At long last, MLB’s labour dispute is nearing a resolution and the sport will soon be able to move ahead with spring training and a full regular season. The timeline from here will be rapid, with shotgun spring training camps in Florida and Arizona likely opening within a week of a new CBA being ratified, and opening day looming somewhere three-to-four weeks beyond that.
That will leave front offices scrambling to fill big-league roster holes as soon as MLB’s transaction freeze is lifted, likely spurring the kind of wild activity that invigorated the sport last November. And the Toronto Blue Jays will be right in the thick of it, seeking to put the finishing touches on a win-now team being constructed to surpass the 91-win mark it achieved last season.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at the biggest roster needs remaining for the 2022 Blue Jays and how the club’s front office could go about addressing them on the other side of the lockout.
Navigating the Blue Jays’ post-lockout choices
Use the links below to navigate from section to section, exploring the ways the Blue Jays can address all their roster shortcomings now that the lockout is over.
• Finding a new back-end starter
• Bolstering the bullpen
• Infield options to become real contenders
How the Blue Jays can address their need for a back-end starter
Your mileage may vary as to whether the Chicago White Sox or Houston Astros boast the American League’s best rotation. But it’s hard to argue that the Blue Jays belong anywhere lower than third.
Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios provide front-line track records and big-game experience atop the staff. Hyun Jin Ryu is one of the game’s best control-and-command artists and only a year removed from back-to-back seasons as a Cy Young finalist. Alek Manoah is an electrifying young talent with big-time stuff and an even bigger mound presence. ZIPS projects all four to log substantial innings at an ERA south of 4.00 while producing more than 11 WAR collectively. Any of them would be an opening day starter on at least a half-dozen other teams across MLB.
It’s the best Blue Jays rotation to open a season in years. Lest we forget that over the first two weeks of the 2020 season Toronto was giving starts to Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson. Less than two years later, a lot’s changed.
But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays can stop looking to add. All that front-end talent will do most of the heavy innings lifting for a team with aspirations of winning its division, but it’s the back-end types who will fill in the gaps and help carry the load when one of those four is inevitably unavailable. The 2021 Blue Jays don’t get as far as they did without Steven Matz logging 150.2 innings of 3.82-ERA ball or Ross Stripling working to a 4.69 ERA over 19 starts, including a 3.67 mark over his final 13 after a rocky start to the season.
With Matz a St. Louis Cardinal, Stripling’s currently positioned to fill the fifth spot in Toronto’s rotation, which would be perfectly fine should the four starters ahead of him remain healthy and make 32 starts apiece. But the chance of that happening is next to nil, particularly considering the Blue Jays intend to be more mindful of Ryu’s workload coming off a down 2021 spent battling various nagging ailments, and that Manoah’s 111.2 regular-season innings last year were a career-high by a mile.
There’s no reliable way to predict pitcher health. But there is a way to insulate oneself against the harsher realities of it — building depth. And not merely adequate depth. A litany of depth. A borderline surplus, if such a thing even exists over a six-month grind.
So, if there’s opportunity to add an established, stable-floor, back-end starter to the mix, likely bumping Stripling to the swingman role he’s filled capably throughout his career in the process, the club would be better off for it. Even a top-three AL rotation like Toronto’s can stand to get a little bit deeper.
Internal options (ZIPS projections)
The best thing Nate Pearson could do in 2022 is consistently face hitters, making up for substantial lost development time after injuries limited him to only 63.2 innings at any level over the last two seasons. There are plenty of reasons to believe Pearson can still grow into the front-line starter his uncommon physical tools and otherworldly stuff suggest he could be. But the safest bet for the Blue Jays would be to let him begin that journey atop a triple-A rotation this season, rather than depending on him to hold down a big-league rotation spot from the jump.
Meanwhile, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay have each had their moments and their hiccups over the last two seasons in fungible swingman roles, mixing the odd spot start here with a series of relief appearances there and frequent triple-A stints in between. Thing is, we haven’t learned an awful lot about the pair of 27-year-olds over that span, leaving a wide range of possibilities for what they could be going forward.
Either could fulfill his potential and carry a big-league rotation job. Either could continue experiencing adversity at the game’s highest level and struggle to an inflated ERA. The Blue Jays simply don’t have the luxury of betting on getting the former rather than the latter in a contending year, which is why both Kay and Hatch are best suited to begin the season providing rotation depth from triple-A.
Same goes for Bowden Francis and Zach Logue, two advanced minor-leaguers with 40-man roster spots and the ability to make a non-disastrous spot start if needed. Both are likely to make their MLB debuts in 2022 and capable of developing into back-end starters. But the Blue Jays need to fill the No. 5 and 6 spots on their starter depth chart with options that provide more certainty than that.
Of course, it would take only a couple of untimely spring training injuries to thrust any of these five into a rotation role to open the season. And all of them are almost a certainty to make a start for the Blue Jays at some point in 2022. Injuries and underperformance happen; double-headers occur. But in a perfect world, these five form a strong depth group at triple-A, waiting on call to be promoted if and when disaster strikes.
Free agent options (ZIPS projections)
So, how much risk are you willing to take on? That would be the central question in any Blue Jays pursuit of Rodon, the atomic-armed, oft-injured left-hander who could just as easily win a Cy Young award in 2022 as he could explode into a million pieces right before our eyes.
Non-tendered last December, Rodon earned a job in the 2021 Chicago White Sox rotation on a one-year, $3-million deal, threw a no-hitter in his second start, was running away with the Cy Young award in late June, and hobbled across the finish line with diminished stuff in shortened outings as shoulder fatigue set in over the second half of the season.
Thanks to one of the most overpowering fastballs thrown by any MLB starter and a slider that challenges the laws of physics, the 29-year-old still finished with a 183 ERA+ and absurd 34.6 per cent strikeout rate over the 132.2 innings he pitched. He’s undoubtedly the best starter still available on the open market. But his injury history and rapid disintegration over 2021’s back-half leaves a wide range of possibilities as to the contract value he’ll garner.
