Coming into their four-game series with the Texas Rangers, not only were the Toronto Blue Jays in a playoff spot, but they had the chance to control their own fate over the final three weeks of the regular season.
But after dropping all four games to the Rangers, the Blue Jays are now on the outside looking in and will need some help from the out-of-town scoreboard the rest of the way.
While Texas has seven games remaining against the Seattle Mariners, guaranteeing at least four losses to one of those two teams, Toronto will need to finish a game better than either club since the tiebreaker favours both AL West squads.
As they try to put the sweep behind them, the Blue Jays will turn their attention to their final 15 games, with series against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.
Up first is the Red Sox, who Toronto swept in a series just over a month ago, sparked by Davis Schneider’s incredible debut. Boston comes to the Rogers Centre after dropping three of four to the Yankees, essentially putting them out of wild-card contention.
With a packed slate of games this weekend, there’s a lot at stake for each of the AL playoff contenders as we move ever closer to October baseball.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
Now, two-and-a-half games back of the Rangers and one-and-a-half back of the Mariners, the Blue Jays will need to do something they haven’t been able to consistently do all season — rack up wins over AL East opponents.
While the Red Sox and Yankees both have a sub-one per cent chance of making the post-season, they will still offer a challenge when matched up with Toronto. Neither club has been mathematically eliminated, and both have the talent to play at a level higher than their record would suggest. Looking ahead to the Blue Jays’ series with New York, Gerrit Cole is scheduled to start Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, which lines him up to start against Toronto in both three-game sets.
As for Toronto’s remaining games against the Rays, Tampa Bay could be competing for the division title in those contests. Entering Friday just a game back of the Orioles, the Rays will likely be firing on all cylinders right to the end of the season as they compete for a first-round bye.
WHAT TO WATCH IN EACH AL WILD-CARD CONTENDER’S SERIES THIS WEEKEND
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Who wins the starting pitching matchup? After claiming a tight 4-3 win in Thursday’s series opener, the Rays tied the Orioles with 91 wins on the season. While Baltimore does have two games in hand, Tampa Bay has three more games to try and take back the AL East lead this weekend. On paper, the Rays will have the pitching advantage, sending Zach Eflin (3.53 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (3.15) and Zack Littell (4.25) to the mound to face off against Jack Flaherty (4.98), Grayson Rodriguez (4.88) and Dean Kremer (4.25). However, if we’ve learned one thing from watching the Orioles this season, it’s that their starters give the team a chance to win. Baltimore’s starters have the ninth most quality starts in MLB this season, and have been effective against Tampa Bay, owning a 3.26 ERA over 49.2 innings against the Rays.
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: Can the Astros run away with the division? The Astros have the easiest path to a division title of any AL West team. However, after dropping its series earlier this week to the Oakland Athletics, Houston is now 6-6 in September. While nothing is guaranteed, the Astros play the first of two three-game sets remaining on their schedule against the Kansas City Royals this weekend. With only three in-division games remaining for Houston, they will have to take care of business in order to hold off the Rangers and Mariners in the search for a bye to the ALDS.
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: Can the Rangers continue to build momentum? After going 4-16 over a 20-game stretch to end August and begin September, Texas all of a sudden owns the longest win streak in baseball, thanks to their sweep in Toronto. While dismantling the Blue Jays, the Rangers looked a lot more like the team that stormed out to an AL West lead than the one that coughed that lead up. So now, as they head to Cleveland to match up with the Guardians, the question is: has Texas turned it around? While they still have injury problems, the Rangers are going to need to prove that their offence and starting pitching are back to early-season levels over their next two series before playing the Mariners in seven of their last 10 games.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Is Seattle now the team to watch for the Blue Jays? The Mariners opened their week with a series win over the Los Angeles Angels, but now turn to one of the toughest remaining schedules in baseball. That starts Friday as the Los Angeles Dodgers come to town. While the Dodgers have struggled in September, they represent a test for a Seattle team that will need to secure ground over its next two series, with the Athletics next up for the Mariners. Their last 10 games of the season come against the Rangers and Astros, where their season may be decided. For the Blue Jays, Seattle’s difficult stretch may be their best chance to climb back into a wild-card spot.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: How resilient are the Blue Jays? There may be no better example of what Toronto needs to do after being outscored by 26 runs on their home field than the turnaround the Rangers have undergone over the past week. Texas was swept at home by the Astros and outscored by 29 runs over three games and responded to win six of its next seven. It’s that type of resiliency that will be needed out of the Toronto clubhouse as the Red Sox come to the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have a chance to bury a team that hasn’t won a series against a playoff contender since July 25 and is just 3-7 over its last 10. Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Hyun-Jin Ryu are set to take the ball in the series as Toronto looks to flip the script over its final 15 games.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 97.0% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 94.1%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 88.0% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 89.3%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 80.4% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 75.0%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 34.2% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 41.4%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 0.2% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: <0.1%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 0.2% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.2%
