per cent of the time.
That pitcher was Yu Darvish in his rookie season of 2012. It wouldn’t be fair to expect Arihara to throw up a 4.7. WAR campaign in his first taste of MLB action, but Sports Info Solutions called him a potential middle of the rotation starter in 2021 when they scouted him in 2019.
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Tomoyuki Sugano
Age: 31
Position: SP
Throws: Right
2020 stats: 8.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 with a 3.46 ERA in 137.1 innings
Blue Jays fit: On statistical achievements alone, Sugano is extremely impressive. The right-hander has a career ERA of 2.34 in the NPB, and he’s sat at 2.01 or below in four of his last six seasons. He’s won the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young (the Sawamura award) twice and the league MVP in 2014.
With a fastball in the 89-92 m.p.h. range complimented by a hard slider and splitter, Sugano has less impressive raw stuff than Arihara, but it’s impossible to question his pedigree or production. He’s also got exceptional control and command, resulting in a BB/9 that has never exceeded 2.1 in a single season.
Seeing as Sugano is a Japanese pitcher in his 30s with great stats in the NPB but unimpressive velocity, it’s understandable to see the parallels to Yamaguchi. In some ways they are valid. However, it is worth noting that Sugano has been a consistently dominant starter in Japan whereas Yamaguchi bounced between roles and only had two years as a starter with a sub-3 ERA (2019 and 2016) before coming over. Sugano has posted six.
Sports Info Solutions called Sugano a number four MLB starter when they saw him in 2019, which was the worst year of his career. While he’s not going to blow hitters away at the next level, he clearly knows how to navigate a lineup, hit his spots, and make the most of what’s in his arsenal. That may not be enough for him to be an impact arm at the next level, but he’s about as reliable an international free agent as you’re going to find.
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