Which Blue Jays will exceed (and fall short of) their 2024 projections?

Everything about the Toronto Blue Jays’ quiet off-season has suggested they haven’t meaningfully improved — and that’s precisely how the projections see it.

FanGraphs’ has pegged the Blue Jays for 85 wins in 2024, a notable step back for a team that’s averaged 90.67 victories over the last three years. 

The good news for Toronto is that just five teams have better projections as widespread mediocrity — or laudable parity, depending on your point of view — seems to be the expectation for the 2024 MLB season. The bad news for Toronto is that two of those five squads are in their division (the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays) while another AL East club (the Baltimore Orioles) sit right alongside the Blue Jays at 85 wins.

While the Blue Jays’ projection is a useful baseline expectation for the team’s season, it’s made up of a number of player projections — and some players are extremely difficult to pin down. 

How Toronto performs relative to expectations will depend on whether they have projection-busting players, and which way those guys deviate from their forecasted production. 

Below are the Blue Jays players who seem likeliest to prove the projections wrong, in one way or another.

Likely overperformers

Bo Bichette

Average of FanGraphs projections

Bichette should be an easy player to project because he’s so consistent on a year-to-year basis. 

What FanGraphs’ systems have come up with is far from absurd, but there’s every reason to believe they are low on Bichette — even if it’s by a relatively narrow margin.

The shortstop has topped a 121 wRC+ in each of his last three seasons, and averaged a 125 mark over that time. He’s also coming off a campaign that saw him produce a career-low in strikeout rate (19.1 per cent) and career-high xwOBA (.364) — a promising combination of increased contact and better contact quality.

Although there has been speculation about how Bichette’s offensive game might age because his aggressive style is reliant on elite bat speed and reaction time, heading into his age-26 season it’s too early to worry about that. There’s always a chance that he gains a little more patience as hitters tend to become more selective and walk more as they get deeper into their MLB careers.

Bichette also produced the best defensive metrics of his career in 2023 and sustaining that growth could elevate his fWAR total. 

Jordan Romano

Average of FanGraphs projections

Of all the projections we’re addressing here, Romano’s are the most bizarre.

The closer is expected to post an ERA far higher than he’s had in any season since he arrived on the scene as a high-leverage reliever in 2020. Since that shortened campaign he’s never topped a 2.90 ERA, averaging a 2.29 mark — the eighth-best among qualified relievers during that time.

While Romano’s projected walk and strikeout rates look reasonable, there is a confusing expectation that home runs will suddenly become a problem for him despite the fact his career HR/9 is 0.97 and he hasn’t been above 1.00 in any of the last three years.

Romano’s track record says that he’s an elite reliever, and there’s no reason to believe his performance is headed off a cliff in 2024.

Daulton Varsho

Average of FanGraphs projections

Considering how poorly Varsho performed offensively last season, some of these numbers might appear downright generous.

They aren’t outlandish based on his 2021 and 2022 campaigns and late-season performance last year, but there’s reason for some level of skepticism. You could make a case for taking the over or under on them.

Varsho appears in this category due to his fWAR projection, as it seems like his work with the glove is not being respected. 

None of FanGraphs’ systems predict his defensive value will exceed 3.6 runs when it hasn’t dropped below 7.1 in any of his last three seasons. Even in 2023, when the amount of time he spent in left field limited his defensive ceiling somewhat, that number sat at 9.1.

Since 2021, Varsho has averaged 3.7 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. While the starts he loses against southpaws might mean he comes in under that playing time threshold, he’s still a good bet to be a three-win player, or better.

Likely underperformers

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Average of FanGraphs projections

There is absolutely no doubt that Guerrero is capable of putting up numbers like the ones above. His ceiling is well above this line and he won’t have to fall far short of them for his 2024 season to be considered a disappointment.

At the same time, this projection asks the first baseman to produce a fWAR total that exceeds his 2022 and 2023 seasons combined (3.8) and generate the kind of power output he’s attained in one of his first five MLB seasons.

Much of Guerrero’s uninspired performance last season was attributed to his difficulties hitting at Rogers Centre (99 wRC+ with just 10 home runs in 79 games), but even isolating his road performance (137 wRC+) he fell short of what this projection asks of him.

Of all the players on this list Guerrero has the most room to make his designation look foolish in 2024, but it’s hard to expect any player to exceed his production from the last two seasons by such a significant margin.

Alejandro Kirk

Average of FanGraphs projections

Like Guerrero, Kirk has it in him to exceed this projection. 

At the same time, it’s tough to ask a guy coming off a 1.6 fWAR season to nearly double his value the following year — particularly when he needed stellar defensive numbers to reach that total in the first place.

The biggest issue with Kirk’s projection is that it demands he produce a .144 isolated slugging when he didn’t even manage that during his career-best year in 2022, and was a pure singles hitter in 2023.

Kirk flashed more gap-to-gap power when he first arrived in the major leagues, but in 717 plate appearances since July 1, 2022, his ISO sits at .095. 

Last season he was truly punchless with an expected wOBA on contact of .310, which was in the bottom six per cent of the league.

To put that in perspective, his overall xwOBA was .320, meaning that making contact with the ball was actually a counterproductive act for Kirk, who had a better chance of making an impact leaving the bat on his shoulder and drawing walks.

Kirk’s plate discipline and contact ability are outstanding, but until he shows a little more thump it’s tough to see him as a well above-average hitter the way his projections do.

Trevor Richards

Average of FanGraphs projections

If the Blue Jays could be confident Richards would post numbers like this, his job would be much safer. 

The right-hander would have significant value if he could give his team slightly above-average run prevention while providing length and missing bats. That seems difficult to count on, though.

Richards has a 5.40 ERA in 111 relief outings over the past two seasons. That’s the worst number in the majors among the 111 pitchers who threw 100-plus relief innings in that time. He struggles to avoid free passes and keep the ball in the park, which is a difficult combination to navigate.

The 30-year-old is currently in the midst of a rough spring where the quality of his stuff has not impressed. If he hangs onto his current spot it will have a great deal to do with the fact he’s out of options, but whether he sticks with the Blue Jays or winds up somewhere else, these projections are too generous.