Mapping out the off-season: 10 hypothetical paths ahead for the Blue Jays

TORONTO — When the Toronto Blue Jays’ season ended, I suspected it might take a while before I had much interest in thinking about the team's upcoming off-season. The season is long to begin with, and this one wasn’t particularly energizing. 

But as it turns out, the question of what their off-season looks like was hard to resist. Within a few days, I was mapping out the Blue Jays’ needs, looking at the free-agent list and wondering about trade targets. Soon enough, I had a couple ideas about how it might all come together.

But there’s no point creating scenarios that aren’t somewhat grounded in reality. The Blue Jays can’t just sign all the best players, make one-sided trades or forget about basic roster construction principles, like the need for two catchers and a backup shortstop.  

So as I proceeded, I created limitations for myself to mirror the challenges facing the Blue Jays’ front office. For instance, I’m assuming the Blue Jays can add at least $40 million to $45 million in payroll, but I set a hard cap at $50 million in new money. (Though I did break my self-imposed rules once, as you’ll see below.)

Taking into account the needs and approximate payroll ceiling of the team, I kept the trade and free-agent scenarios as consistent and realistic as possible, bouncing them off a couple of industry sources to be sure my estimates aren’t too far removed from reality.

But to be very clear, this is a speculative exercise rather than a sourced report. And realistically, this would be an impossible piece to source in October, because each roster move informs the next all winter long. No one in the Blue Jays’ front office knows everything that's going to happen this off-season, not even Mark Shapiro or Ross Atkins.

The 10 scenarios I've mapped out below include 31 possible acquisitions, from splashy signings in free agency to low-profile trades. Some of these moves would be popular, others would leave fans wanting. Most won’t happen, but I expect one or two will. And although none of these imagined rosters are intended as predictions in and of themselves, I hope the collection of scenarios helps paint a picture of what’s ahead … 

1. The unthinkable happens 

• Sign Shohei Ohtani to an 11-year, $489.5-million contract 

• Sign Jeimer Candelario to a two-year, $26-million contract

• Sign Harrison Bader to a one-year, $9-million contract

• Sign Lance Lynn to a one-year, $7.5-million contract

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Acquire prospects or cash considerations for Santiago Espinal

2024 spend (using MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates): $85.5 million

Would the team be good?: Yes, very

Reality check: Highly unlikely

Why not dream big, right? The belief around the industry is that Ohtani's top priority is winning, and that he has a preference for West Coast teams, all things being equal. The Blue Jays, then, are long shots at best. But why not start at the top? With Ohtani, the Blue Jays would instantly have one of the game's most formidable lineups. And while he won't pitch next year, he'd help the pitching staff starting in 2025.

This scenario looks as unlikely as it is appealing, though. It’s far easier to see Ohtani landing with the Dodgers, Mariners or Rangers. Still, here's how the Blue Jays might shape up after landing the biggest name available.

2. Win the Bellinger sweepstakes

• Sign Cody Bellinger to a seven-year, $168-million contract

• Sign Adam Duvall to a one-year, $9-million contract

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Evan Longoria to a one-year, $4-million contract

• Acquire Jake Fraley for Nate Pearson and Spencer Horwitz

• Acquire prospects or cash considerations for Santiago Espinal

2024 spend: $42.9 million

Would the team be good?: Yes

Reality check: Plausible 

Bellinger is a really good player. He's fast, powerful, defensively skilled and still just 28 years old. This past year with the Cubs, the results were there: 26 home runs, an .881 OPS and a career-best strikeout rate. Now, the advanced metrics say he benefited from some good fortune as well, but he’s a legitimate star.

As the roster card below shows, the Blue Jays would still need plenty of additional help. But Fraley is an appealing left-handed hitting outfielder with three years of team control remaining, and Duvall would complement that skillset from the right side. This team would mash, but it would need good health from its pitchers and likely a minor-league deal or two to create competition in the rotation.

Still, it’s a viable path ahead — especially if the Blue Jays truly believe in Alek Manoah and Bowden Francis.

