TORONTO — A little more than halfway through the 2026 season, the Toronto Blue Jays have five weeks and 27 games to go before the trade deadline.
Now 40-45, the Blue Jays are two games behind the final American League wild-card spot in a tightly contested race. With a great week, they can be back at .500 again. At the same time, they can’t afford to wait much longer to turn their season around.
With that in mind, basically everything’s on the table as the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches. It’s still possible the Blue Jays could be motivated buyers, reluctant-but-pragmatic sellers or anywhere in between.
“We all would like to be in a better spot,” George Springer said after Monday’s win over the New York Mets. “Everyone understands that. At the end of the day, I know we've done a lot of good things (and) we still have (77) games to go. But I think everyone in that locker room understands we have to play better. And I think over time, guys are going to start to do that.”
Ideally, the Blue Jays want to contend — and buy — in an attempt to build on the success of 2025. That’s still Plan A. And as long as they prove to be worthy of further investment, GM Ross Atkins has shown he’ll buy when necessary, trading prospects for big leaguers when competitive at the deadline in 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025.
Mind you, the same front office has also shown a willingness to pivot if the chances of reaching the playoffs sink far enough, as evidenced by the 2024 selloff that yielded future big leaguers like Yohendrick Pinango, Charles McAdoo and (indirectly) Brandon Valenzuela.
In the end, the results on the field will determine what’s next, putting pressure on the players to deliver. In the meantime, let’s take an early look at some of the scenarios that could unfold…
If the struggles worsen
Over the course of their last 27 games, the Blue Jays have gone 11-16. If they were to repeat those results leading up to Aug. 3, they’d arrive at the deadline 51-61 and likely have no choice but to sell.
Pending free agents who could generate trade interest: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, Daulton Varsho, Springer.
Others who could generate trade interest: Jeff Hoffman, Jesus Sanchez
Toughest decision: Turning the page on a group that made it to the World Series would be painful — and likely won’t be done unless it’s clearly the only move they have left.
Logical trade stance: Trade pending free agents for prospects and young big leaguers; listen on Hoffman and Sanchez; show a willingness to eat money for better prospect returns.
Where front office resources would go: At a certain point, the Blue Jays would have to shift away from buyer mode and devote more resources than usual to assessing the farm systems of contending teams.
If Blue Jays stay in murky middle
As Gausman pointed out earlier this month, sometimes it feels like the Blue Jays take two steps forward and two steps back. Let’s say that trend continues and the Blue Jays bounce back a little, go 15-12 over the next five weeks and reach the deadline with a 55-57 record. In that scenario, the Blue Jays may be buyers even under .500 as long as the American League stays open and their playoff odds are reasonably high.
Potential areas of need: Starting rotation, bullpen, right-handed bench bat.
Toughest decision: Which prospects can be surrendered to augment an MLB team that’s at or even below .500.
Logical trade stance: Show a willingness to part with prospects for short-term upgrades; prioritize big leaguers with remaining years of control where possible; take on money if it means giving up fewer prospects or acquiring a better player; be open-minded to scenarios where they simultaneously buy (for instance a starting pitcher) and sell (for instance an outfielder).
Where front office resources go: The front office would be put to the test in this scenario because the final decision on how to proceed might not come until late. Logistically, this might be the toughest to execute because so many possibilities would remain in play as the next five weeks unfold.
If the Blue Jays go on a run
OK, so best-case scenario. The Blue Jays finally start putting it all together. They one-up last year’s 18-8 July and go 19-8 over their next 27 games to reach the deadline 59-53. Not only are they likely in a playoff spot in that scenario, they have some of their swagger back. The next step is clear: it’s time to buy.
Potential areas of need: Starting rotation, bullpen, right-handed bench bat.
Toughest decision: How hard to push.
Logical trade stance: The basic buying strategy would remain the same here. Only this time, there would likely be significantly more willingness to sacrifice long-term positioning for short-term gains.
Where front office resources go: It’s not like the Blue Jays will stop paying attention to the farm systems of the Phillies or Dodgers if they’re buyers. Like any responsible team they’ll cover all 29 of their rivals no matter what. But the sooner the Blue Jays show they’re clear buyers, the sooner the front office can narrow its focus and devote extra attention to what the sellers are selling.
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