TORONTO – It’s easy enough to say the right things, as Steve Cohen did after becoming the New York Mets’ owner earlier this off-season. And to be fair, the near-continuous blunders of the team’s previous ownership group helped assure Cohen of a warm welcome.
Far more challenging is following those words up with actions, but on that front the Mets are delivering. First, they brought back starter Marcus Stroman when he accepted the qualifying offer. Then they signed catcher James McCann on a four-year, $40.6-million deal. And on Thursday they completed what will likely be the biggest move of the MLB off-season, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and starter Carlos Carrasco for shortstops Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez along with prospects Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene.
"We're trying to change the reality, and let the perception follow," Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters afterwards.
With that blockbuster trade, the Mets are clearly an ascending team in the National League. Even before adding McCann and Lindor, their offence tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball last year. Now, they’re even better offensively with an improved rotation as well.
Around baseball, this move has all kinds of implications. And as a team targeting many of the same players as the Mets, the Toronto Blue Jays are impacted more than most.
Starting with the obvious, let’s attempt to understand some of the ramifications.
A shifting infield market
The Blue Jays plan to add an infielder this winter, and we can now say definitively that they aren’t getting the best one available. Of course, there are still all kinds of options in free agency (DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Kolten Wong) and trade (Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Kris Bryant, Javy Baez).
With many names available, a clear need in Toronto, money to spend and prospects to trade, it would be stunning if the Blue Jays were shut out from the infield market altogether. They will almost certainly add here.
Still, the Blue Jays were in a better position when Lindor was available because his presence provided the club with an alternate path ahead in case they missed out on top free agents. Now, the best option of all is no longer on the market, and some possibilities are closed off for the Blue Jays as a result.
Fallout for top free agent position players
At a time that many teams are hesitant to add payroll, the Mets and Blue Jays stand out because of their interest in pursuing the best players available. As such, they’ve been linked to many of the same players, including LeMahieu and George Springer.
So, now that Lindor’s on the Mets, will they keep pursuing those free agents? As mentioned earlier, their offence is already strong, so there’s no urgent need here. At the same time, the best teams add onto their strengths.
The addition of Lindor might mean the Mets are less likely to pursue infielders like LeMahieu, but the Blue Jays’ main rivals for his services appear to be the Yankees and Dodgers, regardless. The LeMahieu market might not change all that much just yet.
As for Springer, it stands to reason the Mets would still have interest as Lindor doesn’t fundamentally change the complexion of their outfield. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Mets “remain involved” in talks for Springer, but Andy Martino of SNY reported that Springer is “less likely” for the Mets after the trade with Cleveland.
One variable to watch: the competitive balance tax. After the trade, the Mets now have $177.7 million committed to their 2021 payroll, or a little more than $30 million to work with before bumping up against the $210 million competitive balance tax. That could allow them to sign Springer and stay under, though not by much. According to Martino, the Mets would likely have to shed payroll to sign Springer, and if there's a silver lining for the Blue Jays in all of this that might be it.
Does Bauer lose a suitor?
While Lindor is undoubtedly the headliner here, Carrasco is a significant acquisition after an impressive comeback season in which he posted a 2.91 ERA in 68 innings. Add him to a rotation that already includes Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard and you have the potential for an elite starting staff.
In theory, that likely reduces the urgency for the Mets to add another starting pitcher and it’s possible it will take them out of the mix for Trevor Bauer altogether. In that case, the Blue Jays, who met with Bauer on New Year’s Eve, would face a little less competition should they decide to make the defending NL Cy Young winner an offer.
Big picture…
If you show interest in an elite player and he ends up going elsewhere that’s almost never a good thing. Lindor’s a potential Hall of Famer who would have made the Blue Jays a far better team in 2021. That much we can say definitively.
What we cannot say is this trade means the Blue Jays are doomed to a bad off-season. They’re still in on Springer, LeMahieu, Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand, plus trade targets and lower-tier free agents. They have the time, money and prospects required to address the many real needs on this team.
But just as the Mets’ blockbuster doesn’t doom the Blue Jays, the remaining opportunities in front of them don’t amount to guarantees, either. At some point, they have to turn that potential into real improvements. This roster still needs plenty of work.
