Although it doesn’t feel like it after a massive Game 3 win, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ high hopes are once again teetering on the brink.
This club needs to take three of four from a formidable Atlanta Braves team to stay alive, and on Thursday they’re counting on Clayton Kershaw — a guy who wasn’t able to pitch Tuesday due to back spasms. This is a tough spot, and for all their talent FanGraphs gives them only a 40.5 per cent chance of winning the series.
Writing off the Dodgers would be ludicrous, but it’s worth considering the implications of another playoff heartbreak. Thanks to the team’s decision to extend Mookie Betts there’s an argument to be made that 2020 doesn’t carry outsized importance for this group, but coming back to win the NLCS feels particularly crucial for one of the stalwarts of this team. Specifically, Justin Turner.
When we talk about the Dodgers getting over the hump, that conversation centres around Kershaw and his inconsistent October performances. This time it’s different. Not only has Kershaw been outstanding in these playoffs (14 innings of 1.93 ERA ball with a 2-0 record), even if he lays an egg on Thursday he has a baked-in injury excuse. He’s also under contract for next year, and after he rejuvenated his stuff in 2020 it’s easier to have confidence he’ll have more cracks at this — probably with the Dodgers.
Turner is a bit of a different case. He’s not an inner-circle Hall of Famer like Kershaw, but he’s a star in his own right. Since he came to the Dodgers in 2014 his WAR of 26.6 ranks 19th among all position players, sandwiched between George Springer and Xander Bogaerts. His wRC+ of 141 ranks 14th, right behind Bryce Harper. Although he’s often been overshadowed by superstar teammates, he’s been a through line of the Dodgers’ success in the Andrew Friedman era. Unlike many of those more famous running mates, he’s also tended to come through in the playoffs, hitting .281/.373/.474 against a virtually-identical regular-season line of .292/.369/.469.
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If Turner’s legacy as a Dodger, and playoff performer, are secure, how this team performs in 2020 wouldn’t seem to weigh on him too heavily. However, the stakes are extremely high for the third baseman for two reasons.
The first is that this is probably his last run with the Dodgers. Turner turns 36 at the end of this year and hits free agency following the season. The Dodgers have a number of alternatives at third base including Max Muncy, promising up-and-comer Edwin Ríos — who’s slugged .634 in his first 139 MLB plate appearances — and blue-chip prospect Kody Hoese, who could be a starter as soon as 2022. There are also scenarios where Gavin Lux or Corey Seager slide over. Despite their financial resources, Los Angeles likes to stay flexible both financially and positionally. Retaining Turner — for all of his positive qualities — would hamper them on both fronts.
Wherever Turner might go next year he will have a worse chance of winning the World Series than he would with the Dodgers. Even if he signed with another team, and found his way to the mountaintop, it might not be quite the same as doing it where he spent his prime. Whether you want to be 100 per cent practical or 100 per cent sentimental, there’s something to be said for Turner winning with the Dodgers, and there’s a good chance this is the last opportunity for that to happen.
The second reason that Turner needs this to keep going is to bolster his free agent case, which is already a murky one. On one hand, the veteran is coming off a season where he posted a 140 wRC+, marking the seventh consecutive season he’s been a significantly above-average offensive contributor. He also had a 14.9 per cent strikeout rate, which is appealing to teams in this high-whiff era — and helps indicate his bat speed isn’t gone.
On the flip side, Turner hit only four home runs this year, missed time due to a soft-tissue injury, and saw his Isolated Slugging take a massive dive.
It’s also unclear what you’re getting from Turner with the glove at this point considering his age and the scattershot nature of his defensive metrics in recent years.
Then there’s the matter of his post-season performance in 2020, which has been brutal thus far. Turner is hitting just .167/.278/.167 during this playoff run. When you put it all together, you can paint two very different free agency narratives for Turner: one if the Dodgers come back and win it all, another if they fall short again. Here’s how that looks:
If the Dodgers come back and win it all: Turner gets more games to salvage his post-season and is lauded as the guy, along with Kershaw, who got through all the Dodgers’ struggles and finally broke through. If he gets a crucial hit or two in the World Series, he can easily slide from “longtime star” to “franchise icon”. Should Los Angeles get into the sentimental re-signing of World Series winners, he even has a chance of returning.
If he goes elsewhere, his “veteran presence” credibility is increased significantly by his ring — which might add a little premium to his next contact. Even if he doesn’t perform in the playoffs, he’ll be remembered as a strong October performer thanks to his overall numbers, and the fact he’s a World Series champ. Turner will be seen as a player who can help put another team over the top, perhaps one with a younger core that hasn’t been there yet.
If the Dodgers fall to the Braves: Turner’s post-season goes down as a failure, and one that reinforced his biggest worry during the season (his inability to hit for extra-base power). Anxieties about his potential decline as a hitter — valid or not — increase because of recency bias. His chances of returning to the Dodgers likely decrease, and his legacy with that franchise is as a core member of the teams that simply couldn’t win it all. His credibility as a veteran is beyond repute, but his agent doesn’t get to sell prospective suitors on a champion.
There’s a pretty significant difference there in terms of both status — particularly in the context of the Dodgers franchise — and free agent dollars. Kershaw may be the face of this team’s quest to end a 32-year title drought, but nobody needs it more than Turner.
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