Is there a medium-to-long-term deal out there for Rodon? That would all but certainly remove the Blue Jays from the bidding. But if he’s acquirable on a short-term, high-AAV, value-reestablishing deal? Well, maybe that would alleviate enough risk to make Rodon an option.
Here’s a pair of name-brand, past-prime, future hall-of-famers who could be fits on one-year, high-salary, ring-chasing deals in the twilights of their remarkable careers. Both carry plenty of risk, upside, and clubhouse intangibles, making them intriguing potential additions to a win-now club looking for the final piece to push itself over the top.
What it’ll ultimately come down to is how much either has left in the tank. The latter half of Kershaw’s 2021 was plagued by forearm and elbow issues, clouding the 115 ERA+ and solid peripherals he put up over 121.2 innings. Greinke, meanwhile, was humming right along with a 3.41 ERA through late August before collapsing down the stretch and adding three-fourths of a run to that ERA over his final four outings.
Both are relying more on craftiness and guile than raw stuff at this point in their careers, using command, sequencing, and deception to stay just far enough ahead of a new generation of big-league hitters who were in middle school when Greinke and Kershaw were winning Cy Young awards.
But both are still getting those big-leaguers out, while contributing immeasurable value as clubhouse mentors. If there’s budget for either on a one-year deal, the Blue Jays could talk themselves into the upside of a dice roll on one last ride from a living legend over the safer-floor, lower-ceiling return from a more ordinary back-end option.
Seeing the Blue Jays sign Rodon or Kershaw admittedly falls somewhere between fanciful and far-fetched, but a more realistic option could be Yusei Kikuchi, the Japanese left-hander who became a surprise late entrant to the free agent market after declining his $13-million option with the Seattle Mariners for 2022.
The 30-year-old is coming off his best season as an MLBer, having posted a 94 ERA+ over 157 innings with a decent 24.5 per cent strikeout rate and excellent 48.4 per cent groundball rate. But the numbers underlying those base stats are far less promising. Kikuchi’s velocity and spin rates both declined as the season wore on, while his walk and home run rates trended in the opposite direction. And his contact management was atrocious, producing a season-long hard-hit rate and exit velocity allowed within the bottom three per cent of the league.
Still, Kikuchi throws a mid-90’s fastball from the left side with a hard cutter, downward-moving slider, and changeup that flummoxes right-handed hitting. These are the building blocks of a solid MLB starter, and one need only look at Kikuchi’s first half in 2021 — he carried a 3.18 ERA with a .195/.265/.353 line against through his first 15 outings — for proof of concept.
It’s not so dissimilar from the state Steven Matz was in prior to the Blue Jays acquiring him last off-season — a left-hander with a hard fastball and useful secondaries who needed to make adjustments to mitigate hard contact and keep the ball in the yard. The Blue Jays betting on their pitching department having the solutions Matz needed worked out pretty well for all involved in 2021. Maybe Kikuchi’s next.
So, it’s a fifth starter you’re after? Well, here’s a sampling of free agents who fit the bill — signable for a song and capable of chewing up triple-digit innings at a league-average ERA while keeping your offence in games more often than not.
Tyler Anderson has reliably produced results with underwhelming stuff thanks to an ability to control and command four pitches in all quadrants of the zone. He won’t walk anybody, he won’t strike anybody out, and he’ll allow a bunch of fly balls. But in the end, he’s as strong a bet for a wealth of league-average innings as anyone, evidenced by a flat 100 ERA+ for his career. It’s not sexy but it ought to be extremely affordable, making Anderson an option if the Blue Jays find themselves up against the edge of their budget.
Michael Pineda hits all the back-end starter notes — strike-thrower, below-average stuff, littered injury history, serviceable results. Over the last three seasons, the 33-year-old’s made 52 starts between four trips to the IL, posting a 116 ERA+ along the way. His velocity, strikeout, and quality of contact numbers have all been heading in the wrong direction, but he’s still commanding the zone and finished 2021 with 96th percentile walk and chase rates. There’s little ceiling here. But, when healthy, Pineda’s floor seems relatively safe.
Danny Duffy had a weird 2021, leaning on a five-pitch mix to allow only two earned runs over 30 innings through his first five starts, before a flexor strain sent him to the IL in mid-May. He looked uncomfortable upon his return, bouncing between Kansas City’s rotation and bullpen, before the flexor issue shut him down again after only six appearances. The Dodgers took a flier on him at the trade deadline, but Duffy never appeared for his new team and ultimately had flexor surgery following the season.
How healthy and/or effective he’ll be going forward is anyone’s guess. But the results Duffy posted prior to surgery — he finished 2021 with a 184 ERA+ and 25.8 per cent strikeout rate over 61 innings — are impossible to ignore. If he’s still capable of that kind of production in his age-33 season, an opportunistic team could stand to benefit and reap big value on a low-cost deal.
And finally, there’s Johnny Cueto, one of the game’s most peculiar pitchers who, more than anything, would just be fun to have around — pausing, shimmying, and quick-pitching his way to pedestrian numbers. He posted an even 100 ERA+ over 114.2 innings last season, which is the best one ought to hope for from the former Cy Young candidate entering his age-36 season. But as the Blue Jays demonstrated with their doomed, two-year, $24-million deal for Tanner Roark a couple off-seasons ago, they can talk themselves into the value of a league-average innings-eater. And, really, who wouldn’t want to be entertained by it every fifth day?
Potential trade targets (ZIPS projections)
You know what a great way to upgrade the back end of your rotation is? Upgrade the front end. Domino everyone else down a spot on the depth chart and… presto! Suddenly Alek Manoah’s the best No. 5 across the league. And Ross Stripling’s logging quality bulk outings from your bullpen, ready to backfill any rotation vacancies at a moment’s notice.
Of course, this is perfect world stuff. Considering the always substantial acquisition cost, a splashy move to acquire another frontline starter is unlikely from a franchise that’s already netted two over the last eight months in Berrios and Gausman.
