In life — and by extension, baseball — things do not always go the way they’re supposed to. But this year’s MLB Rookie of the Year finalists buck that trend, as many of them were destined for great things.
Alec Bohm and Kyle Lewis were first-round draft picks. Devin Williams was chosen in the second round. And Luis Robert, owner of a $26-million bonus as an international signee, was once a consensus top-three prospect in the sport.
These are the types of players who are supposed to compete for ROY honours. Now they are.
Don’t worry, we didn’t forget about the other finalists (Jake Cronenworth and Cristian Javier). Take a closer look at all the league’s top up-and-comers below:
National League
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Position: 3B/1B
2020 stats: GP: 44 | HR: 4 | AVG: .338 | OBP: .400 | SLG: .481 | OPS+: 136 | 0.7 bWAR
Bohm sprinted to ROY candidacy with seven multi-hit games in the final week and a half of the season. But he was solid throughout the year, too, tying for second among rookies in hits (54) and finishing third in doubles (11) despite missing more than a quarter of the season.
He was also second among rookies in all three slash line categories, a testament to his balance of contact and power.
And as a weird-but-noteworthy aside, Bohm doubled in his first and last at-bats of the season.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
Position: INF
2020 stats: GP: 54 | HR: 4 | AVG: .285 | OBP: .354 | SLG: .477 | OPS+: 128 | 1.4 bWAR
Five years ago, Jake Cronenworth was arguably a better prospect as a pitcher than as a hitter. Things have certainly changed since then for the former University of Michigan closer, who came to the Padres as the lesser-known asset in last December’s Tommy Pham trade.
All Cronenworth did in his first MLB season was lead rookies in doubles (15) and finish top-five in hits (49) and runs (26).
He was just outside the top-five in slugging percentage and OPS while playing 54 games, which is more than all but three rookies. So Cronenworth was able to rack up value (as noted by his 1.4 bWAR) despite not having the flashiest rate stats.
Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Position: RP
2020 stats: IP: 27.0 | ERA: 0.33 | FIP: 0.86 | K/9: 17.7 | WHIP: 0.630 | ERA+: 1375 | 1.2 bWAR
Warning: some of Williams’ numbers will look like typos, but I’m here to tell you they aren’t (yes, even the adjusted-ERA metric that suggests he was 1,275 per cent better than the average pitcher this year at preventing runs).
Trying to overstate the dominance of Williams in 2020 would be a fool’s errand. After allowing four runs (one earned) in his first four outings, he didn’t allow any runs in his final 18. On the season, he had 53 strikeouts while yielding just 18 baserunners (eight hits, 10 walks).
What’s working against him is the fact he only threw 27 innings, which isn’t many — even in a shortened season. Also, comparing him to Bohm and Cronenworth is an apples-to-oranges conundrum.
American League
Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
Position: CF
2020 stats: GP: 58 | HR: 11 | AVG: .262 | OBP: .364 | SLG: .437 | OPS+: 126 | 1.4 bWAR
No one is less surprised by how well Lewis performed this year than the man himself. After posting strong numbers as a September call-up in 2019 (19 hits, 131 OPS+ in 18 games), Lewis was ready to do damage in a full season.
He led all rookies in walks (34) and was tied for the lead in home runs, while finishing second in RBIs (28) and tied for second in hits (54).
Lewis cruised through the summer and might’ve won this award easily if not for a dismal September, in which he posted a .550 OPS with 33 strikeouts versus only 11 hits.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Position: SP
2020 stats: IP: 54.1 | ERA: 3.48 | FIP: 4.94 | K/9: 8.9 | WHIP: 0.994 | ERA+: 129 | 1.3 bWAR
The Astros are biased, of course, but they could make a reasonable case that Javier had the most value of any rookie this year. After losing a pair of aces in Gerrit Cole (free agency) and Justin Verlander (season-ending surgery after one start), Houston leaned on their rookie — and he delivered in a big way.
Javier had a 5-2 record and led Astros starters in win percentage (.714) and WHIP. He was also among the top-five qualified rookie starters in wins, innings, strikeouts (48), WHIP and opponent batting average (.188).
Despite their recent team successes, the Astros had to claw their way into the expanded playoffs in 2020. Javier did some of his best work in the closing stretch, going 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in five September outings to help Houston reach October.
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
Position: CF
2020 stats: GP: 56 | HR: 11 | AVG: .233 | OBP: .302 | SLG: .436 | OPS+: 101 | 1.6 bWAR
Robert’s OPS+ suggests he was merely an average player this season, so what’s he doing in the ROY race? Well, he tied with Lewis for the home run lead, led all rookies in RBIs (31) and generated a great deal of value in the field.
Robert accrued 1.0 defensive bWAR, which was tops among rookies, and was one of only two rookies to win a Gold Glove. Succeeding like that in centerfield, one of the most lauded positions on the diamond, will score you some points with voters.
But as great as Robert was on defence, he might’ve aided opposing defences just as much by striking out 73 times (second most among rookies).
Oh yes, he did! Luis Robert is golden. pic.twitter.com/J1Jx3PxBBx
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) November 4, 2020
But wait … where’s Randy?
Perhaps you watched the MLB playoffs last month, and perhaps you recall that a rookie named Randy Arozarena set those playoffs on fire with a record 10 post-season home runs.
As special as that was, playoff accomplishments bear no weight in ROY consideration. And although Arozarena was also spectacular during the season (179 OPS+, an MVP-level mark), he only played in 23 games.
Fear not, Arozarena fans: despite debuting in 2019, Arozarena has still not played enough games to exceed rookie status. He’s definitely a ROY frontrunner for 2021.
