If you’re in the mood to place an MLB wager during your work week, see below for some games and matchups to keep your eye on, as well as some trends that have been lucrative so far this season.
All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.
Wager to watch: Taking the under
The Blue Jays and Red Sox play the first of four games at Fenway Park tonight as Toronto tries to cut into Boston’s lead atop the AL East. The Blue Jays are 48-44-3 (52.2%) overall to the under this season and an eye-popping 30-20-1 (60.0%) as the away team. The Red Sox are 52-45-3 (53.6%) to the under and a reliable 26-23-2 (53.1%) as the home team. The under is also 5-0 in Boston’s last five home games and 4-0 in their last four overall.
Tonight’s total is 11.0 (over -106, under -113). And listen, I understand the old adage that no lead is ever safe at Fenway Park, but the Blue Jays are playing a ton of games that go under the total — especially on the road.
I lean the under 11.0 (-113) tonight. Look at taking the under for the remainder of this four-game set, as well.
Wager to watch: Taking the over
This three-game set begins tonight in Minnesota, and both of these mediocre clubs should be in full sell mode as the MLB trade deadline approaches. We’re not here to talk about the standings, though — we’re here to talk about the total.
The Twins are the best team in all of baseball this season to the over by going a stellar 58-38-4 (60.4%) and a solid 28-22-1 (56.0%) as the home team. The Tigers, meanwhile, are a respectable 26-22-3 (54.2%) to the over this season as the road team.
Tonight’s pitching matchup is Matt Manning (2-3, 5.79 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) for Detroit while Michael Pineda (4-5, 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) goes for Minnesota. Detroit is scoring 4.67 runs of support for Manning, and the over is 3-3 in his starts. The Twins are generating 4.08 runs of support for Pineda, while the over is 6-6-1 when the right-hander starts.
Tonight’s total is listed at 10.0 (over -105, under -115). A couple of other final arguments: The over is 10-4 in Detroit’s last 14 road games with the total set at 9.0-to-10.5, and 31-15-6 in Minnesota’s last 52 against the American League Central.
Take over 10.0 (-105) tonight and lean that way for the rest of the series.
Wager to watch: Giants on the run line
This crucial series for the top spot of the National League West kicks off Tuesday in San Francisco. The Giants have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, and have also been a buzzsaw when it comes to the run line. San Fran is a sizzling 62-37-0 (62.6%) overall against the spread in 2021, which is tops in baseball, and they’ve been even better 27-14-0 (65.8%) against their own division (which also ranks first). San Francisco is 27-19-0 (58.7%) as the host on the run line and 39-19 straight up in their last 58 home games.
The defending World Series champion Dodgers are just 48-53-0 (47.5%) against the spread this season and 23-27-0 (46.0%) as the road team. Los Angeles is even worse when facing the NL West by going 20-26-0 (43.5%) versus the run line.
These trends are just too good to ignore. I would lean taking San Francisco on the run line especially as the underdog in any game of this three-game set.
Wager to watch: Pete Alonso overs on total bases
The Mets and Braves series will play a five-game set starting with a double-header tonight at Citi Field, and the player to watch from a betting-prop perspective is New York’s Pete Alonso. Alonso is slashing .375/.412/.844 over his past seven games with five homers and 10 RBI.
Left-hander Kyle Muller (1-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) gets the start for Atlanta in the first game of the double dip, and Alonso is slashing .273/.371/.659 with 11 homers against southpaws this season.
Feel free to take Alonso to continue to his hot hitting and look for overs when it comes to total-bases props.