Fortunately for the Toronto Blue Jays, an MLB series is not won or lost on aggregate.
After taking an 18-1 bludgeoning on Friday against the New York Mets, the Blue Jays bounced back to win by scores of 3-2 and 7-3 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. They have not lost a series in a month.
Entering the weekend, Toronto had surged into the fifth seed in the American League playoff standings — and that’s where they remain on Monday morning.
The New York Yankees are hot on their tail (lagging by only half a game) and will have plenty of time to catch up. The Blue Jays play seven of their final 14 games against the Yankees, beginning with a three-game set that opens Tuesday in Buffalo.
If the playoffs began today
The top two teams in each division make the playoffs along with the next two best teams from each league for a total of 16 playoff spots. Those 16 teams will then face off in eight best-of-three series that will precede the League Division Series.
If the post-season began today, these eight American League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Chicago White Sox vs. No. 8 Cleveland Indians
No. 2 Tampa Bay Rays vs. No. 7 New York Yankees
No. 3 Oakland Athletics vs. No. 6 Houston Astros
No. 4 Minnesota Twins vs. No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays
And these eight National League teams would qualify:
No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 8 San Francisco Giants
No. 2 Atlanta Braves vs. No. 7 Philadelphia Phillies
No. 3 Chicago Cubs vs. No. 6 St. Louis Cardinals
No. 4 San Diego Padres vs. No. 5 Miami Marlins
How seeding works in 2020: According to MLB, the top three seeds in each league go to the three division winners in order of record. The next three seeds go to the three teams that finish second in their division, in order of record. The final two seeds will go to the two teams with the next best records, regardless of division.
6 games over .500
2nd in the AL EastGoodnight, #BlueJays fans! pic.twitter.com/7MMqbZaD0g
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 14, 2020
In striking distance
On the AL side, the only drama likely to play out in the final two-ish weeks of the regular season is the shuffling of pre-existing playoff seeds. The Yankees and Indians are both 4.5 games clear of the next closest wildcard contender, the Seattle Mariners, who have won seven of 10 but remain four games south of .500. After the Mariners, the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles — who selected first and second in the June draft — both sit 5.5 games back.
The National League has more potential for some nail-biting down the stretch. The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers are both just two games off the pace of the eight-seed Giants, while the Mets and Cincinnati Reds are 2.5 games behind. None of these teams are particularly hot right now though, as the Rockies, Brewers and Mets have all lost consecutive games. The Reds, meanwhile, won on Sunday but have lost four of their past seven.
Playoff odds report
No matter where you look, Toronto is in the high-90s percentile to reach the playoffs. So let’s turn our attention to the division race instead, where the Blue Jays and Yankees figure to have a contentious fight for the second AL East spot.
Here are the division odds, according to FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight:
Top division spot
Blue Jays’ FanGraphs odds: 2.2% | Blue Jays’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 2%
Yankees’ FanGraphs odds: 4.9% | Yankees’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 4%
Rays’ FanGraphs odds: 93.0% | Rays’ FiveThirtyEight odds: 94%
Second division spot
Blue Jays’ FanGraphs odds: 36.9% | Blue Jays’ FiveThirtyEight odds: N/A
Yankees’ FanGraphs odds: 56.3% | Yankees’ FiveThirtyEight odds: N/A
Rays’ FanGraphs odds: 6.7% | Rays’ FiveThirtyEight odds: N/A
Next up
Following Monday’s off day, the Blue Jays embark on a pivotal three-game home series against the Yankees at Sahlen Field. Taijuan Walker, with a glistening 1.15 ERA in three starts since Toronto acquired him, starts opposite Yankees rookie Deivi Garcia. In his lone start against the Blue Jays, the 21-year-old Garcia earned the win with two runs allowed over seven innings.
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