While it looked like the Toronto Blue Jays‘ bid for a playoff spot would go down to game No. 162, it is far more likely to be wrapped up before that after last week’s results.
FanGraphs has the Blue Jays’ wild-card odds at 97.8 per cent, while Baseball Reference has the odds at 97.9 per cent.
The Blue Jays are currently second in the wild-card race and they can’t catch the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto is two games ahead of the Houston Astros and 2.5 up on the Seattle Mariners heading into Monday’s action.
If the Blue Jays go 3-3 in their final six games (against the New York Yankees and Rays at Rogers Centre), they’re guaranteed a playoff spot.
But even something worse could be enough.
That’s because the Mariners face the Astros in a three-game series starting Monday (9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT, Sportsnet One, Sportsnet+).
Also, the Mariners meet the Texas Rangers, who lead the AL West by 2.5 games on Houston, in a four-game series to wrap up the season. The Rangers start a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday (9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT, Sportsnet+).
The combined seven losses in head-to-head games involving the Mariners, Astros and Rangers makes the Blue Jays’ road much easier.
The Blue Jays return to action on Tuesday, when they start a three-game series with the Yankees at Rogers Centre (7:07 p.m. ET / 4:07 p.m. PT, Sportsnet, Sportsnet+).
The earliest the Blue Jays can clinch a playoff spot is Wednesday. The scenario for that requires the Blue Jays to win the first two games against the Yankees and for the Astros-Mariners series to end in a sweep for either team.
