The Toronto Blue Jays will look to stay hot in the second game of their four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles tonight at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. The Jays have won five in a row while Baltimore has lost six straight and are 1-9 in their last 10.
Below is the betting breakdown for the series opener with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.
(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.)
Baltimore Orioles (23-52) at Toronto Blue Jays (38-35) at 7:07 p.m. EDT
Baltimore:
MONEYLINE: +211
RUNLINE +1.5: +114
Toronto:
MONEYLINE: -255
RUNLINE -1.5: -137
Total:
OVER 10.5: -106
UNDER 10.5: -114
Tonight’s pitching matchup is Alek Manoah (1-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) for the Blue Jays while Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.80 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) counters for the Orioles. When Manoah faced Baltimore on June 19, he lasted 3.1 innings and gave up five earned runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts in Toronto’s 10–7 road victory. The Blue Jays have given Manoah 5.0 runs of support and are 4-1 overall when the 23-year-old gets the start, while the over is 2-2-1 overall.
Harvey squared off with the Blue Jays on June 20 and surrendered four earned runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings with two walks and four strikeouts in a 7–4 Jays win in Baltimore. The O’s have given Harvey 3.93 runs of support and are 5-10 overall when the “The Dark Knight” is the starter. The over is a scintillating 10-5 in games when the righty toes the rubber.
Here’s why you’re taking the Blue Jays on the run line (-1.5) at -137: The Blue Jays have outscored the Orioles 26–11 in their last three games. Toronto is also 40-33-0 (54.8%) against the run line this season while the O’s are a putrid 31-44-0 (41.3%) overall and 17-20-0 (46.0%) on the road. The Orioles have been riding the struggle bus all season, and have dropped a stunning 20 straight road games. The Blue Jays have also won their last four games versus a right-handed starter.
Here’s why you’re taking the Orioles on the run line (+1.5) at +114: It’s tough to make a case for taking the O’s (see above). Baltimore did manage to score seven runs and dinged Manoah for five of them — including four via the home run — the last time they saw the righty last Saturday. Harvey has also only give up two home runs in 30.2 innings on the road this season, so I guess that’s a positive.
Diving into the total: Who doesn’t like to cheer for the over? The over is 16-13-1 (55.2%) when Toronto is the home team this season and 4-1 in their last five games with the total set between 9.0 and 10.5. The over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven games against a right-handed starter and 16-5 in their last 21 games with the total set at 9.0 to 10.5.
Pick: I think there is too much juice to take the Blue Jays on the run line here, but I just can’t trust the Orioles. That said, the over has combined to go 12-7-1 when Manoah and Harvey get the start this season. I think there is value in taking the over here at -106.
Player prop to watch: Total Bases (from Hits), Teoscar Hernandez (over 1.5 -114, under 1.5 -114) via Bodog
Teoscar Hernandez has been swinging a hot bat lately and has slashed .357/.367/.536 over his last seven games, and done well overall at home this season split between Dunedin and Buffalo (.322/.374/.478).
Hernandez has also hit Harvey hard in a small sample this season by slashing .667/.667/1.000 against the right hander. Right-handed hitters on the whole have a .361 batting versus Harvey this season.
I think there is a ton a value in taking Teo over 1.5 total bases from hits at -114.
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