As the 2024 MLB campaign rounds the corner into the final week of the regular season, there are still multiple playoff spots up for grabs.
The surging New York Mets and Detroit Tigers have taken hold of wild-card spots in their respective leagues, pushing two 2023 division winners, in the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins, out of the post-season picture.
The Mets were able to maintain their two-game lead over the Braves with an impressive series win against the Philadelphia Phillies, taking three of four from the NL East leaders at home.
Now, New York heads to Atlanta on Tuesday for perhaps the most important head-to-head matchup remaining on the MLB calendar. The Braves are expected to send Spencer Schwellenbach, Cy Young favourite Chris Sale and Charlie Morton to the mound over the three-game set, in which they will try to save their season against the Mets.
Long considered a post-season lock, Atlanta has suffered from the injury bug and underperforming offence, keeping them from reaching the regular-season heights that saw them advancing into October in each of the past six years.
The Braves aren't the only team that will be attempting to claw back into the post-season after holding down one of the six spots for the majority of 2024, as Minnesota officially lost its grasp on a wild-card spot with Sunday's two losses.
While the wild-card races will deservedly steal the headlines over the final seven days of the season, a trio of division leaders will get the opportunity to go up against the second-place squads to open the week.
In the AL East, the New York Yankees square off with the Baltimore Orioles, the Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners in an AL West clash and the Los Angeles Dodgers will try to fend off the red-hot San Diego Padres with a three-game lead in the NL West.
They say the MLB season is a marathon and not a sprint, but teams still in the hunt are in full stride as they race to the finish line. So, let's take a look at all of the stories to watch over the final week.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading New York Yankees (92-64): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (90-67): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (85-71) vs. No. 6 Detroit Tigers (82-74)
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (86-70) vs. No. 5 Kansas City Royals (82-74)
*Royals hold tiebreaker over Tigers
National League
No. 1 and NL East-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (93-63): Bye
No. 2 and NL West-leading Philadelphia Phillies (92-64): Bye
No. 3 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (89-67) vs. No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks (87-69)
No. 4 San Diego Padres (90-66) vs. No. 5 New York Mets (87-69)
*Mets hold tiebreaker over Diamondbacks
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
The Braves took care of business over the weekend, picking up a series win over the Marlins, but it wasn't enough to gain any ground on the Mets or Diamondbacks. Michael Harris II and Matt Olson have both begun to heat up over the past week, and as Atlanta sends three of its most reliable arms to the mound this week against the Mets, the two left-handed hitters will need to keep producing if the Braves are to close that two-game gap.
On the AL side, it's the Twins and Mariners who are on the outside looking in.
Neither club has instilled a tonne of confidence in their ability to close out the season strong, as Minnesota just lost its third straight series. The Twins do hold the tiebreaker over both the Royals and Tigers, but their offence hasn't been able to consistently push runs across the plate over the past month.
Meanwhile, Seattle is coming off a series win over the Texas Rangers, but blew a 5-0 lead on Sunday and enters the week two games back of a wild-card spot and an Astros collapse back of the NL West title.
WILD-CARD BATTLES IN THE LAST WEEK
Kansas City Royals: @Washington Nationals, @Atlanta Braves.
Losers of seven straight, the Royals are suddenly at risk of missing the post-season altogether. Kansas City will have to complete its 2024 turnaround on the road, as all six of its remaining games come in NL East ballparks. Keep an eye on that last series in Atlanta, as both teams could have a lot to play for.
Detroit Tigers: vs. Tampa Bay Rays, vs. Chicago White Sox.
With one of the easiest schedules remaining in baseball, the Tigers have every opportunity to cap their epic second-half run with a trip to October. Not only are they paying to crack the six-team field, but they have a chance to pass Kansas City for the fifth seed after sweeping the Royals last week.
Minnesota Twins: vs. Miami Marlins, vs. Baltimore Orioles.
The Twins will need to return to their winning ways against Miami if they hope to return to the post-season. Minnesota is expected to give the ball to Bailer Ober, and inconsistent rookies Simeon-Woods Richardson and David Festa in the series, so the offence will likely need to refind its early-season form this week.
Seattle Mariners: @Houston Astros, vs. Oakland Athletics.
The Mariners' pitching staff has carried them all season long, but their offence has picked up in September. Seattle has scored the fourth-most runs in baseball this month and posted the second-best wRC+. It'll likely need to win one or two in Houston, but finishing the year against the Athletics could have the Mariners pushing the group of AL Central clubs for a wild-card spot.
New York Mets: @Atlanta Braves, @Milwaukee Brewers
It's still unclear if or when the Mets will get MVP candidate Francisco Lindor back from a back injury that has kept him out for a week, and that could loom large in their final charge. But a series win in Atlanta would all but secure a playoff spot for New York, as a three-game deficit with three to play would be pretty difficult for the Braves to overcome.
Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. San Francisco Giants, vs. San Diego Padres
The Diamondbacks have quietly cooled off in September and blew an 8-0 lead on Sunday against the Brewers as they try to separate themselves from the Mets-Braves showdown. The good news for Arizona to open the week is that they can gain ground on whoever loses between the two NL East clubs.
Atlanta Braves: vs. New York Mets, vs. Kansas City Royals
All things hinge on the series against the Mets. Drop two of three, and Atlanta needs to sweep the Royals. Win the series, and it will still likely need to claim two of its final three. The Braves will need some help along the way, but they could flip the script with a strong performance against their division rival.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
New York's FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 99.8% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.6%
Kansas City’s FanGraphs odds: 69.1% | Kansas City’s Baseball Reference odds: 68.4%
Detroit's FanGraphs odds: 69.3% | Detroit's Baseball Reference odds: 78.6%
Minnesota's FanGraphs odds: 54.7% | Minnesota's Baseball Reference odds: 41.9%
Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 6.4% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 10.4%
National League
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Philadelphia's FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%
New York's FanGraphs odds: 76.8% | New York's Baseball Reference odds: 82.8%
Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 83.1% | Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 84.0%
Atlanta's FanGraphs odds: 40.2% | Atlanta's Baseball Reference odds: 33.7%
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