As the first 40 home run and 70 stolen base player and the best player not named Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, Jr., hardly needs any introduction to a national audience or the national stage.
At 25, he already has 111 post-season plate appearances and an .863 OPS. But while he also has a World Series ring from 2021, he has no World Series at bats: he tore his right ACL on May 11 of that season. It’s no wonder, then, that when the Atlanta Braves clinched the National League East Division title on Sept. 13, Braves manager Brian Snitker sought out Acuna on the field and said: “This time, you’re going to play in the World Series.” Vegas seems to feel that way, too. He’s the favourite to win World Series MVP.
The road begins Saturday, when for the first time in three weeks the Braves play game with any substantial meaning by opening the best of five National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park. It was in the Phillies ballpark — Citizens Bank Park — that the Braves clinched their sixth consecutive NL East title. Against the team that eliminated the Braves in four games in last year’s NLDS meeting.
Acuna’s numbers are breathtaking, as indeed are the Braves' offensive numbers in general. They hit 58 more homers in the regular season than the runner-up Los Angeles Dodgers and slugged .501, a higher figure than any of the other signature offensive teams in baseball history. Glance through the statistics and you find the Braves in the top five in run value against all pitch categories. They struck out just 20.6 per cent of the time — fifth lowest — and Acuna was very much the leader in that approach. There’s some graft that went into his remarkable season — he cut his strikeout rate by more than half, the largest decrease by any player since Mark Belanger in 1968-69. Acuna didn’t have a month with an OPS under .900 and had three over 1.000. He was, essentially, slump-proof. Just like his team.
Despite eliminating the Braves last season, the Phillies still proudly carry a chip on the shoulder that comes from a 10-year post-season absence during which time the Braves rattled off their run of division titles. This has turned into one of the game's best rivalries, to the point where the 14-win gap between the two teams in 2023 likely doesn’t matter. The Braves had a 14-win gap last season, too. And Acuna… although not this Acuna.
The winner of the Braves-Phillies series will advance to face the winner of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers in the other NLDS. Acuna aside, these are Six To Watch.
Mookie Betts, OF-IF, Dodgers
I mean, let’s be clear. It could be Freddie Freeman just as much as Betts in this category (Trivia: Who led the Dodgers in stolen bases in 2022? Freeman, with 23… 10 more than his previous career high.) In fact, they’re so much like a comfortable pair of shoes at the top of the Dodgers order that I could have included them as a pair.
It’s remarkable, really, that one of the game's most storied franchises could put together a historically great offensive season despite seeing Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and Dustin Turner walk in free agency and have Gavin Lux tear up his knee. So much of that, obviously, starts with the duo of Freeman and Betts, who has played 62 games at second base this season as well as 12 at shortstop without missing a step offensively. He posted an OPS of .996 in games as an infield starter en route to a career-high 39 homers.
Yet here’s the thing. The Dodgers went 2-for-26 with runners in scoring position last October when they were ushered out of the post-season by the San Diego Padres. Betts is one of the game's transcendent stars, but the playoffs have been a mixed bag. He went 2-for-14 last year and has just four homers in 55 career post-season games, two of them in the 2020 World Series when he was named MVP.
The Dodgers bullpen is terrific but they might need to score runs to offset their thin starting pitching. Freeman’s probably a better pick to click here… which makes Betts even more significant.
Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies
Best to not overthink things sometimes. Momentum in baseball is only as good as your starting pitcher… mojo is a product of talking heads looking for an easy narrative but, man, it sure seems as if the Phillies have something out of the ordinary. Swagger. Aura. Whatever. All I know is guys like Bryson Stott seem to have caught the sense-of-the-moment thing and, for me, that comes from Harper. The dude played with one arm in the World Series last season and rushed back from Tommy John surgery in time this season to replace Rhys Hoskins after Hoskins was injured. Harper posted an OPS+ of 146 and was charged with one error in 279 chances despite having made just two previous career appearances at first.
Bobby Miller, SP, Dodgers
It’s going to be enough to make heads explode — analytics meeting necessity, with Dodgers manager Dave Roberts at the wheel! The Dodgers, whose rotation was so shredded that they were the only team in baseball without a pitcher to make 25 starts, will attempt to win 11 post-season games with what amounts to a two-man rotation — Clayton Kershaw, who hasn’t pitched into the sixth inning in eight starts since coming off the injured list and Miller, a 24-year-old rookie who didn’t pitch in the Majors until May because of his own shoulder issues.
Next up? Uh… Lance Lynn and those 44 homers allowed?
Miller went on to post the longest consecutive scoreless innings streak of any Dodgers pitcher and has elite stuff but he is, of course, completely untested in the post-season. He’s a four-seamer and sinker guy 47 per cent of the time but he also has a nice balance to his changeup, curve, and slider around 16 per cent of the time. It’s good for the Dodgers that their bullpen shaved more than two runs off its ERA after the All-Star Break, but history has shown it is tough for teams to win in the post-season without their starters logging at least 40 per cent of the innings.
Gabriel Moreno, C, Diamondbacks
No funky or fancy matchup stuff here. Just cheering for the storyline. Salt? Meet wound. Moreno, the highly ranked prospect traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Diamondbacks along with Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., for Daulton Varsho, left Game 2 of the Diamondbacks wild-card win over the Milwaukee Brewers after being hit on the top of his helmet by a backswing. One of seven players aged 23 or under to play regularly for the Diamondbacks, Moreno’s calling card has always been his defence and ability to make contact, generating an OPS of 104+. His .284 batting average was second among all catchers… ahead of Adley Rutschman, for example. Moreno announced his post-season arrival by homering in Game 1 against the Brewers.
Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
It hasn’t been a perfect world for the Braves this season in terms of pitching. Far from it. But thanks to off-days the likelihood exists that Snitker’s preferred options as front-line starters — Strider and Max Fried — could make two starts each, although Fried is battling a lingering blister issue that could alter plans and bring Bryce Elder into focus. Yikes.
But if the blister can be managed, the schedule will prove to be a blessing for a staff that lumbered into the post-season, with Charlie Morton (sprained right index finger) out until the NLCS and Kyle Wright limited to bullpen work. Strider’s 13.55 strikeouts per nine innings was the best in the Majors by almost two strikeouts and his 281 strikeouts established a modern-day franchise record. Some concerns? He will give up a big inning and had an ERA of just under 6.00 in his last six starts. The Braves might not want to get too cute. He has a 5.56 ERA in eight career starts on four days rest.
Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks
So I had a scout friend tell me to check out Walker’s numbers against Clayton Kershaw, which I did after asking who exactly was Christian Walker. Answer? A guy who has five home runs off Kershaw as part of 10 hits in 34 at-bats. (OK: 12 of those at-bats ended in strikeouts, but, whatever.) Dig deeper and you’ll find that his 8.0 fWAR is fifth among MLB first basemen since last season, just behind Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson and Yandy Diaz. He’s a right-handed hitter with fairly equal platoon numbers and hits cleanup in a lineup that was third in the NL in total bases during the regular season. UZR and defensive runs saved love him. Yes, the Diamondbacks will need to leverage their edge in starting pitching, but I think there’s more to this team offensively than we imagine.
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