But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should shut themselves off from making offers to the Oakland A’s for Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, or Frankie Montas should any of them be up for grabs. Same goes for the Cincinnati Reds and Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle. It seems extremely possible — likely in Oakland’s case — that some of those arms could be on the move prior to opening day. And if the Blue Jays can stomach the high price it’d take to acquire one of them, there are plenty of reasons to give it very serious thought.
Because what if Berrios strains an oblique? What if a comebacker fractures Gausman’s arm? What if Ryu’s down 2021 wasn’t so much an aberration as the beginning of a sudden decline? What if the league adjusts to Manoah in his second season? The loss of any of those four would create a vast void of quality innings and severely downgrade Toronto’s win expectancy.
But adding Manaea’s next-level changeup or Bassitt’s barrel-avoiding, six-pitch mix to the rotation would provide valuable insurance against such a disaster. The same then goes for the lightning-armed Castillo, who would likely drive the highest acquisition cost of the group. What’s the downside? Ending up with a surplus of top-shelf pitching? Gee, in that case, you might just win a World Series.
Prying Castillo or Mahle from the Reds might be a pipe dream, but it’s easier to envision a scenario in which Gray, entering his age-32 season and costing the Reds just north of $10-million in salary, is acquirable. The right-hander battled a cavalcade of injuries in 2021, but still took the mound 26 times and posted a 114 ERA+ with extremely promising quality of contact peripherals.
Gray finished as a 91st percentile pitcher in hard-hit rate, and 92nd percentile in barrel rate, demonstrating how tricky it can be to square up his high-spin, five-pitch arsenal. And with an extremely affordable $12-million club option for 2023, Gray could end up helping the Blue Jays over a longer-term than someone like Manaea or Bassitt, who are both eligible for free agency next winter.
Miami’s acquisition of Jacob Stallings took some of the steam out of the sails of the young-Blue-Jays-catcher-for-controllable-Marlins-starter trade scenarios that seemed possible earlier this off-season. But that shouldn’t stop the Blue Jays from continuing to pursue Marlins arms if the franchise remains motivated to move one to address other areas of roster need.
Sandy Alcantara’s off the board after inking a five-year extension just before the lockout, but if anything that simplifies the process and allows clubs to hone in on his rotation-mates. Pablo Lopez, owner of a 132 ERA+ with strong strikeout and walk peripherals since 2020, is an obvious target as he enters his arbitration years. But the 25-year-old missed considerable time over the back-half of 2021 with a rotator cuff issue, which will certainly have any interested teams finely scrutinizing his medicals.
Then there’s Elieser Hernandez, who comes with an even more significant injury track record that’s limited him to only 77.1 innings over the last two seasons. The case for the 26-year-old right-hander is the stuff he’s flashed when healthy, including strong fastball command, a slider that misses bats, and an emerging changeup.
A fly ball and home run tendency — Hernandez has averaged 2 HR/9 over his career — is a clear area of concern. But that combined with Hernandez’s health history ought to lessen the acquisition cost, as well. And it’s not like the Blue Jays haven’t helped unlock the upside in pitchers with intriguing stuff but spotty, homer-prone track records before. See: Matz, Steven. Or Estrada, Marco.
After signing a two-year, $23.5-million deal with the Houston Astros last March, Jake Odorizzi gave up a ton of hard contact, got hurt, and eventually fell completely out of favour with his new club, ending up left off an ALDS roster and relegated to mop-up duty in subsequent postseason rounds. And he’s only fallen further down Houston’s depth chart since with Justin Verlander re-signing and the club talking up Cristian Javier as a starter.
The money remaining on Odorizzi’s deal makes for a very pricy low-leverage longman, which opens the possibility of a trade. If the Blue Jays believe in Odorizzi recapturing the form he showed earlier in his career and are willing to assume some of his salary — the Astros just narrowly ducked under the CBT threshold last season — they could add a solid back-end starter at a relatively low cost.
This isn’t an exciting tier of possibilities, but back-end starters aren’t meant to be exciting. They’re meant to chew through innings at a league-average rate, five-and-diving their team to a realistic chance of winning before the rotation turns back over.
Merrill Kelly can certainly do just that, having eaten 372.2 innings since 2019 at an almost perfectly league average, 102-ERA+ clip. The 33-year-old’s stuff is far from over-powering and he doesn’t miss many bats, but it’s hard to argue with those results.
Arizona made an easy choice prior to the lockout in exercising Kelly’s $5.25-million club option coming off a 2.4-fWAR season. And with contention in the NL West borderline unimaginable in 2022, the club’s next obvious move is to try to flip Kelly for futures at the height of his value.
Kyle Freeland finished 2021 on a tear, pitching to a 3.24 ERA over his final 18 starts — completing six innings or more in 12 of them — after a spring training shoulder injury derailed the first half of his season. And if you remove a seven-run, four-homer disaster against the NL-best San Francisco Giants in September, the soft-tossing left-hander’s ERA drops to 2.73 over the remaining 17 outings.
There’s obvious inconsistency in that roughshod 2021, and Freeland’s room service stuff will never jump off the page. But results are results, and it appears the 28-year-old still has at least a whiff of the pitchability that made him a top-five finalist for the 2018 NL Cy Young award. At the very least, he’s good enough to hold down a job and provide occasional upside at the back end of a contender’s rotation.
The Rockies, facing the same uphill battle as the Diamondbacks in a top-heavy NL West, do not look like that contender. Particularly as Jon Gray and Trevor Story depart via free agency. And with Freeland entering his second-last year of club control, it’s not hard to envision the franchise opting to move him and recalibrate towards the future.
Finally, there are desperation plays. Mike Minor’s still out here piling up innings — 158.2 at a 91 ERA+ in 2021 — with his high-spin heater and array of secondary offerings. His home run rate’s been ballooning for a couple seasons now, but he still hardly walks anyone and finished 2021 pitching to a 3.78 ERA over a crisp, nine-outing stretch.
Entering his age-34 season, it’s unlikely Minor returns value on the $10-million salary he’ll earn in 2022. But helping the Royals out from under some of that cost could see a team acquire Minor in exchange for a lottery-ticket prospect.