3. Bring back Piña Power

• Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a four-year, $72-million contract

• Sign Michael Lorenzen to a two-year, $22-million contract

• Sign Joc Pederson to a one-year, $12-million contract

• Sign Evan Longoria to a one-year, $4-million contract

• Acquire Dylan Carlson for Alek Manoah

2024 spend: $45.8 million

Would the team be good?: Probably

Reality check: It’s easier to see Gurriel Jr. signing elsewhere 

Among the best free agents available? Familiar names Matt Chapman, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. All are good players, but for the sake of this exercise I'm going with Gurriel Jr., who's entering his age-30 season.

Also included in this scenario is what amounts to a Pederson/Carlson platoon. In doing this exercise, I realized the Blue Jays are well equipped to set up a couple of platoons for 2023. They have lots of roster spots to play with, so they’d do well to pair righty mashers Cavan Biggio, Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Joc Pederson with lefty mashers Davis Schneider, Dylan Carlson, Amed Rosario, Tommy Pham and Duvall.

But ultimately, if the Blue Jays were willing to trade Gurriel Jr. away last winter, are they going to build their off-season around him this time? It seems unlikely. And although Chapman would be a fit on paper, it’s easier to see him landing elsewhere, too.

Also, this is as good a place as any to mention that I just don't see the Blue Jays trading Guerrero Jr. after a season in which he underperformed his career norms. So, while there will surely be speculation to that effect, I'm not expecting it to happen.

4. Punt on defence

• Sign Jorge Soler to a three-year, $48-million contract

• Sign J.D. Martinez to a one-year, $18.5-million contract

• Sign Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $6.5-million contract

• Sign James Paxton to a one-year, $5-million contract

• Acquire Dylan Carlson for Alek Manoah

• Acquire Jorge Polanco for Yusei Kikuchi

• Acquire prospects for Trevor Richards

2024 spend: $44.9 million

Would the team be good?: Not good enough; defence matters

Reality check: Zero per cent chance 

We're off the deep end here. There's no chance the Blue Jays do this. The pitching looks thin and the defence looks worse. Locking Soler and Springer out of the DH mix comes with tonnes of risk before you even get to second and third, which don’t exactly project as Gold Glove positions either. But if nothing else, this would be one of baseball’s best lineups — nightmare-inducing stuff for left-handed starters.

As for the Richards deal, it’s purely designed to free up cash.

5. Go all-in on run prevention

• Sign Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $32-million contract, backloaded

• Sign Kevin Kiermaier to a two-year, $23-million contract

• Sign Joe Jimenez to a two-year, $18-million contract

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Andrew McCutchen to a one-year, $3-million contract

• Acquire prospects for Trevor Richards

• Acquire prospects or cash considerations for Santiago Espinal

2024 spend: $48.6 million

Would the team be good?: Maybe

Reality check: Unlikely  

So far, the scenarios presented are built around scoring runs. What if the Blue Jays went in the other direction and doubled down on defence? Kiermaier is as good as it gets, and the addition of a starter such as Maeda would make the Blue Jays' rotation that much deeper.

There’s real pitching depth here. Plus, it's not as though this team couldn't score at all. It would just mean relying on the existing core to deliver much of that offence. It might not be popular, but it could work. The problem is, this configuration would be an injury away from overexposing hitters best used in complementary roles. It’s too risky.

One note here: I actually like lining up the three lefties like this against right-handed starters. When opposing managers go to lefty relievers at Biggio’s spot, John Schneider could swap in McCutchen, Rosario and Davis Schneider to regain the platoon advantage.

6. A balanced approach

• Sign Jeimer Candelario to a two-year, $26-million contract

• Sign Rhys Hoskins to a one-year, $20-million contract

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Acquire Jake Fraley for Nate Pearson and Spencer Horwitz

• Acquire prospects or cash considerations for Santiago Espinal

2024 spend: $45.9 million

Would the team be good?: Yes

Reality check: Plausible 

This is actually a pretty good team. Hoskins on a one- or two-year deal would be a great pickup for the Blue Jays; Rosario would offer defensive versatility and a career .806 OPS against lefties; Kiner-Falefa is another bounce-back candidate who offers youth and defence; Fraley is an appealing bat for the strong side of a platoon.

