Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Latest odds and picks

Toronto Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. congratulates Marcus Semien on his first-inning home run versus the Philadelphia Phillies on May 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

It’s a battle of two struggling teams as the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles in the opener of a three-game series tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Toronto has dropped four in a row while Baltimore has lost eight straight.

Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.

(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.)

Toronto Blue Jays (33-34) at Baltimore Orioles (22-46) at 7:05 p.m. EDT

RUNLINE -1.5: -113

RUNLINE +1.5: -107

OVER 10: -108
UNDER 10: -112

Tonight’s pitching matchup has Robbie Ray (4-2, 3.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) going for the Blue Jays while Bruce Zimmermann (4-4, 4.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) counters for the Orioles. Toronto is 6-6 when Ray takes the mound and the team has given the lefty 5.75 runs per game of run support. Baltimore is 3-8 when Zimmermann gets the start and generated 4.55 runs per game of run support for the left-hander.

Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays on the run line (-1.5) at -113: The Blue Jays have been solid on the road this season against the run line. Toronto is 22-16-0 (57.9%) against the spread as the visitor while Baltimore is just 13-19-0 (40.6%) versus the run line at home. The Blue Jays are also 35-16 in the last 51 games in Baltimore and riding a six-game win streak there. The Orioles, meanwhile, are 1-7 in their last eight games versus a left-handed starter.

Here’s why you’re taking the Orioles on the run line (+1.5) at -107: The Blue Jays bullpen has been a total mess this month. Toronto’s pen has a 4.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and have allowed eight home runs in June. The Jays have also blown six saves since May 20, which is the second most in baseball in that span. The Blue Jays are also 0-4 in their last four games in the opener of a series.

Diving into the total: Taking the under in Blue Jays’ games has been a very fruitful bet lately. Listen, I know taking under the total isn’t fun, but the under is 7-3-1 in Toronto’s last 11 overall and 22-15-1 (59.5%) on the road this season.

Picks: I lean the Blue Jays here on the run line at -113 against a Baltimore team that has dropped eight straight and are just 11-21 at home this season. I also like the under of 10.0 at -112 with games involving the Blue Jays trending heavily to the under lately.

Player prop to watch: Most Total Bases (from Hits), Cedric Mullins (BAL) -143 vs. Marcus Semien (TOR) -105 (via Bodog)

Mullins has slashed a solid .315/.388/.901 this season, but has struggled in his last seven games. He’s got just six hits in his last 26 at-bats (.231/.333/.269), and has never faced Ray in his career.

Semien, on the other hand, has slashed an impressive .301/.355/.523 on the road this season, and has eight hits in his last seven games (.296/.375/.630). Semien has yet to face Zimmermann in his career.

I think there is value in taking Semien here at -105, especially since Mullins bats from the left side. Ray has held left-handed batters to a .189 batting average this season.

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