Then there’s Joe Ross, the Washington Nationals right-hander entering his final year of arbitration eligibility. After several inconsistent, injury-riddled campaigns, Ross sat out the pandemic-shortened season and returned rejuvenated in 2021, working to a 97 ERA+ and accumulating 1.3 fWAR through mid-August. But then… another injury. This time a partially torn UCL that ended his season but didn’t require surgery.
Considering the fact he already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, a thorough parse of Ross’s medicals will be critical. But if he’s healthy and looking like himself again for spring training, the rebuilding Nationals might want to move him before disaster strikes again.
Still only 28 and projected to earn just $3-million this season through arbitration, Ross sits 93-94 m.p.h with a couple fastballs and limits free passes. When healthy, he has mid-rotation upside. But “when healthy” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.
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Here’s how the Blue Jays can bolster their bullpen
In big-bearded, bigger-armed Jordan Romano, the Blue Jays have developed a weapon essential for any team with legitimate designs on contention — a lights-out closer. Romano led all American League relievers in win probability added last season, using a fastball that averaged 97.5-m.p.h. and a slider that generated a 36.5 per cent whiff rate to pile up strikeouts, force soft contact, and leave no question that the ninth inning is his and his alone.
When building a bullpen, that’s a great start. And while they aren’t marquee names, Tim Mayza, Yimi Garcia, and — optimistically — Julian Merryweather give Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo solid options with which to get the ball through leverage spots and into Romano’s glove for the ninth.
Mayza was arguably runner-up to Trey Mancini for 2021’s best comeback story, returning from Tommy John surgery better than he was before and working to a 130 ERA+ with sparkling peripherals over 61 appearances, many of them in leverage spots. Garcia can make baseballs behave in ways most pitchers can’t; he also throws strikes and reliably suppresses hard contact.
The only thing keeping Merryweather from being confidently mentioned in the same breath is health, which has sabotaged the greater part of his past four seasons. But if 2022 is the year he finally puts it all together, we’ve seen flashes of what that could look like in a late-game role.
Mix in Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, two capable veterans who can clean up messes and carry leads through middle innings, plus Ryan Borucki, an out-of-options left-hander with a mid-90’s fastball and a put-away slider, and the Blue Jays have constructed the chassis of a versatile relief corps that ought to be able to shorten games.
And yet, we know the words certainty and trust cannot be attached to any MLB bullpen — no matter how promising it looks on paper. Relief pitching is the realm of volatility and precariousness; the small sample of small samples where the link between projection and results is tenuous at best.
To wit — the San Francisco Giants led the majors in reliever ERA last season, powered by waiver claims and minor-league signees such as Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, and Dominic Leone. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals bullpen was a tire fire all year long, despite the club having paid up in free agency to acquire established arms with strong track records like Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, and Brad Hand.
Really, the only thing you can reliably predict about relievers is that you’re going to need an awful lot of them. The Blue Jays used 33 pitchers in relief last season. The Tampa Bay Rays, the 2021 AL leader in bullpen ERA (3.24) and vanguards of the modern era’s evolving methods of pitcher deployment, used 34.
Combine that top-end unpredictability with the necessity of ridiculous back-end depth and it’s clear why the Blue Jays ought to continue reinforcing their bullpen on the other side of the lockout. That means pursuing major-league signings, minor-league deals with spring training invites, and waiver claims — anything to continue building out depth and insulating against the inherently erratic nature of MLB bullpening.
No one needs reminding that the Blue Jays missed the postseason by only a game in 2021. But it’s worth remembering how that team dropped a dozen contests it was leading in the seventh inning or later, and that nine of them came in May and June, when a lack of reliable bullpen options submarined a surging offence and solid rotation’s best efforts prior to the stabilizing additions of Cimber and Richards.
The Blue Jays can’t leave themselves exposed to similar catastrophe in 2022, which is why further bullpen additions — in the form of at least one more big-leaguer with swing-and-miss stuff and several lower-end fliers on minor-league deals — are a must.
Internal options (ZIPS projections)
In an era of fungible bullpens and increasingly varied pitcher usage, every club needs a few optionable relievers on the edge of its 26-man roster. That’s a role Trent Thornton, Anthony Castro, Tayler Saucedo, and Kirby Snead are positioned to fill for the Blue Jays this season — just as they did in 2021. If healthy and effective, they’ll likely ride the shuttle up and down from Triple-A throughout the year, living a thankless, unglamorous professional existence that has nevertheless become commonplace in today’s game.
Veteran right-hander David Phelps, meanwhile, will also return to the club, but this time on a minor-league deal after blowing out a lat muscle last May and missing the remainder of the season. Phelps’s injury — and the surgery to correct it — was uncommon, leaving plenty of uncertainty as to what form he’ll be in this spring. Hence the minor-league deal. His path to a roster spot will be difficult, with several bullpen jobs already spoken for and another major-league addition likely on the horizon.
But of Toronto’s current internal options, Phelps boasts the best track record of success in high-leverage work. And if he’s healthy and throwing anything like he was at this time last year — Phelps had a 0.87 ERA over 11 appearances prior to his injury — the 35-year-old has as strong a chance as anyone in this group of winning a job in the Blue Jays opening day bullpen.
Free agent options (ZIPS projections)
As you’d expect a win-now team to do, the Blue Jays have shifted strategy in recent winters and begun flirting with the top end of the free agent relief market. They pursued Liam Hendriks last off-season before signing Kirby Yates to a one-year, $5.5-million deal. This winter, they’ve already dished out $11 million over two for Garcia.
The value of that Garcia deal alone is greater than the Blue Jays collectively spent on free agent relief over the three prior off-seasons, marking a new willingness to accept the inherent risk — how’d that Yates deal work out again? — of signing high-end talent at MLB’s most volatile, unpredictable position. Which is all to say we can’t rule the Blue Jays out from a pursuit of Kenley Jansen, the best remaining free agent reliever on the board.
There’s no questioning Jansen’s resume in both the regular season and playoffs over his stellar, 12-year career. But entering his age-34 season, the risk of steep decline is very real. Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates have been trending in the wrong directions for some time, and his trademark cutter isn’t the elite weapon it once was, reflected in the fact he throws it only 58 per cent of the time nowadays after leaning on it at a clip closer to 90 per cent earlier in his career.
