BOSTON — After losing three of four to the Tampa Bay Rays, there’s no denying that selling at the trade deadline is a growing possibility for the defending American League champions.
The Blue Jays arrived at Fenway Park 47-56, last in the American League East and 6.0 games behind in the Wild Card race. Their playoff odds have dropped to 9.5 per cent, so barring a significant reversal, the prudent move will be to sell.
Earlier this week, the Blue Jays were telling other teams that no final decision had been made, and that’s likely still true as they begin a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox. But rival executives are eyeing the Blue Jays as a likely seller, and the players are well aware of that possibility, too.
So, what would selling look like? Ahead of last year’s deadline, I combed through Ross Atkins’ track record as a buyer — and found various patterns that would soon be repeated.
With the caveat that the Blue Jays could always surprise us, it should still be instructive to look back at how Atkins approached selling from 2017-19 and again in 2024. Over the course of four summer sell-offs and 27 trades, the Blue Jays have given us many hints about how they like to do business. Here’s a closer look at what those previous moves suggest about the summer of 2026:
In-division trades are on the table
When the Blue Jays have sold, they've consistently been willing to trade with their AL East rivals — especially when it comes to pending free agents.
None of that means the Blue Jays are necessarily going to trade within the division again. But given this track record, we can safely say they’re open to the possibility.
Blue Jays will send cash if it means a better return
There’s one thing the Blue Jays have done every single time they’ve sold: send out cash to get better prospects.
By my count, they've included cash in trades nine different times while selling — including four different 2024 trades. And it’s worked, with useful players like Santiago Espinal and Braydon Fisher coming back.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays aren’t likely to get the industry’s top-ranked prospects at the 2026 trade deadline. They don’t have a Tarik Skubal-type player to offer up, so they’re more likely to get future role players back even if things go well. But there’s still value in complementary players, and sending out cash can help the Blue Jays push for better ones.
The Blue Jays have been active sellers
Historically, the Blue Jays have sold on a large scale. Consider how busy they’ve been the four times they’ve sold under Atkins:
Some deadlines have been busier than others, of course, but that’s a lot of activity. Clearly it’s possible they have a busy deadline again in 2026.
With that being said, the past isn’t necessarily as predictive here because of one important difference. The four previous times the Blue Jays sold under Atkins, their playoff odds were never higher than 4 per cent. As of Friday morning, they’re just under 10 per cent — a meaningful difference that could impact the team’s approach.
After all, the Blue Jays would prefer to win if at all possible, and even if they do sell, this would be more of a reset than a rebuild. With that in mind, some rival executives believe the scale of this deadline will likely end up being far more modest than 2024, with perhaps three or four trades instead of nine.
Most of the action happens late
While the Blue Jays have been busy, they're clearly comfortable waiting. They've made multiple deals on deadline day each time they've sold, all the way up to a high of three deadline trades in 2024 (Trevor Richards, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier).
Big-league executives prefer buying, of course, but some describe selling as simpler because they have more control over how things unfold. After establishing a strong base level of interest, selling execs wait in case a better offer emerges. Then on deadline day they take the best offer.
It makes sense to wait as long as possible before turning the page on a team one year removed from the World Series, making it likely that the Aug. 3 deadline day will once again be a busy one for Atkins and the rest of the front office.
Applied to 2026
Expect the Blue Jays to wait until the last couple of days before the deadline, then assess their best offers. History suggests that 48 hours before the deadline will include multiple trades, likely with cash going the other way to secure better prospects. Any team could be a potential trade partner, even AL East rivals. And while the Blue Jays aren’t likely to replicate their massive 2024 sell-off, they’ve historically traded at least three established big-leaguers when selling.
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