After Thursday night’s 10th-inning win over the Red Sox on the bat of Teoscar Hernandez, the Toronto Blue Jays are now staring down a double-header against Boston on Friday with a chance to turn back-to-back victories into four straight wins and tighten their grip on the second wild-card spot.
Here’s a closer look at where they stand in the MLB playoff picture:
If the playoffs began today…
The top two teams in each division make the playoffs along with the top two remaining clubs from each league for a total of 16 playoff-bound squads. Those 16 teams will then face off in eight best-of-three series that precede the League Division Series.
If the post-season began today, these eight American League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays vs. No. 8 Toronto Blue Jays
No. 2 Oakland Athletics vs. No. 7 Minnesota Twins
No. 3 Cleveland Indians vs. No. 6 New York Yankees
No. 4 Chicago White Sox vs. No. 5 Houston Astros
And these eight National League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 8 Colorado Rockies
No. 2 Atlanta Braves vs. No. 7 Miami Marlins
No. 3 Chicago Cubs vs. No. 6 St. Louis Cardinals
No. 4 San Diego Padres vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Phillies
How seeding works in 2020: According to MLB, the top three seeds in each league go to the three division winners in order of record. The next three seeds go to the three teams that finish second in their division, in order of record. The final two seeds will go to the two teams with the next best records, regardless of division.
In striking distance
In the American League, the Detroit Tigers are closest to the final seed with an even record of 17-17. Behind them are the 16-20 Baltimore Orioles, who were exceeding expectations earlier in the season but have struggled more as the summer has progressed.
Meanwhile, in the National League, the San Francisco Giants (18-20) are knocking on the door, with the Milwaukee Brewers nipping at their heels at 17-19.
Playoff odds report
Objectively speaking, here’s where the Blue Jays stand in relation to their closest adversaries, according to FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight:
Blue Jays’ FanGraphs odds: 84.7% | Blue Jays’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 82%
Tigers’ FanGraphs odds: 17.3% | Tigers’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 17%
Orioles’ FanGraphs odds: 2.5% | Orioles’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 2%
Next up
The Blue Jays will start Friday’s double-header by sending RHP Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.33 ERA) to the mound in the afternoon before fellow RHP Ross Stripling (3-1, 5.61 ERA in NL) makes his Blue Jays debut in the second game against the Red Sox in the evening. Boston will counter with RHP Zack Godley (0-3, 7.71 ERA) and RHP Chris Mazza (0-1, 7.88 ERA) will get the second start of the night. Meanwhile, Detroit (vs. Minnesota) and Baltimore (vs. Yankees) each face an uphill battle with double-headers of their own against playoff-calibre clubs.
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