Still, that also speaks to Jansen’s ability to reinvent himself and find new ways to continue producing results. That’s exactly what he did in 2021, pitching to a 2.22 ERA — his best mark since 2017 — before tossing seven scoreless postseason innings in which he struck out a ridiculous 56 per cent of the batters he faced. Point to his .213 BABIP, six per cent HR/FB rate, and soaring walk rate as indicators of results belying process if you must. But that’s the nature of relievers — their small-sample numbers can be sliced up to support a variety of narratives.
The fact remains that Jansen continues to suppress hard contact better than any pitcher in the game — he posted 99th percentile average exit velocity and hard-hit rates in 2021 — while striking out north of 30 per cent of the batters he faces. And if the Blue Jays have budget for the $12-14 million average annual value he’ll likely command over the next two years, they’ll open themselves up to a potentially immense reward in exchange for the risk they’d assume.
With huge horizontal movement on one of the game’s prettiest sliders, and plenty of spin behind a room-service cutter and fastball, Collin McHugh generated some of the most uncomfortable reactions and swings you’ll see from big-leaguers throughout a 2021 season in which he posted a 256 ERA+ with stellar peripherals, minimizing hard contact and getting hitters to expand the zone at elite rates.
Not bad for a guy who struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 2019 and didn’t pitch in 2020 due to injury. But the Rays lead the industry in hits on undervalued reclamation projects like McHugh, who signed with the club for $1.8 million during spring training and went on to give them 64 exceptional innings as a bulk reliever, opener, high-leverage weapon, and everything in between.
McHugh’s in line for a much more sizable guarantee this winter after redefining his career, but the inconsistency of his track record and a history of elbow issues will no doubt be factored into any offers. Still, if he even approaches the effectiveness he flashed last year, McHugh could be a tremendous weapon — and tremendous value on a short-term deal — in a variety of bullpen roles.
If the Blue Jays opt not to shop at the top of the free agent market, or Jansen and McHugh simply prefer to play elsewhere, there remains a secondary tier of good-but-not-great options the club could consider.
Andrew Chafin is coming off a career year in which the left-hander leveraged strong command of a pair of fastballs, plus a biting slider that generated a 54.6 per cent whiff rate, to finish in MLB’s 85th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and hard-hit rate. That produced an impressive 266 ERA+ over 68.2 innings, although something closer to the 120 mark he held over the half-dozen years prior is likely a more realistic go-forward expectation as Chafin enters his age-32 season.
The ever-entertaining Joe Kelly carries additional risk due to the biceps strain that ended his 2021 season in the NLCS. But the 33-year-old right-hander was pitching as well as ever prior to that, posting a 144 ERA+ with a 27.5 per cent strikeout rate while combining one of the league’s hardest fastballs with one of its highest-spinning curveballs. And he brings a wealth of experience in the ultra-high leverage postseason situations Toronto envisions itself facing come October.
Ryan Tepera, meanwhile, is no stranger to Blue Jays fans and has posted strong results since the club designated him for assignment following the 2019 season, pitching to a 143 ERA+ over 82 innings with strikeout, walk, and home run rates that have all trended in the direction you’d want them to.
Any of those three would be solid late-inning options setting up for Romano, and they ought to be signable for somewhere around the two-year, $17-million value the Houston Astros gave Hector Neris prior to the lockout. If the Blue Jays have the budget, there are worse ways to spend it.
The table above shows the best of the rest. Once the lockout is through, teams will be scrambling to add veteran relievers on minor-league deals to compete for bullpen spots during an abbreviated spring training. And, thanks to their extended track records and serviceable 2021 results, it’s a good bet the representation for every name on that list will be fielding several calls.
If the Blue Jays particularly like any of the above, they could swoop in with a one-year, guaranteed offer in the $1-3 million range to pry someone away from the uncertainty of auditioning on a minor-league deal elsewhere. And it’s worth noting that Brad Boxberger and Adam Ottavino both throw with plenty of spin and feature sneakily effective fastballs that play well in the zone — two traits the Blue Jays have pursued in the past.
Potential trade targets (ZIPS projections)
With the Oakland Athletics widely expected to hit their latest roster reset post-lockout — in what has become a familiar cycle of low-cost competitiveness fueled by young, talented cores followed by cold sell-offs of those players once their earning potential increases to a degree the franchise’s stingy ownership refuses to accept — the vultures are circling.
Just how scorched earth the A’s go this time around remains to be seen. But if the cuts run deep in search of even marginal cost savings, 30-year-old right-hander Lou Trivino — projected to earn just shy of $3-million via arbitration this season — could be on the move.
Working with a trio of mid-90’s fastballs, a changeup for left-handers, and a curveball for righties, Trivino has pitched to a 113 ERA+ over his four big-league seasons, striking out a batter per inning. Those aren’t massive strikeout numbers for a reliever, but Trivino makes up for it by limiting hard contact, annually allowing well-below-average exit velocities. His downfall has been inconsistent control, which has produced an unideal 10.9 per cent walk rate for his career.
Considering the amount of contact and baserunners he allows, Trivino has obviously benefitted from playing for an A’s organization that calls a spacious ballpark home and, not coincidentally, regularly rosters plus defenders behind its pitching staff. The Blue Jays would need to factor that in if they chose to bring him to a comparatively cramped Rogers Centre to pitch in front of a part-uncertain, part-unproven infield.
Still, Trivino’s small salary and three remaining years of club control ought to make him attractive to the Blue Jays, who could certainly find him plenty of work — against right-handed hitting in particular — in the sixth and seventh innings.
After pitching to a 127 ERA+ over his first two seasons in the majors, with a 2016 Rookie of the Year award and 2017 all-star selection already under his belt, Michael Fulmer looked like a lock atop future Detroit Tigers rotations.
