The Toronto Blue Jays had a rare day off on Thursday -- brief relief following a busy 13-day stretch that saw the club emerge with nine wins in 14 games to jump up three spots in the American League standings.
Now, the Blue Jays open a three-day weekend series against the New York Mets starting Friday evening before steeling themselves for what will be another string of 14 games in 13 days that will ultimately determine their playoff fate.
When we checked in one week ago, the Blue Jays were holding onto the AL's final wild-card spot, putting them in the eighth seed. Now second in the division and sitting in the fifth seed after leapfrogging the Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros and New York Yankees, here’s a closer look at where Toronto stands in the MLB playoff picture.
If the playoffs began today
The top two teams in each division make the playoffs along with the top remaining two teams from each league for a total of 16 playoff teams. Those 16 teams will then face off in eight best-of-three series that precede the League Division Series.
If the post-season began today, these eight American League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Oakland Athletics vs. No. 8 New York Yankees
No. 2 Tampa Bay Rays vs. No. 7 Cleveland Indians
No. 3 Chicago White Sox vs. No. 6 Houston Astros
No. 4 Minnesota Twins vs. No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays
And these eight National League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 8 San Francisco Giants
No. 2 Atlanta Braves vs. No. 7 Miami Marlins
No. 3 Chicago Cubs vs. No. 6 St. Louis Cardinals
No. 4 San Diego Padres vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Phillies
How seeding works in 2020: According to MLB, the top three seeds in each league go to the three division winners in order of record. The next three seeds go to the three teams that finish second in their division, in order of record. The final two seeds will go to the two teams with the next best records, regardless of division.
The stretch run is here and the #BlueJays are a bona fide contender with some decisions approaching New At the Letters up @Sportsnet with @ArdenZwelling
https://t.co/WlWoGDvXoN
https://t.co/H4qVKWqQzs— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) September 11, 2020
In striking distance
In the American League, we're seeing the same eight teams in contention as we have since the final stretch began, with the clubs all jockeying for position within that playoff picture. The same goes for those currently outside of the playoffs -- the Baltimore Orioles are now the closest to the final seed with a record of 20-22 (.476 win percentage) while the Detroit Tigers, who had the edge over the Orioles a week ago, are now just barely behind Baltimore. The Tigers' 20-23 record (.465) gives Baltimore no room for error, as both clubs knocking on the door are just two wins behind the eighth-seed Yankees heading into the weekend.
Meanwhile, in the National League, there's a bit more breathing room between contenders and those trying to catch them. The Colorado Rockies fell out of the playoff picture and are now three wins off pace (20-23, .465 win percentage) of the eight-seed Giants, who jumped into contention this past week. Next in line are the Milwaukee Brewers (19-22, .463 win percentage).
Playoff odds report
Objectively speaking, here's where the Blue Jays stand in relation to their closest adversaries, according to FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight:
Blue Jays' FanGraphs odds: 91.2% | Blue Jays' FiveThirtyEight odds: 91%
Orioles' FanGraphs odds: 8.9% | Orioles' FiveThirtyEight odds: 8%
Tigers' FanGraphs odds: 6.4% | Tigers' FiveThirtyEight odds: 7%
Next up
The Blue Jays will send Chase Anderson to the mound Friday evening while the Mets will counter with back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. Meanwhile, the Orioles will have a crucial double-header against the Yankees on Friday afternoon and evening, and the Tigers take on the surging White Sox.