While the Toronto Blue Jays won the AL East and the AL pennant in 2025, they won’t enter 2026 with an iron grip on their division.
Despite last season's success and notable off-season additions in Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers, the Blue Jays are likely to enter next year as slim divisional favourites. A Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette signing might shift the narrative, but regardless of what happens between now and Opening Day, the team will be grappling with a tough division that wouldn’t be a cakewalk for any club.
With the Winter Meetings wrapped up, it’s worth taking a peek around the AL East to see how the off-seasons of the Blue Jays’ rivals are going and what kind of threat they appear to pose to Toronto now.
2025 record: 94-68
Playoff result: Lost 3-1 to the Blue Jays in the ALDS
Notable off-season additions: SP/RP Cade Winquest (Rule 5 Draft)
Retained: OF Trent Grisham (one year, $22.03M), RP Ryan Yarbrough (one year, $2.5M)
Notable off-season subtractions: RP Devin Williams (NYM), RP Mark Leiter Jr. (ATH)
Publicly linked to: SP Freddy Peralta (trade), OF Brenton Doyle (trade), SP MacKenzie Gore (trade), OF Cody Bellinger, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Tatsuya Imai, SP/RP Brad Keller
Threat Level to Blue Jays: High - Toronto dispatched New York handily in the ALDS, but that doesn’t mean they’re going away in 2026. New York has made the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons, and the return of Gerrit Cole could elevate the team’s pitching staff next season.
Aaron Judge remains a superhuman offensive producer who needs more around him, but the Yankees are likely to add at least one more notable bat, even if that just means bringing back Bellinger. Many of New York’s mid-season acquisitions, like José Caballero, David Bednar, and Camilo Doval, could contribute more over the course of a full season, and hard-throwing starter Cam Schlittler is a breakout candidate.
There are yellow flags here, too. New York’s farm system ranked in the bottom third of the league by MLB.com, FanGraphs and ESPN’s most recent ratings, which could make it difficult for them to outbid their rivals in the trade market. Ownership’s comments on the profitability of the team could also hint at a lack of top-of-the-market spending for the Bronx Bombers.
2025 record: 89-73
Playoff result: Lost 2-1 to the Yankees in the Wild Card Series
Notable off-season additions: SP Sonny Gray (trade), SP Johan Oviedo (trade)
Retained: N/A
Notable off-season subtractions: SP/RP Steven Matz (TBR), OF Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT), SP Richard Fitts (STL)
Publicly linked to: SP Freddy Peralta (trade), 3B Alex Bregman, RP Seranthony Domínguez, C Kyle Teel (trade), SS Bo Bichette, 3B Eugenio Suárez, INF Isaac Paredes
Threat Level to Blue Jays: Medium-High - The Red Sox have a young core of position players, one of MLB’s few true aces and some early off-season trading makes them more dangerous.
Gray is the headliner, considering he ranks fifth among all pitchers in fWAR over the last three years (12.8) while making a reliable 92 starts. His velocity bears watching at his age (36), but he still missed bats at an elite rate in 2025 (26.7 K%), and he figures to be a major mid-rotation upgrade, at least. Oviedo is a wild card after losing 2024 and much of 2025 to Tommy John surgery, but optionable starting pitchers are a valuable resource, and Boston's pitching is in a significantly better place than it was at the end of last season.
The lineup will look a little bit short if Alex Bregman signs elsewhere, but the team appears interested in retaining him and has been linked to a number of high-profile replacements. Outside of Garret Crochet and the rising Roman Anthony, Boston isn’t as high on star power as some contenders, but it wouldn’t take many additions to have them challenging for the division crown. For a team willing to be aggressive in the trade market and the capacity to spend in free agency, that’s not a bad place to be.
2025 record: 75-87
Playoff result: N/A
Notable off-season additions: 1B Pete Alonso (five years, $155M), OF Taylor Ward (trade), RP Ryan Helsley (two years, $28M), Leody Tavares (one year, $2.1M), RP Andrew Kitteredge (exercised one-year, $9M option).
Retained: N/A
Notable off-season subtractions: SP Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
Publicly linked to: SP Framber Valdez, SP Ranger Suárez, SP Freddy Peralta (trade), SP MacKenzie Gore (trade), SP Edward Cabrera (trade), SP Tatsuya Imai, SP Michael King, SP Zac Gallen
Threat Level to Blue Jays: Medium - The Orioles are a team that needs to be taken seriously, even if they don’t have enough proven pitching talent to be feared.
Baltimore already possessed a talented lineup, and the Alonso-Ward duo they added combined for 74 home runs, a 129 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR last season. As impactful as those veterans stand to be, the Orioles could get even more of an upgrade from internal bounce-backs, as many of their best young players disappointed in 2025 and could easily produce more next season.
Not everyone in that group will revert to their 2024 production levels, but a couple likely will, and Jackson Holliday is a breakout candidate heading into his age-22 season. Alonso and Ward are joining a group with tremendous potential, and there’s a strong chance the Orioles are a headache to pitch to in 2026.
Of course, Baltimore could be experiencing headaches of its own when it comes to run suppression. The back of the bullpen got a couple of upgrades, but a rotation headed by Taylor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer is underwhelming. Losing Rodriguez hurts because of his potential, even if he is as high-variance as it gets at this point in his career.
The Orioles' rotation quality and bullpen depth are both questionable, and that will likely be enough to hold them back from an AL East crown, but their lineup upgrades have made them far more interesting than they were when their 2025 season concluded. If they were able to swing a trade for a top-of-the-rotation arm like Peralta or Gore, that could make things even more intriguing for a club that won 192 games between 2023 and 2024.
2025 record: 77-85
Playoff result: N/A
Notable off-season additions: SP/RP Steven Matz (two years, $15M), OF Cedric Mullins (one year, $7M), OF Jake Fraley (one year, $3M), RP Yoendrys Gómez (trade), RP Steven Wilson (trade)
Retained: N/A
Notable off-season subtractions: OF Everson Pereira (CWS)
Publicly linked to: 2B Ketel Marte (trade), SP Zack Littell, SP Adrian Houser, SP Zach Eflin
Threat Level to Blue Jays: Low - The Rays generally deserve the benefit of the doubt, but the early returns on their off-season are uninspiring.
Mullins might be a credible buy-low starter in the outfield, and Matz’s role versatility and 2025 performance are pluses for the Rays. Fraley and the relievers Tampa Bay got from the Chicago White Sox could help, but are unlikely to have a major impact.
The top of this lineup remains strong, and its starting depth is enviable, but there aren’t many other clear strengths, and trade rumours are swirling around key contributors Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz.
Tampa Bay is not a team that can even be dismissed outright, and its presence in the AL East ensures there’s no awful cellar dweller to collect easy wins against. At the same time, unless the course of the Rays' off-season changes dramatically — perhaps with a Marte blockbuster — they will be the least of the Blue Jays’ worries.
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