TORONTO – In an especially slow-paced off-season, deadlines of any kind offer a little nudge for teams otherwise content to bide their time. And with the next of those deadlines approaching Thursday, the starting pitching market might start moving again. If nothing else, the decision Tomoyuki Sugano makes will provide teams in that market with some clarity.
Sugano, a 31-year-old starter, has until Thursday at 5 p.m. ET to decide whether to sign with an MLB team, or return to Japan, where he has twice won the Sawamura Award – NPB’s top honour for starting pitchers. He has interest from MLB clubs and the Blue Jays appear to be at the forefront of those talks, but his longtime team, the Yomiuri Giants, would also like to retain him after an excellent 2020 season in which he posted a 1.97 ERA with characteristically low walk rates and nearly one strikeout per inning.
All of that creates a potentially tough decision for Sugano. Presumably he wouldn’t have flown to California unless he was thinking seriously about making the leap to MLB. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday that Sugano isn’t getting his desired number, setting up the possibility of a return to Japan. Rosenthal reported that Yomiuri’s four-year offer includes three opt-out clauses, which would give Sugano maximum flexibility in future seasons.
Of course, some within the game view that information as posturing designed to raise teams’ final offers. As for the Blue Jays, they’ve done lots of background work on Sugano, who certainly has the skills to help their starting rotation. According to Rosenthal, that interest even led to a ‘strong bid.’ Until the deadline arrives other clubs could always jump in late, but some observers suspect the Blue Jays may now be frontrunners among MLB teams.
It was just last year that the Blue Jays signed one of Sugano's former teammates to a contract that helped assert their increasing presence in the Pacific Rim. One year in, the two-year, $6.35-million deal Shun Yamaguchi signed hasn't worked out, as the right-hander posted an 8.06 ERA with 17 walks in 25.2 innings, most of which were low-leverage.
But Yamaguchi’s struggles aside, many more Japanese pitchers have transitioned successfully to MLB, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Kenta Maeda among them. The Blue Jays wouldn’t let the struggles of Yamaguchi prevent them from pursuing a pitcher they truly wanted and there’s a lot to like about Sugano even if he doesn’t light up the radar gun. Thanks in part to exceptional control (career walk rate of 1.8 walks per nine) he has a lifetime ERA of 2.34 and a fastball that reportedly sits in the 90-92 m.p.h. range.
With that in mind, his price will obviously be higher than that of Yamaguchi or Kohei Arihara, who signed a similar two-year, $6.2-million deal with Texas earlier this winter. How much more is the question interested teams must answer with their final bids.
Yusei Kikuchi, another pitcher the Blue Jays liked, obtained a $56-million guarantee from the Mariners two winters ago, and that’s a useful reference point, though it should be noted that Kikuchi was 27 compared to Sugano’s 31.
Beyond the Blue Jays, it’s unclear who’s a leading contender to sign Sugano. In the estimation of one person involved in the pitching market, the Mets, Red Sox and Giants don’t appear to be strong suitors for him. On paper, the Padres, Twins or Yankees could be fits, but if they’re involved they’ve kept their interest quiet.
One way or another, there will be real fallout from Sugano’s decision, though. If he returns to Japan, more dollars will be available for the tier of starting pitchers beyond Trevor Bauer – namely Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Jose Quintana and Tanaka. Similarly, the trade market for the likes of Carlos Carrasco, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray might be a bit more active. Yet if Sugano signs with a big-league club, that team’s need for further rotation help would diminish.
Within 24 hours, Sugano will have to make his final decision. Once he does, this slow-moving off-season will progress by at least a little bit.