But then there were oblique and knee issues in his third season, followed by Tommy John surgery prior to what should have been his fourth, derailing a once-promising career. Back on a major-league mound for the first time in nearly two years in 2020, Fulmer was a shell of his former self, working with vastly diminished velocity while allowing 27 runs over 27.2 innings.
The Tigers gave him one final opportunity as a starter at the beginning of 2021, before ultimately pulling the plug and moving him to the bullpen full time. That’s when something clicked. With his fastball velocity back in shorter stints and his slider coming out harder than ever before, Fulmer put up a 2.25 ERA over 48 innings after being shifted to the relief role, striking out 26 per cent of the batters he faced and finishing the season as Detroit’s closer.
It’s been an incredible and unlikely career turnaround, one that positions Fulmer to cash in as a high-leverage reliever on the right side of 30 when he’s eligible for free agency following the 2022 season. And one that leaves the Tigers with an interesting decision to make.
Detroit is beginning to emerge from a rebuild and splashing money around in free agency on win-now talent such as Javy Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. And Fulmer could certainly be an important part of a push to the expanded playoffs in 2022. Or the Tigers could deal him ahead of his walk year, not only netting a return that addresses another roster need but protecting against the chance Fulmer’s performance regresses.
What we know is the Tigers fielded plenty of interest in Fulmer at the 2021 trade deadline. And they’ll likely be receiving a few exploratory text messages gauging their willingness to move him on the other side of the lockout. Projected to earn $5.1 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility, Fulmer should fit easily within any contender’s budget. And, who knows, maybe there’s another level he’s yet to unlock in year two of his career reinvention.
Well, here’s an interesting one. Coming off nearly a decade of sustained success as one of the game’s premier closers, Craig Kimbrel signed a three-year, $43-million deal with the Chicago Cubs in 2019 that set off one of the most extreme peak-and-valley runs the sport has seen, leading him to the weird and uncertain future he faces today.
He was ineffective and hurt in ’19; just plain ineffective in ’20; and then one of the game’s best relievers in ’21, pitching to a 0.49 ERA over his first 39 appearances and earning the eighth all-star selection of his career. That’s when the rebuilding Cubs traded him across town to the White Sox, at which point Kimbrel became utterly ineffective yet again, allowing 13 runs over his final 23 innings of the season.
Your guess as to why Kimbrel’s performance has fluctuated so wildly, and what his results could look like going forward, is as good as anyone’s. His control has come and gone, his fastball velocity’s been all over the place, and he’s been giving up a ton of home run damage. And yet, he led all AL relievers in strikeout rate in 2021, generated a whiff nearly 60 per cent of the time hitters offered at his curveball, and was among MLB’s top two per cent in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.
One can easily imagine separate worlds in which Kimbrel’s problems are both exacerbated or suddenly resolved. He could become one of the best relievers on the planet again — he literally was six months ago. Or he could be cooked.
All we know is the White Sox paid a high price for Kimbrel at the trade deadline and have since exercised a $16-million club option on his contract for 2022, sinking more cost into an already expensive dilemma. That action not only made it more imperative for the White Sox to return some value on Kimbrel — it made it more difficult to move him.
It’s a real pickle. Any acquiring team would not only need to believe Kimbrel can resuscitate his career once again, but also see a palatable path to absorbing his salary, whether by convincing the White Sox to pay some of it down or shipping a similarly large guarantee in the opposite direction. The Blue Jays could likely satisfy the financial aspect. But whether they believe in Kimbrel’s effectiveness going forward is another matter entirely.
The Blue Jays and Orioles don’t complete too many in-division trades. But with Baltimore mired in a lengthy rebuild, any reliever on their roster ought to be available for the right price.
That includes late-blooming 32-year-old Cole Sulser, who posted high strikeout rates throughout a lengthy minor-league career and generated a 25 per cent whiff rate or higher on four separate pitches in a breakout 2021; left-hander Paul Fry, who’s often struggled with control but consistently generates ground balls and has struck out 28.4 per cent of the batters he’s faced since 2020; Dillon Tate, a busted top prospect as a starter who’s now using his fastball-slider-changeup mix in a versatile bullpen role; and Tanner Scott, an occasionally erratic left-hander with a huge fastball that averaged 96.8-m.p.h. with a 98th percentile spin rate in 2021.
Of course, you could do this with essentially any non-contender, picking out their most interesting bullpen arms who have demonstrated effectiveness against big-leaguers in leverage spots, feature a consistent fastball or whiff-generating secondary, and carry the flexibility of several future seasons under club control. Here, let’s try it with the moribund Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chris Stratton features some of the game’s highest spin rates and has demonstrated the versatility to work in a variety of relief roles while pitching to a 116 ERA+ over 61 appearances with a 26.7 per cent strikeout rate the last two seasons.
During a hardscrabble, injury-hampered 2021, left-hander Sam Howard suppressed hard contact, struck out 30 per cent of the batters he faced, earned an eye-opening 40.8 per cent whiff rate with his go-to slider, and flashed a promising fastball with above-average spin he might benefit from using more often.
And David Bednar is coming off one of the more overlooked relief campaigns across the game, having pitched to a 190 ERA+ with tremendous peripherals and expected stats to back it up thanks to a dominant, 97-m.p.h. heater, big-breaking curveball, and sneakily effective splitter.
Rinse and repeat with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, or Colorado Rockies. It’s a big world of relievers out there, and the job of Toronto’s front office is to find the intersection of availability, effectiveness, affordability, and fit that will reveal the potential additions worth pursuing. It’s not sexy work. But it’s how you build a winner.
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The infield options the Blue Jays could pursue to become real contenders
Where things currently stand (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
When you lay it out like this, it becomes abundantly clear why the Blue Jays absolutely must add an infielder — a pretty good one, at that — prior to opening day. For starters, the Blue Jays have been looking for a productive, everyday third baseman since 2018, when Josh Donaldson missed most of the season with injury before being traded. A motley crew of 10 players have made at least 70 plate appearances as third basemen for the Blue Jays over the four seasons since — none of whom have stuck.
