MLB playoff push: Blue Jays can’t afford to cool down in wild card race

As the Blue Jays lost a fiery affair against Tampa where the dugouts emptied, the Yankees and Red Sox both won to push Toronto out of a wild card spot.

Wednesday’s loss to Tampa Bay escalated from disappointing to dramatic with a single pitch when Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ryan Borucki hit Rays batter Kevin Kiermaier square in the back with an eighth-inning fastball, breathing new life into “cardgate.”

While tempers flared on the diamond with several heated exchanges between managers, players, and umpires, tensions rose in the playoff standings.

The Rays’ decisive 7-1 victory saw them clinch a playoff berth that for them was never in doubt, while the Blue Jays finished Wednesday outside the playoff picture after watching the New York Yankees defeat the Texas Rangers to temporarily break the two teams’ tie and grab sole possession of the American League’s second wild card spot.

After a red-hot September that saw Toronto’s offence propel it into the post-season picture, the club’s playoff pursuit has been slightly cooled thanks to two losses to the Rays. Thursday brings a fresh four-game series against the Minnesota Twins and an opportunity to fire up the offence once again.

Here’s a closer look at where things stand in the MLB playoff picture…

If the playoffs began today
The top teams in each division make the playoffs. In addition to the six division winners, the top remaining two teams per league qualify as wild cards for a total of 10 playoff teams.

The wild card teams in each league face off in winner-take-all games for the chance to advance to the LDS against the top seeded division winner. Meanwhile, the remaining two division winners match up against one another in each league.

If the post-season began today, these five American League teams would qualify:

Wild-card game: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays (x) vs. winner of wild card game
No. 2 Houston Astros vs. No. 3 Chicago White Sox

And these five National League teams would qualify:

Wild-card game: Los Angeles Dodgers (x) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No. 1 San Francisco Giants (x) vs. winner of wild card game
No. 2 Milwaukee Brewers (x) vs. No. 3 Atlanta Braves

(*x = playoff berth clinched)

In striking distance
In the American League, their series loss to the Rays means the Blue Jays are no longer in the post-season window but rather just outside of it, going from being up on the Yankees for the second wild-card spot heading into Wednesday’s action to being one win back of New York by night’s end. The Red Sox are two games up on New York, meanwhile, giving them a little bit of breathing room in that first wild card spot.

Behind the Blue Jays are the 83-69 Seattle Mariners, who aren’t out of the running but are 2.5 games behind New York.

Meanwhile, the National League is looking much more locked up with three teams having officially booked their playoff tickets. The Cincinnati Reds are the closest to the final (and only) wild card spot available with a record of 78-74, but hope is dwindling as they’re 4.5 games back of St. Louis. The same applies to the Philadelphia Phillies, whose identical record and win percentage (.513) has them still alive — barely! — in this race.

Playoff odds report
Objectively speaking, here’s where the Blue Jays stand in relation to their closest adversaries, according to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference:

Blue Jays’ FanGraphs odds: 51.4% | Blue Jays’ Baseball-Reference odds: 68.5%

Yankees’ FanGraphs odds: 49.4% | Yankees’ Baseball-Reference odds: 33.1%

Red Sox FanGraphs odds: 96.2% | Red Sox Baseball-Reference odds: 94.3%

Next up
The Blue Jays will look to bounce back from their first series loss in a month when they send Steven Matz to the mound to open up a four-game stint in Minnesota while the Twins counter with Michael Pineda. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox embark on a three-game series Friday, which we’ll all be watching closely.

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