TORONTO – The next person who finds a simple way to explain the Blue Jays’ wild-card series loss to the Mariners may be the first.
That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays haven’t been seeking an explanation behind closed doors, but more realistically there’s no single reason this team let an 8-1 lead slip away. In the end, it just… all went wrong.
It still stings, of course, but now it’s over – time to plan for 2023. And maybe there’s a simple way to avoid this pain again a year from now: do what the Yankees did – win the division. This much is undeniable: you can’t lose the wild-card series if you don’t have to play in one.
With Aaron Judge on the brink of free agency, the Yankees have no assurances of starting the 2023 season as AL East favourites. That means an opening may emerge for the Blue Jays, whose core players remain under team control for 2023 with the exception of Ross Stripling.
First of all, though, they must determine who will take over as full-time manager and based on what GM Ross Atkins said Tuesday, John Schneider is the top candidate for that position after leading the team to a 46-28 finish. It would now be a surprise if Schneider’s not officially announced as the Blue Jays’ manager within a few weeks.
Until then, let’s consider some ways the Blue Jays could avoid a similar fate in 2023. Big picture, these are some available avenues for improvement …
Improve from within
Let’s start with the most subtle way the Blue Jays could improve: what if their existing players simply got better? Danny Jansen certainly improved in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did the year before that and the year prior, it was Teoscar Hernandez. So it happens.
“We're a winning team that has a really good foundation with a young core,” Atkins said. “One of the things I really feel confident about is our ability to get better internally … we're going to have development that occurs from our major-league roster.”
Could that come from Gabriel Moreno in 2023? From Yusei Kikuchi? Or Zach Pop? There are many candidates to take a leap ahead and those improvements are necessary if the Blue Jays are going to off-set future injuries and decline elsewhere on the roster. Necessary, but likely not sufficient.
Spend in free agency
The Blue Jays have spent on premium free agents in each of the last three winters, landing Hyun-Jin Ryu, George Springer, Marcus Semien and Kevin Gausman. Along the way, the front office effectively swatted away any fears that they’d operate like a small-market team.
But where’s the limit to that spending? As the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette earn more through arbitration, the Blue Jays’ payroll obligations are starting to increase considerably. Of course that’s been obvious for years and won’t catch the front office by surprise, but no final payroll has yet been set by team owner Rogers Communications, Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.
“We feel very good about having the support to continue to build upon this team,” Atkins said.
Eventually, conversations between ownership and team president Mark Shapiro will offer the Blue Jays a clearer picture of what they can spend. For now, Atkins continues with business as usual and that means considering highly coveted free agents.
On paper, Carlos Correa, Brandon Nimmo and Justin Verlander are a few of the many top-tier free agents who would make the Blue Jays a better team (that’s speculation, though Verlander was a Blue Jays target last year). Of course spending on a player of that calibre may also require some creative roster maneuvering to make the pieces fit.
Internally, the Blue Jays have a prominent free agent of their own as Stripling earned the chance to test the open market. After the Blue Jays’ playoff exit, he expressed openness to a return, but he’s sure to have many suitors. Along those lines albeit on a smaller scale, free agent reliever David Phelps said he’s enjoyed his time in Toronto immensely.
Perhaps the easiest scenario to envision has the Blue Jays signing a starting pitcher and a high-end reliever or two (more on that later) but they must first consider even bigger possibilities.
Trade a major-league player
Asked about the possibility of an off-season trade that would disrupt the team’s existing core, Atkins said he doesn't think that's needed. At the same time, the Blue Jays will be open-minded, as they are every winter.
Most obviously, the Blue Jays have three big-league calibre catchers. So far, they’ve rebuffed offers for Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno and there’s definitely nothing wrong with having ‘too much’ quality catching. Plus, Moreno worked on his versatility this season and could contribute in a multi-position role.
At the same time, it’s an unconventional setup that has rival teams wondering what the Blue Jays will do here. Barring a compelling offer for a young player with star potential, it’s hard to see the Blue Jays moving Kirk, who’s four years away from free agency or Moreno, who’s six away. While Jansen’s now just two years away from free agency, he’d also have substantial trade value remaining after his power breakout.
In any case, you’re not trading these players for the sake of trading them, but only if they bring back something so valuable you simply can’t say ‘no.’
Find swing and miss
The 2022 Blue Jays had an effective bullpen, but it lacked swing and miss – a flaw that contributed to their Game 2 defeat. Expect to see the Blue Jays prioritize that issue once the off-season begins.
"We do think we can improve our ability to get strikeouts and to get more swing and miss,” Atkins said. “And we saw the results of that in that (playoff) game … we feel good about the group that’s here and we do feel that we can complement it in a way that will take another step for us."
Ideally, Nate Pearson would emerge from his upcoming stint in winter ball as a strike-throwing arm capable of helping out in relief for 75 or more innings in 2023. Of course banking on that outcome would be reckless, so the Blue Jays must also pursue help elsewhere.
The more power arms the Blue Jays have in their bullpen, the better their chances of advancing deep into October this time next year.