That need remains. But now, with Marcus Semien a Texas Ranger, there are 86 extra-base hits and 6.6 fWAR of 2021 production to replace at second base on top of it. As the Blue Jays proved last season, when the club’s third basemen produced a .692 OPS collectively, it’s possible to have a top-five offence while receiving meager production from one infield position. But it’d be awfully hard when weighed down by two.
The tandem of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal are presently positioned to receive the bulk of playing time at second and third base, respectively. That’s fine if you’re betting on a substantial bounce back from Biggio, who struggled to an 84 wRC+ over an injury-plagued 2021, and linear extrapolation from Espinal, who quietly posted a 115 wRC+ over 246 plate appearances last season but has yet to prove himself over a larger sample against upper-level competition.
The problem is both players generated below-average quality of contact numbers, which contributed to expected statistics that stand in stark contrast to the actual numbers they produced. That makes it difficult to project either player to perform considerably better in 2022, let alone come close to replacing the top-shelf production Semien took to Texas.
Which isn’t to say they can’t play a role on a successful team. Biggio’s strike zone judgment is elite, allowing him to reach base at a .354 career clip. Espinal rarely strikes out, posting an excellent contact rate in an era when hitters are whiffing more than ever. Those traits are undeniably useful. They’re just better suited to a part-time bench role rather than an everyday starter’s one on a contending team.
Adding another quality infielder would allow the Blue Jays to better deploy Biggio and Espsinal situationally, exposing them to the matchups and circumstances in which they’re most likely to succeed. Meanwhile, it’d bump Kevin Smith down to triple-A, where he’d continue his development with regular playing time while providing a necessary layer of depth against inevitable injury ahead of him on the depth chart.
Not that we ever really needed to get this deep into it. A high-level survey of the Blue Jays’ roster reveals a crowded outfield picture, youthful depth behind the plate, and generational talents playing shortstop and first base. That leaves second and third as the most logical areas to upgrade and add offensive oomph to this lineup. And if the Blue Jays want to win their division, that upgrade will be more necessity than luxury.
Internal options (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
With Toronto’s next wave of potentially impactful infield talent still raw and congregated at the lower levels of the minors — none of Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, Rikelbin De Castro, Manuel Beltre, or Estiven Machado are old enough to drink legally in the United States — it’s tough to see the Blue Jays addressing their infield shortcoming from within.
Smith and Otto Lopez each made their MLB debuts last season and will likely have depth roles to play on the 2022 Blue Jays when injury inevitably strikes. But neither boast the track record or pedigree to suggest they’re capable of producing regularly in the majors on a win-now team. Non-roster utility infielder Gosuke Katoh could factor in, as well, but the Blue Jays certainly aren’t counting on the 27-year-old career minor-leaguer to make a big impact.
Meanwhile, 22-year-old Jordan Groshans is still accumulating the playing time necessary to develop and maximize the tools that made him a 2018 first-round pick, having played just 99 games over the last three seasons thanks to injuries and a pandemic. He may yet emerge as Toronto’s third baseman of the future, particularly if he can hit the ground running this year in his first taste of triple-A. But a late-2022 MLB debut is a best-case scenario at this point and the Blue Jays need much more imminent help.
Free agent options (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
Signing Carlos Correa for north of $325-million and moving him off shortstop seems a little far-fetched; as does prying Freddie Freeman away from Atlanta and moving Guerrero across the diamond to a position he hasn’t played in two years and wasn’t particularly good at when he did. But Bryant’s just behind those two atop the free agent market if the Blue Jays have room to add another mega deal to their payroll on the other side of the lockout. And of the three, he’s the easiest fit.
The 30-year-old played at least 92 innings at first, third, and all three outfield spots in 2021, demonstrating the defensive versatility he could bring the Blue Jays beyond their obvious home for him at the hot corner. And with a .278/.376/.504 line and 134 wRC+ for his career, Bryant’s the best bet this side of Correa and Freeman to replace Semien’s elite production.
Ultimately, it’ll come down to whether the Blue Jays both have budget for and see value in the Semien-esque commitment — the Rangers dished out seven years and $175-million for a less versatile player a year older than Bryant — it’ll likely take to sign him.
Story played both second and third on his way up Colorado’s minor-league system, and while continuing to maximize his big power and speed tools as a shortstop is no doubt the goal, it’s possible he won’t find much of a post-lockout market of bidders both capable of giving him Javy Baez money — six-years, $140-million — and needy at the position.
Perhaps that’s where the Blue Jays come in. Story’s athleticism and historically strong defensive numbers ought to allow him to make the transition to either side of shortstop, where his power bat would certainly play. Relocating to homer-happy Rogers Centre would also minimize some of the Coors Field handicap for a player whose home/road splits are impossible to ignore.
Story’s in a tough spot: tied to draft pick compensation, coming off a down year offensively, a free agent amid a historic class at his position. The Blue Jays could try to sell him on a short-term, value-reestablishing deal that gives him the opportunity to reenter the market off a better platform season and with fewer premium shortstop options available. That bet-on-yourself design worked out pretty well for Semien.
But if Story’s not interested in the Semien route, this could be a very expensive option — one that might see the Blue Jays paying for several years of decline to add another right-handed power bat to a lineup already full of them. Story wouldn’t be a spectacular fit in that scenario. But either way, the drop off from him and Bryant to the rest of the free agent alternatives is substantial.
Like, super substantial. Villar is the next best free agent remaining at second or third base and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him emerge from the scramble to fill roster holes prior to spring training with a two-year deal. But for the Blue Jays to be that team would be somewhat of a shock, particularly after Villar’s calamitous, post-2020-trade-deadline stretch with the club in which he hit .188/.278/.203 over 79 plate appearances.
But not for nothing, Villar’s rough 2020 is surrounded by a 107-wRC+, 3.9-WAR season in 2019, and a 105-wRC+, 2.1-WAR campaign in 2021. He’s been a useful utility player throughout his career and projection systems see him as a solid contributor going forward. And if the Blue Jays strike out elsewhere, they’ll have to consider a reunion.
