TORONTO – To understand why the MLBPA will likely reject the league’s proposal for a modified 2021 season, some context is necessary.
First, we need to acknowledge the default plan – because there is one. And second, we must step back and view this offer within the context of the ongoing bargaining efforts between MLB and its players. Without that context, it’s perhaps puzzling that players would reject a seemingly reasonable deal. With it, everything starts to make sense.
So to begin, the baseline. At this point, an agreement exists for the 2021 season. There will be 162 regular-season games per team, full pay for players, five playoff teams per league and no designated hitter in the National League. Clearly, both sides are open to the possibility of modifying that structure and the league seems particularly motivated to make adjustments, but an agreement already exists.
Any new changes must be approved by both sides, which brings us to the second bit of necessary context. Remember last summer, when talks with the MLBPA stalled and commissioner Rob Manfred suggested there might not even be a 2020 season? How the union responded with a statement that began ‘Players are disgusted…”? Or how Trevor Bauer suggested the owners were killing time by tweeting “No one believes your bluff, bud” at Manfred?
Those involved in the current talks certainly do. Last summer was ugly, and everyone involved knows an even bigger negotiation awaits after the 2021 season when the current collective bargaining agreement expires. The point being, there’s a notable lack of trust between these sides right now.
As one person familiar with the MLB proposal pointed out, players fear that Manfred will take whatever power he can get and use it against the players. Another wondered if MLB was making an offer they knew the players would reject to put pressure on the MLBPA in the court of public opinion. That environment doesn’t make for smooth or quick negotiations.
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So back to the proposal. Over the weekend, players considered a plan that would push the season back by a month, compress the schedule to 154 games and include a universal DH. And, perhaps most importantly, it also included expanded playoffs, creating a potentially significant new revenue stream for MLB.
At first glance, it certainly seems reasonable. From a health and safety standpoint, it’s likely easier to ensure player and fan safety with the benefit of more time to vaccinate people against COVID-19. But, as always, the devil is in the details.
“It’s not a good deal,” one player said. “We already have a deal and season in place with the current CBA. No need to adjust it.”
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Players are open to structuring the 2021 season differently, but are mindful of the physical toll modified schedules would create. For instance, sources said the proposed schedule called for 12 double-headers per team as part of MLB’s proposal to compress 154 games into five-plus months. Playing so many games in such a short period could increase the injury risk for players, a factor the MLBPA must weigh.
And while health and safety protocols are undoubtedly an important driver here, the economics tell a story of their own. The New York Post reported last month that MLB and ESPN were close to a deal that would give the broadcaster rights to the first round of the playoffs – a round that does not yet exist. As such, there are clear financial incentives for MLB to expand the playoffs.
To get them, MLB will need the approval of the players, and that dynamic provides the MLBPA with leverage. Players are certainly open to the idea of expanded playoffs, but they aren’t motivated to make that change in the same way the league is.
In the weeks ahead, there’s no real limit to the number of proposals MLB can make, nor is there much downside to making proposals that the MLBPA rejects. From the league’s standpoint, there’s nothing wrong with trying different ideas.
But since players already have an agreement that works for them, they’re in a position to ask for something significant if they grant MLB its wish and expand the playoffs for 2021.
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