The Toronto Blue Jays begin a seven-game road trip tonight in Queens as they kick off a three-game series with the New York Mets at Citi Field. The Jays are 5-5 in their last 10 and have dropped two in a row.
Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.
(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.)
Toronto Blue Jays (48-44) at New York Mets (50-43) 7:10 p.m. EDT
Toronto:
MONEYLINE: -101
RUNLINE +1.5: -195
New York:
MONEYLINE: -120
RUNLINE -1.5: +162
Total:
OVER 8.5: -124
UNDER 8.5: +103
Tonight’s pitching matchup is Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) for the Blue Jays versus Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) for the Mets.
Matz will be facing his former team for the first time since being traded to Toronto this past winter. The left-hander is coming off five shutout innings against the Texas Rangers this past Sunday. In that game, Matz surrendered just three hits with zero walks and two strikeouts, and threw only 68 pitches. The Blue Jays are 8-8 straight up when the 30-year-old lefty is on the mound, and are scoring 6.0 runs of support in his starts.
Megill, meanwhile, is making just his sixth major league start and first interleague start. The 25-year-old is fresh off tossing six innings of six-hit shutout ball in his last start against the Pirates on July 17. The Mets are 4-1 straight up, and are scoring 5.2 runs of support when the right-hander starts.
Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays on the run line (+1.5) at -195: The Blue Jays have been rock solid in this regard this season. The Jays are 50-42-0 (54.4%) overall against the run line in 2021 which is eighth best in all of baseball. Toronto has also performed well as the visitor against the spread, going 28-20-0 (58.3%), and are 23-20-0 (53.5%) following a loss. They’re also 7-0 in their last seven interleague games as an underdog and 6-0 straight up in their last six interleague road games.
One reason for this is the Blue Jays’ bats have traveled well. They rank fourth best in baseball with a .252 batting average on the road, and seventh with 65 homers (0.73 per game) as the away team as well.
As a final note, the Mets are 0-4 straight up in their last four games against a left-handed starter.
Here’s why you’re taking the Mets on the run line (-1.5) at +162: New York has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, but are 28-14 straight up at Citi Field.
The Mets are a mediocre 43-50-0 (46.2%) overall against the run line this season and 19-23-0 (45.2%) as the home team. But they’re 19-7 in their last 26 games as a home favourite and 5-0 in their last five during Game 1 of a series.
The Mets also have the arms to slow down Toronto’s bats. New York has the best team ERA (2.43), WHIP (1.04) and opponent AVG (.193) in all of baseball as the home team.
Diving into the total: If you think the Blue Jays have been an over machine on the road because of their high-powered offence and shaky bullpen, you’d be very, very wrong — the Jays are just 19-28-1 (40.4%) to the over as the visitor, which is second worst in baseball. The under is also 6-0 in Toronto’s last six games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last five games as a road underdog.
The Mets, believe it or not, are even worse as the home team to the over. This team is just 12-27-1 (30.8%) to the over, which is the worst mark in the MLB. The under is 11-2 in New York’s last 13 home games against a team with a winning record.
Pick: Despite the Jays’ strong track record, I’m staying away from the run line in this game. But I do love the total of 8.5 to go under at +103. There is way too much value in getting plus money for the under with these teams being second worst on the road (Blue Jays) and worst at home (Mets) to the over this season.
Player prop to watch: Total Bases (from Hits), Pete Alonso (over 1.5 -102, under 1.5 -127) via Bodog
Alonso has slashed .300/.382/.533 over his past seven games with two home runs. He’s also hit eight homers and has slashed .250/.354/.563 against lefties this season. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Matz has given up nine home runs and a .274 batting average to right-handed bats this season.
I think there is value in taking Alonso over 1.5 total bases from hits at -102.
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