Between Shohei Ohtani’s two-way excellence and Aaron Judge’s historic home run push, last year provided baseball fans with some of the more compelling storylines in recent memory. But with a new season — and new rules — on the horizon, it’s time to look ahead.
Will Ohtani be able to repeat his 2022 success before hitting free agency? Can Judge come close to replicating what he did a year ago? And what about all of those new rules? On the even of Opening Day, we turn to our Sportsnet baseball writers for their predictions on those storylines, the 2023 playoffs and this year’s award winners.
Without further preamble, let’s get started:
A historic 62-homer season led to a $360-million contract for Aaron Judge. What kind of an encore are you anticipating in 2023?
Shi Davidi: Judge made himself nearly $150 million in free agency with his 1.111-OPS, 11-win performance in 2022 while at times singlehandedly carrying the Yankees offence — an impossible standard to maintain. Assuming he stays healthy, as he’s done the past two years after three-straight injury-shortened seasons, I’d expect something in the 900-plus-OPS, eight-win area, which still might make him the best offensive player in the game.
David Singh: It’s hard to imagine Judge besting his epic 2022. However, the “bet-on-himself” slugger is no stranger to exceeding expectations. I’ll say the Yankees captain breaks the 50-homer mark for the third time in his career.
Jeff Blair: Let’s say 45-50 home runs. MVP finalist.
Arden Zwelling: It’ll be challenging to repeat one of the 20-best seasons in the history of the sport. But Judge’s Steamer projection seems about right: .278/.384/.558, 44 HR, 7.0 WAR. Among the elite of the elite.
Ben Nicholson-Smith: Predicting another 60-homer season would be reckless, but the skills that allowed Judge to set the AL home run record haven’t disappeared. He’s still the best home-run hitter in the game — maybe the best overall offensive threat, too. With that in mind, I’m going to predict 47 home runs — one more than anyone other than Judge hit in 2022.
Finish this sentence: In 2023, MLB’s rule changes will …
Jeff Blair: … be an overwhelming success, and speed up momentum toward an automated or electronic balls-and-strikes system.
Shi Davidi: … be largely accepted and even beloved, in spite of the handful of controversies that will get more play than they should.
Ben Nicholson-Smith: … reinvigorate a sport that badly needed this change. Within a matter of weeks, it’ll be hard to believe we ever went without the pitch clock.
David Singh: … make you wonder why they weren’t introduced years ago.
Arden Zwelling: … be just the beginning. Can’t wait for 2024 when — fingers crossed — the ABS challenge system arrives. The drama within the few seconds between a challenge being issued and the Hawk-Eye decision being presented on the stadium’s video board will be exquisite.
Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent after the season, at which point he may be the most coveted player to hit the market in years. What are you expecting from Ohtani between now and then?
Arden Zwelling: More 100-mph heaters on the edges; more 118-mph laser beams over outfield walls; more 30-foot-per-second sprints up the first base line. He is, without exaggeration, the greatest all-around talent in the sport’s history. Go watch him play live. You’ll never see another like him.
David Singh: An even better walk-year than Judge produced. Ohtani’s WBC performance was him just dipping his toe in the 2023 water. The cannonball’s coming …
Ben Nicholson-Smith: I mean, he’s the best player in the sport. The expectation should be that he’ll continue being the best. No player changes the game the way Ohtani does, and the Angels have one last chance to turn that to their advantage. But if they’re out of it this summer, the bidding for his services as a rental will be unlike anything we’ve seen. And have you checked where the Angels are for their last series before the trade deadline? I’ll save you the trouble. They’re in Toronto. Should be an interesting weekend.
Jeff Blair: On the field? Something similar to last year, with even better pitching numbers. He will finish the year with the Angels because I don’t know how you get value for him.
Shi Davidi: Shohei Ohtani continues to make the freakish ability to dominate both at the plate and on the mound look normal, and by the end of the season, I expect we’ll be asking not how good can he be at both roles, but how long he can sustain being elite at both ends of the field. And that’s really the most relevant point heading into his free agency — can he maintain this not just for three or four more years, but the 10 or so years it may very well take to sign him?
Lastly, what’s one team that’s not getting enough attention?
Shi Davidi: Standard rule of thumb here is to say the Tampa Bay Rays, and I had one scout tell me that he thought this might be one of their more talented groups in recent years, despite a relatively quiet off-season. The Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants might also be better than people are thinking.
Arden Zwelling: Everyone’s doing that thing again where they overlook the Rays. Turns out combining well-rounded big-league talent at every position, one of MLB’s best farm systems, and an uncompromising commitment to a data-driven process guiding deployment and strategy produces an annual contender. And this year, they have a true rotation for the first time in forever. That’s why the Rays are going to win the World Series.
David Singh: The Braves. While all the focus in the NL East has been on the big-spending Mets and their monster off-season, let’s remember Atlanta has won five-straight division titles. The club is not going anywhere and is a true superpower, deserving of the same praise that’s showered on the Astros and Dodgers.
Ben Nicholson-Smith: With Corbin Carroll and some promising young pitching, the Diamondbacks are trending up. Plus, I asked a baseball exec who’s often right about these things and he suggested Arizona.
Jeff Blair: It’s not like the Los Angeles Dodgers are in some kind of witness-protection program. But I think there’s an idea out there that they’re going to be roadkill for the San Diego Padres. Not sure I buy that.
MLB PLAYOFFS PICKS
* denotes wild card
Shi Davidi
AL: Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, *Yankees, *Rays, *Mariners
NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres, *Phillies, *Mets, *Dodgers
World Series: Atlanta over Astros
Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros, *Yankees, *Rays, *Mariners
NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Dodgers, *Phillies, *Mets, *Padres
World Series: Mets over Mariners
Arden Zwelling
AL: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros, *Rays, *Yankees, *Mariners
NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Dodgers, *Padres, *Mets, *Giants
World Series: Rays over Padres
Jeff Blair
AL: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros, *Yankees, *Rays, *Twins
NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres, *Phillies, *Mets, *Dodgers
World Series: Atlanta over Astros
David Singh
AL: Blue Jays, Twins, Astros, *Mariners, *Rays, *Yankees
NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres, *Dodgers, *Mets, *Phillies
World Series: Atlanta over Blue Jays
AWARDS
Shi Davidi
AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson
NL MVP: Trea Turner
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
AL Rookie of the Year: Anthony Volpe
NL MVP: Juan Soto
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
Arden Zwelling
AL MVP: Kyle Tucker
AL Cy Young: Luis Castillo
AL Rookie of the Year: Triston Casas
NL MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes
NL Rookie of the Year: Miguel Vargas
Jeff Blair
AL MVP: Aaron Judge
AL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
AL Rookie of the Year: Masataka Yoshida
NL MVP: Manny Machado
NL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
David Singh
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young: Luis Castillo
AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson
NL MVP: Juan Soto
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