Nothing about this group is especially splashy, and it’s thin on the pitching side, but throw in a few minor-league deals for arms and this would work. Of the scenarios presented so far, this might be the most believable. 

7. An even more balanced approach

• Sign Josh Bell to a two-year, $34-million contract

• Sign Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $32-million contract

• Sign David Robertson to a one-year, $5.5-million contract

• Sign Gio Urshela to a one-year, $3-million contract

• Acquire Jake Fraley for Nate Pearson and Spencer Horwitz

• Acquire Dylan Carlson for Alek Manoah

2024 spend: $43.7 million

Would the team be good?: Probably 

Reality check: Plausible 

This plan would give the Blue Jays depth in the rotation, a little bullpen help and a few interesting hitters. Furthering the sense of balance, two of the position players here are switch hitters and there's no possibility of a long-term contract backfiring. It's not especially exciting, but at the end of the day, this addresses key needs without compromising the team long-term. 

8. Max out the Can-Con

• Sign Kevin Kiermaier to a two-year, $23-million contract

• Sign Joey Votto to a one-year, $8-million contract, plus incentives

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Sign James Paxton to a one-year, $5-million contract

• Acquire Tyler O'Neill and prospects for Alek Manoah 

• Acquire prospects or cash considerations for Santiago Espinal

2024 spend: $41.5 million

Would the team be good?: If everything broke right

Reality check: Not happening 

OK, I know I’m pushing it here with all these Canadians. This team would contend, but there's lots of playing-time risk once you add Votto, Paxton and O'Neill to the same roster. Of all the scenarios I've put together, this is the one that gives me the least confidence. Too bad. Would be fun.

9. Trade your way to the top

• Sign Michael Lorenzen to a two-year, $22-million contract

• Sign Rhys Hoskins to a one-year, $20-million contract

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Acquire Willy Adames for Santiago Espinal, Chad Dallas, Connor Cooke and Landen Maroudis

• Acquire Jake Fraley for Nate Pearson and Spencer Horwitz

2024 spend: $49.3 million

Would the team be good?: Yes

Reality check: Plausible 

Adames is a really good player who's a year away from free agency and getting expensive in arbitration. Might the small-market Brewers consider trading him? If so, an off-season haul built around Adames and Hoskins would look great (Adames hasn’t played third in the majors, but he possesses the tools to do so). 

This scenario got expensive pretty quickly, so I have Clement breaking camp with the team instead of a more established player. Also — I keep inserting Rosario since he’s a great fit on paper, but if he lands elsewhere, the Blue Jays could simply keep Espinal or turn to someone such as Donovan Solano or Gio Urshela for a one-year deal in a complementary role. 

Bottom line, though, this would be a strong roster.

10. International excellence

• Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a seven-year, $154-million contract

• Sign Joey Votto to a one-year, $8-million contract, plus incentives

• Sign Amed Rosario to a one-year, $7-million contract

• Acquire Willy Adames for Santiago Espinal, Chad Dallas, Connor Cooke and Landen Maroudis

• Acquire Dylan Carlson for Alek Manoah

2024 spend: $47.7 million

Would the team be good?: Yes

Reality check: Plausible 

Signing the 25-year-old Yamamoto would be a coup for a Blue Jays team that’s been very active in scouting the Pacific Rim in recent years. It's not yet certain that Yamamoto will be posted, but if he's available, there will be lots of interest. He hasn't had an ERA above 1.68 in any of the last three NPB seasons.

The Blue Jays are a little light on position players in this scenario, opening the door for a prospect such as Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger to break through next summer. But their rotation would be the envy of baseball and their offence would look promising enough. This team could win a lot of games.

Graphics by Drew Lesiuczok.