The Toronto Blue Jays will try to snap their two-game losing streak tonight as they kick off a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. The Jays are 7-3 in the last 10 while the Rays have dropped three in a row.
Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.
(All betting lines are courtesy of Bodog, and current as of time of publication.)
Tampa Bay Rays (47-34) at Toronto Blue Jays (41-38) at 7:07 p.m. EDT
Toronto:
MONEYLINE: -125
RUNLINE -1.5: +155
Tampa Bay:
MONEYLINE: +105
RUNLINE +1.5: – 175
Total:
OVER 10.0: -105
UNDER 10.0: -115
Tonight’s pitching matchup is Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) for the Blue Jays versus Luis Patino (1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) for the Rays. Toronto faced Patino on April 25 at The Trop, where the 21-year-old allowed only one walk and struck out three in 2.2 innings. Since then, the right-hander hit the 10-day DL and was sent down to the minors on May 30. But he is now back in the big leagues after throwing 17 straight scoreless innings for Triple-A Durham.
Manoah will pitch against Tampa for the first time, and is coming off six innings of one-run, four-hit baseball against the Orioles on June 25. The Blue Jays are 4-2 when the 23-year-old righty is on the mound, and are scoring 5.0 runs of support in his brief major league career.
Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays on the run line (-1.5) at +155: The Blue Jays offence continues to impress this season. Over Toronto’s past 10 games, the team has a .305 batting average and has outscored its opponents by 24 runs. The Jays are 43-36-0 (54.4%) overall against the run line this season and 20-17-0 (54.0%) following a loss. They’re also 5-1 straight up in their last six against the American League East.
On top of all that, Tampa’s team ERA is 4.96 over their past 10 games and have been ice cold on the road lately. The Rays have lost eight straight as the visitor and are 0-4 in their last four road games against a right-handed starter.
Here’s why you’re taking the Rays on the run line (+1.5) at -175: Despite being mired in an eight-game road losing streak, Tampa has been very good as the visitor against the spread. The Rays are a sparkling 27-15-0 (64.3%) versus the run line on the road, which ranks fourth best in MLB.
Toronto is just 17-19-0 (47.2%) as the home team against the run line this season. And the struggles at home don’t stop there for the Blue Jays. Toronto is 3-13 straight up in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning record, and 1-6 in their last seven overall versus a team over the .500 mark.
Diving into the total: If you think the Blue Jays have been an over machine because of their high-powered offence and shaky bullpen, you’d be surprisingly wrong — the Jays are just 36-40-3 (47.4%) to the over this season. However, they are 19-15-2 (55.9%) to the over at home.
The Rays, meanwhile, are 45-33-3 (57.7%) to the over and second best in MLB by going a spectacular 26-14-2 (65.0%) as the visitor. The over is 9-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-to-10.5 and 5-2 in Toronto’s last seven home games with the total set in the same range.
Pick: I’d stay away from the run line in this game because of Tampa Bay’s struggles away from home and Toronto’s poor record against teams over .500. I do, however, like the total of 10.0 to go over at -105 with the Blue Jays team batting average over .300 and Tampa’s pitching team ERA almost 5.00 in their last 10 games.
Player prop to watch: Total Bases (from Hits), Brandon Lowe (over 1.5 -112, under 1.5 -115) via Bodog
Brandon Lowe has slashed .250/.444/.750 over his past seven games with three home runs. Lowe has also hit 10 homers in 38 road games this season and has slashed .254/.377/.508 against righties this season. Manoah has given up four home runs and a .271 batting average to left-handed bats this season.
I think there is value in taking Lowe over 1.5 total bases from hits at -112.
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