None of the above would be a long-term solution, but any of this trio could serve as a short-term stop gap if Toronto’s pursuit of a higher-impact infielder comes up empty. At the very least, they’d give the Blue Jays another proven, veteran bat on a low-risk, one-year deal, allowing the club to reassess its circumstances in-season and hunt for a more substantial upgrade at the trade deadline.
Harrison can play either second or third, and while he doesn’t add much thump to a batting order, the two-time all-star at least makes plenty of contact and has worked his way to a 104 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR over 649 plate appearances since 2020.
The left-handed hitting Miller can defend practically anywhere, but his three-true-outcomes bat is only playable as part of a platoon. He could be 2022’s Corey Dickerson with the added benefit of more positional versatility.
At 34, Solano is coming off a quietly productive three-season stretch in which he’s hit .308/.354/.435 with a 114 wRC+ while mostly playing second base. There isn’t much in his peripheral numbers to suggest he can sustain this late-career breakout, but he does consistently put the ball in play and can cover at third or shortstop in a pinch.
Potential trade targets (FanGraphs ZIPS projections)
Perhaps you’ve heard this name before? A switch-hitter with a high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and exceptional quality-of-contact peripherals, Ramirez carries one of the game’s most well-rounded bats at his position. And considering how well he’d fit, the Blue Jays are going to be connected to the third baseman until he’s no longer a Guardian.
That seems only a matter of time. Cleveland isn’t typically in the business of paying market rates for elite players like Ramirez, and the opportunity window for the organization to move his extremely payroll-efficient contract — Ramirez will earn $12-million this season and carries a $14-million 2023 club option — for a handsome prospect package is rapidly closing.
Of course, the Guardians could wait until the trade deadline or even next off-season to pull that trigger. Ramirez’s player-unfriendly deal is literally the only guaranteed money on Cleveland’s books going forward, removing pressure to trade him barring an offer too good to refuse. In the meantime, Ramirez might just help his current club contend for a spot in an expanded postseason. And isn’t that the point of this whole thing?
Ramirez and Marte may not be on the trade block once MLB’s transaction freeze lifts, but Chapman almost assuredly will as the Oakland Athletics face a self-imposed payroll squeeze that will likely spur them to move talented core pieces for salary relief. Projected to earn $9.5-million this season through arbitration, Chapman’s one of the bigger cost-saving levers Oakland’s front office could pull. And as an elite defender at third base with loads of power in his bat, the 28-year-old ought to be targeted by plenty of clubs.
On paper, Chapman’s not a perfect fit for Toronto. His line drive, hard-hit, and chase rates have been trending in the wrong direction. And, purely for the sake of a more balanced lineup featuring less redundancy, the Blue Jays would prefer a left-handed bat with an approach less predicated on the game’s three true outcomes. But beggars can’t be choosers. And it’s possible Chapman’s the best infielder available to the Blue Jays once the lockout’s through.
After signing Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha before the lockout, the Mets have created a position player logjam that will require clearing prior to opening day. One of several players without a natural roster fit is Davis, a well-rounded right-handed hitter who’s posted a 130 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over nearly 900 plate appearances since 2019.
Davis is not a strong defender at third base and carries some injury concern after battling a left hand issue last season that ultimately required surgery. But all the 28-year-old has done whenever and wherever he’s played consistently is hit. And with three seasons of club control remaining, including a projected $2.7-million salary through arbitration in 2022, the Blue Jays could easily make room for a puzzle piece the Mets don’t have an obvious fit for.
It’s tough to say what to expect going forward from DeJong, who started his career putting up a 108 wRC+ and 10.6 WAR through his first three seasons before posting below league-average campaigns in 2020 and ’21. Just as it’s tough to say whether the St. Louis Cardinals expect to move forward with DeJong at shortstop.
As his rocky 2021 endured, DeJong first plummeted in the batting order, then conceded considerable playing time to Edmundo Sosa during a playoff push, and ultimately was left out of the lineup in the NL Wild Card game. But following the season, the Cardinals expressed public confidence in DeJong bouncing back and suggested they expect him to reclaim the shortstop job he appeared to lose last season.
Whether the club’s actions align with its words remains to be seen. But if there’s a hint that DeJong — owed $15-million over the next two seasons with a pair of club options beyond that — could be available, the Blue Jays may want to make a call and see if there’s a buy-low opportunity.
Throughout his struggles, DeJong — a second baseman in college and primarily a third baseman as a minor-leaguer — has continued to post solid barrel rates and flash the power potential (.194 ISO in 2021) that fuelled his impressive, early-career production. Still just 28, it’s not out of the question that he could find some adjustments to improve his quality of contact and earn more damage from the consistently high fly ball rates he’s posted throughout his career.
It’s not the design, but there’s always a possibility the Blue Jays aren’t able to acquire one of the more obvious impact infielders available for one reason or another. And with the rapid turnaround from the end of the lockout to opening day only serving to increase pressure and urgency to add someone who can play second or third, the club may have to adjust its sights and seek a creative opportunity to address its infield need.
Could the floundering Royals look to move on from a veteran infielder such as Merrifield or Mondesi with Nicky Lopez establishing himself as a capable big-leaguer, while top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto near their MLB debuts?
Do the rebuilding Cubs continue the veteran sell-off they initiated at the trade deadline and move Happ, a switch-hitter who thrives against right-handed pitching and lines up all over the diamond?
Is there a potential framework to build with the Phillies, a club that desperately needs outfield help, in which the Blue Jays flip Randal Grichuk for one of Gregorius or Segura?
These won’t be the Blue Jays’ preferred alternatives, but they’re options the club could find itself considering as names fly off the board in the days and weeks following the lockout. The club trading from its outfield depth to acquire an infielder certainly has some merit, particularly if it then turns around and signs a premium left-handed hitting outfielder such as Michael Conforto or Kyle Schwarber. Even Eddie Rosario or Joc Pederson could make sense as platoon options to backfill for the subtraction of an outfielder via trade.
There are a lot of roads the Blue Jays could take once MLB reopens for business; a lot of ways to add expected wins to a roster that needs as many of them as it can get. But all of those roads lead to the Blue Jays adding an infielder. For this team to contend, no upgrade is more necessary.
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