TORONTO — By Thursday evening, it’ll be clear whether the Toronto Blue Jays have avoided a second consecutive arbitration hearing with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or whether the two sides are again unable to agree on how much he should get paid.
With that in mind, the outcome of this week matters for the Blue Jays and their star first baseman, who’s on track to hit free agency in a matter of months unless there’s a contract extension in place. Until then, every interaction between Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays will be monitored closely, not only by fans but by the entire baseball industry.
That’s inevitable when discussing a 25-year-old who was the sixth-best hitter in baseball last year, as measured by OPS+, and further heightened by his spring training deadline for any long-term deal. When time is running low and the stakes are this high, any insight into his next steps matters.
At the same time, it’s certainly possible to overstate the stakes of this week. A closer look at the arbitration process and what it means for Guerrero Jr. will shed some light on what matters and what doesn’t.
Like all arbitration-eligible players, Guerrero Jr. has until 1 p.m. ET on Thursday to avoid arbitration with his team. Also eligible for the Blue Jays are Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah, Zach Pop, Ernie Clement and the newly acquired Nick Sandlin.
As the week unfolds, front offices around baseball will approach their eligible players with offers in the hopes of avoiding arbitration hearings. That will include the Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team that will go to a hearing with any player who remains unsigned after Thursday’s deadline.
Anyone who doesn’t sign by 1 p.m. ET must exchange figures with their team, and a panel of three independent arbitrators will later choose the submitted salary that they deem more appropriate, based on player performance and past precedent (there’s no in between; baseball arbitrators can’t choose a midpoint). Although this process was once highly traditional, driven by stats like pitcher wins and RBI, arbitration has evolved considerably in recent years with stats like WAR (wins above replacement) now figuring in prominently.
Those are the details, though. Big picture, the question is: Do you agree on value, or do you not? A year ago, the Blue Jays weren’t aligned with Guerrero Jr., who won his arbitration case and earned a salary of $19.9 million, instead of the $18.05 million offered by the club.
Speaking to the media after that decision, Guerrero Jr. said he wasn’t upset that he had to go to a hearing: "It's part of the business, so no hard feelings.”
A year later, the Blue Jays are discussing a potential extension with the four-time All-Star who would headline next off-season’s free agent class unless the Blue Jays lock him up before his stated deadline: the first full-squad workout of spring training in February.
MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2025 salary of $29.6 million via arbitration, but keep in mind there are few comps for Guerrero Jr., not only because of his achievements but because this is his fourth trip through arbitration, a right reserved for a select group of players, the so-called super twos.
Either way, there will be room to make a reasonable case above or below MLBTR’s projection, and if the sides agree on a 2025 salary, that could be the first step toward completing an extension. Yet, the figures are going to have climb far beyond $30 million to complete a long-term deal.
In a conversation with Abriendo Sports last month, Guerrero Jr. said he declined a $340-million offer from the Blue Jays. People close to Guerrero Jr. say he’s legitimately open to signing with the Blue Jays and communicating with team personnel regularly, but it’s clear his price tag is well above $340 million.
Shorty after Juan Soto’s $765-million deal with the Mets, some industry sources outside of Toronto wondered whether Guerrero Jr. could surpass $500 million as a free agent, and although the Blue Jays should be motivated to keep him away from free agency, it appears they’ll have to spend beyond $400 million to prevent him from testing the open market.
For a franchise lacking direction, a deal with a homegrown star would be a strong first step, but nothing about the arbitration process alone will reveal whether a long-term deal is coming. To be more precise:
• Guerrero Jr. could agree to a 2025 arbitration deal and still have extension talks stall.
• Guerrero Jr. could agree to a 2025 arbitration deal and later sign an extension.
• Guerrero Jr. could exchange filing numbers and have extension talks stall.
• Guerrero Jr. could exchange filing numbers but later sign an extension. Really, it’s the free agent years that are hardest to value. In the grand scheme of things, $28 million vs. $31 million should not get in the way of a mega-deal for either side.
Best-case scenario? The sides agree to a 2025 salary ahead of Thursday’s deadline. Such a deal would indicate that the sides are communicating well, if nothing else. But read into Thursday’s results at your own risk because whatever happens with arbitration, the bigger question of Guerrero Jr.’s long-term future still remains unanswered.
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