MLB Wagers of the Week: Can bettors cash in on red-hot Guerrero Jr.?

Sportsnet's Blue Jays Central panel talks why Vladimir Guerrero Jr's electric form could lead him to beat Jose Bautista's franchise home run record set in 2010.

If you plan on placing an MLB wager during your work week, see below for some games and matchups to keep your eye on, as well as some trends that have been lucrative so far this season.

All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as time of publication.

Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros

Wager to watch: Taking the over

This three-game series begins Monday in Houston, and it is a mouth-watering matchup if you’re an over bettor. The Astros are 53-39-2 (57.6%) while the Indians are 50-37-3 (57.5%) to the over, which ranks third and fourth overall respectively in Major League Baseball.

Tonight’s pitching matchup is J.C. Mejia (1-4, 7.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) for Cleveland while Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) gets the ball for Houston. In games when Mejia starts, the over is 4-3 (57.1%) and the Indians are scoring 3.43 runs of support per start. When Greinke toes the rubber, the over is a spectacular 13-6 (68.4%), and the Astros are scoring 5.63 runs for every start the veteran righty makes.

Tonight’s total is 9.0 and I like taking the over at -103.

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

Wager to watch: Taking the under

We go from a series in which you’ll be cheering for runs — always a fun time — to a series where you’ll be sweating it out and taking under the total. The Nationals are 55-34-3 (61.8%) this season to the under, which is the best mark in MLB. It gets better, too, as the under is 32-13 (71.1%) in Washington’s last 45 home games and 22-8-1 (73.3%) in their last 31 against the National League East.

The Marlins are 47-40-6 (54.0%) when taking the under (fifth best in baseball), and the under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven road games against teams with a losing record.

Tonight’s pitching matchup hasn’t been determined quite yet so the total hasn’t been posted yet. But whatever the number is these trends are too juicy not to grab the under.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Wager to watch: Rays on the run line

The Orioles visit The Trop tonight to begin a three-game set against the Rays in what is a complete mismatch when talking about the run line. Baltimore is 40-52-0 (43.5%) against the spread this season, which ranks 27th in the MLB. The Rays, meanwhile, are 53-40-0 (57.0%) against the run line this season, which is second best in baseball.

Tampa has also feasted on the run line against the American League East. The Rays are 25-13-0 (65.8%) against the spread when facing division foes — best in the majors. The Orioles are just 14-21-0 (40.0%) versus the AL East — fourth worst league-wide.

With 24 wins in their last 29 games against Baltimore, the Rays are also 6-0 this season against the Orioles and have outscored them 48-21. Take Tampa tonight at -1.5 (-141).

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Wager to watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. overs on total bases

If you’re looking to put a little sprinkle on a player prop, look at the Red Sox and Blue Jays, who begin a three-games series tonight at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. I mean, how can you ignore the red-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. right now? Vladdy has slashed .292/.346/.667 over his last seven games with three home runs and seven RBI. What’s more, Guerrero has also slashed a majestic .372/.470/.833 at home this season with an eye-popping 20 homers.

Nick Pivetta (7-4, 4.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) gets the start for Boston tonight, which is more good news — albeit in a small sample — for Vladdy bettors. Toronto’s first baseman has slashed .600/.667/1.400 against Pivetta with one home run in five at-bats this season.

Feel free to take Vladdy Jr. to continue to rake at Sahlen Field and look for overs when it comes to total bases props.

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