The Toronto Blue Jays begin a crucial four-game series with the Boston Red Sox tonight at Rogers Centre. The Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 and have won three in a row.
Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.
(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.)
Boston Red Sox (64-46) at Toronto Blue Jays (57-49), 7:07 p.m. EDT
Toronto:
MONEYLINE: -160
RUNLINE -1.5: +127
Boston:
MONEYLINE: +135
RUNLINE +1.5: -153
Total:
OVER 9.0: -120
UNDER 9.0: -100
Tonight’s pitching matchup is Alek Manoah (3-1, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) for the Blue Jays versus Nathan Eovaldi (9-6, 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) for the Red Sox.
Manoah faced the Red Sox on June 14, allowing one run and four hits in six innings for the no decision in a 2–1 Toronto loss at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are 6-3 straight up when the 23-year-old righty is on the mound, and are scoring 5.11 runs of support in his starts.
Eovaldi, meanwhile, will make his 22nd start for the Red Sox. The 31-year-old right-hander also got the start in that June 14 game at Fenway, and tossed 6.2 innings of three-hit shutout baseball for the no decision. Boston is 11-10 straight up and are scoring 4.81 runs of support when Eovaldi starts.
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Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays on the run line (-1.5) at +127: The Blue Jays have been rock solid in this regard this season. The Jays are 60-46-0 (56.6%) overall against the run line in 2021, which is third best in all of baseball. Toronto has also been good as the home team against the spread, going 28-20-0 (54.9%) and are 31-25-0 (55.4%) following a win. They’re also 7-1 in their last eight games as a favourite and 6-1 in their last seven games as the home chalk.
Home cooking is really working for the Blue Jays’ bats. They rank second best in baseball with a .274 batting average at home, first with 90 homers (0.61 per game) and first with an .830 OPS as the home team as well.
Here’s why you’re taking the Red Sox on the run line (+1.5) at -153: Boston has gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, but are 31-24 straight up away from Fenway Park.
The Red Sox are a so-so 56-54-0 (50.9%) overall against the run line this season and 31-24-0 (56.4%) as the away team. But they’re 5-2 in their last seven meetings against the Blue Jays and a spectacular 25-10 straight up in their last 35 in the opening game of a series.
Boston’s bats also travel well. The Red Sox have hit 77 homers (0.71 per game) as the visitor, which is third best in baseball, and boast a .429 slugging percentage on the road, which also ranks third in the majors.
Diving into the total: The Blue Jays have been good to the over as the home team in 2021. The Jays are 25-22-4 (53.2%) to the over and an even better 20-15-4 (57.1%) as the home favourite.
The under, though, is 7-1-1 in Toronto’s last nine games as the favorite. Boston is a stinky 24-30-1 (44.4%) to the over as the visitor this season and 23-24-0 (48.9%) against the American League East.
The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto between these teams.
Pick: I think you’ve got to ride the red-hot Blue Jays right now and take them on the run line at -1.5 (+127). On top of everything mentioned above, he Red Sox are struggling lately by going 1-6 in their last seven and 0-4 in their last four against a team with a winning record.
Player prop to watch: Total Bases (from Hits), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (over 1.5 +160, under 1.5 -213) via Bodog
Gurriel Jr. has slashed .250/.375/.350 over his past seven games, but has hit Nathan Eovaldi well this season with a slash line of .429/.556/.429 against the Red Sox right hander in seven at-bats. Meanwhile, Boston’s Eovaldi has given up five home runs and a .267 batting average overall on the road this season.
I think there is value in taking Gurriel Jr. over 1.5 total bases from hits at +160.
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