Coming off a series loss to the Kansas City Royals that was punctuated by a 13-2 defeat, things seemed to be heading in the wrong direction for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yes, the Royals have been surprisingly hot in August, but following Thursday's loss, the Blue Jays' FanGraphs playoff odds sat at 9.7 per cent, and they fell 3.5 games back of the final wild-card spot in the American League.
So, how did they respond? By bouncing back, of course, to sweep the Seattle Mariners, taking advantage of the out-of-town scoreboard to climb right back into the post-season picture.
Toronto will look to carry that momentum into a pivotal series this week against the Cleveland Guardians — who occupy the third wild-card spot — with a chance to gain further ground in the chase for the post-season as the calendar turns to September.
The Blue Jays won their previous three-game set against the Guardians this year, winning two of three at Rogers Centre from April 24-26. Naturally, both teams' rosters look quite different from that early-season matchup, but the Blue Jays will be hoping for a repeat as they open a nine-game road trip.
As Toronto and Cleveland duke it out, it's worth keeping an eye on the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers — both of whom are within two games of the Guardians — as they open new series against the Colorado Rockies and Athletics, respectively.
With all that said, here's a look at how the AL playoff race is shaping up as the final month of the regular season arrives:
If the post-season started today
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (82-54): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (72-64): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (69-68) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (69-68)
No. 4 New York Yankees (78-59) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (74-63)
Within striking distance
It was a good weekend for the Blue Jays and Orioles, with both AL East clubs completing sweeps to gain ground on the Guardians, who dropped two of three to the Royals.
But beyond Toronto and Baltimore, no other team in the chase managed to capitalize on Cleveland's step back. Each of the Rangers, Mariners, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers dropped their respective series and saw their playoff odds drop.
We've seen over the past month just how much a hot week can shake up the standings. So, while the Twins, Mariners and Tigers may have seemed to slightly fade from the pack, there are sure to be some twists and turns in the coming month before the third wild-card victor definitively emerges.
One thing to watch in three AL series with wild-card implications
Blue Jays at Guardians: Can Toronto’s bats keep their power surge going? It's been a lean year for the Blue Jays offence, but in their sweep of the Mariners, they outscored Seattle 19-4 and smoked five home runs over the three games. With Toronto adjusting its rotation to ensure that both Dylan Cease and José Soriano start in Cleveland, it might not need the seven- or eight-run outbursts to win, but a continued slugging presence would be more than welcome in the pivotal matchup. All eyes will continue to be on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and whether he can find a groove through the final month of the season, but Alejandro Kirk (.946 OPS) and George Springer (.858 OPS) were the Blue Jays' hottest hitters in August and will surely continue to be relied upon heavily in a tough showdown against the Guardians' pitching staff.
Orioles at Rockies: How does the top of Baltimore’s rotation bounce back? The Orioles took care of business over the weekend in Sacramento, sweeping an A's team that is now 12-29 since the all-star break. Fortunately for Baltimore, its schedule will stay soft for a visit to Coors Field before becoming increasingly difficult throughout the rest of September. The Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Bradish and Tyler Rogers in the first two games of their meeting against the Rockies, hoping Colorado’s struggling offence gives their top arms a chance to build some momentum heading into the final month after shaky outings last week. Bradish and Rogers combined to allow 13 runs over 9.1 innings on back-to-back days against the St. Louis Cardinals, adding to what has been an uneven season for the duo. Baltimore will need both Bradish and Rogers in top form atop its rotation if it is to make a real run at the post-season, making their starts against one of the worst offences in baseball feel like a golden opportunity to get back on track.
Tigers at Twins: Could this be Detroit's last stand? After their weekend set against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Tigers have now lost five consecutive series and seen their playoff odds drop to a season-low 1.4 per cent. It's already "in need of a miracle" territory, but Detroit has climbed out of the basement over the final month in recent history. In 2024, the Tigers' odds sat at 2.5 per cent after a loss on Aug. 29 before a 17-8 September earned them a spot in October. That's not to say that the "Gritty Tigs" are likely to return this year, especially after trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. It does, however, show that this week's intra-division matchup with the Twins — who desperately need some wins of their own — could be the Tigers' last shot at going on a run. Detroit's next 10 games come against AL Central opponents, including four against the Guardians, setting up a week that could decide whether it stays in these wild-card conversations or completely falls to the wayside.
Playoff odds report
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among American League teams battling for post-season spots.
Tampa Bay's FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay's Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Chicago's FanGraphs odds: 85.6% | Chicago's Baseball Reference odds: 96.4%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 67.4% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 72.9%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 97.5% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.2%
Cleveland's FanGraphs odds: 51.7% | Cleveland's Baseball Reference odds: 44.7%
Baltimore's FanGraphs odds: 20.6% | Baltimore's Baseball Reference odds: 23.0%
Toronto's FanGraphs odds: 25.2% | Toronto's Baseball Reference odds: 27.0%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 25.3% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 22.6%
Minnesota's FanGraphs odds: 5.5% | Minnesota's Baseball Reference odds: 2.9%
Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 19.5% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 9.2%
Detroit's FanGraphs odds: 1.4% | Detroit's Baseball Reference odds: 2.0%
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