We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty in the 2026 MLS regular season.
The 18-team playoff field has largely taken shape as 10 clubs have already punched tickets to the post-season with three matches remaining in the campaign.
The playoff picture could come into further focus by the end of Wednesday’s schedule of games (featuring 28 of the league’s 30 clubs), with the possibility of six teams clinching a post-season spot and another seven being officially eliminated from contention.
Of the 14 matches on tap in a make-or-break Matchday 33, none has higher stakes than the contest between Toronto FC and D.C. United at BMO Field.
TFC (8-11-12, 36 points) currently occupies 11th in the Eastern Conference, two spots and three points below the New York Red Bulls, who hold down the ninth and final playoff berth. Toronto can potentially move into a tie for ninth with a win versus D.C., which sits 13th in the East with a 7-12-12 record, three points adrift of TFC.
But a loss by Toronto in its final home game of the regular season, combined with a win by the Red Bulls away to the New England Revolution, would eliminate coach Robin Fraser's side from playoff contention. In such a case, New York would qualify.
At the same time, D.C. would be eliminated with a loss to Toronto. They would also be eliminated in three other scenarios, including a draw against TFC and if the Red Bulls win at New England. So, both Toronto and D.C. have plenty to play for in what promises to be a tension-filled match.
“As athletes, these are moments that you remember for a long time because it's on a knife's edge, and if you do things correctly and come out on the right side of it, it's an unbelievable boost to your confidence and a source of pride, to be quite honest. It's being aware of the magnitude of the moment, but not being overwhelmed by it," Fraser said this week.
DP forward Josh Sargent added: "[Wednesday is] a final for us, basically. We gotta push as hard as we can from the very beginning and just be ready for the challenge because it's not going to be easy."
A draw by TFC against D.C. would keep them alive in the playoff race, but they would have to win their final two games of the season: away to Atlanta United (Nov. 1) and the Philadelphia Union (Nov. 7). That doesn’t seem very likely considering Toronto has one of the worst road records (3-9-3) in MLS this year. It has also only won back-to-back games once during Fraser’s tenure as coach, which began at the start of the 2025 season.
Still, TFC winger and Canadian international Theo Corbeanu refuses to concede defeat.
“There's three games and I think if we can play our best football in these three games and finish off on a high, continue our belief and fight until the end and replicate some of the good things that we were able to display today on show, I'm pretty sure we can put ourselves in a respectable position,” Corbeanu said after last weekend’s road loss to the Columbus Crew.
Things are far more straightforward for a pair of TFC’s Eastern Conference rivals when it comes to advancing to the post-season. Fifth-place Charlotte FC can clinch with a win or draw against visiting CF Montreal, and sixth-place Philadelphia Union can qualify with a road win over conference-leading Nashville SC.
Seventh-place Orlando City can move on with a win away versus the Chicago Fire if Columbus simultaneously loses away to FC Dallas. And eighth-place FC Cincinnati can secure a post-season berth with a road win against Inter Miami, and if Dallas beats Columbus.
Three playoff spots remain up for grabs in the Western Conference, but only two could be claimed on Wednesday, with the Seattle Sounders and Colorado Rapids in pole position to do so.
Seattle would clinch with a win away to the Houston Dynamo and if the Portland Timbers lose or draw at St. Louis City SC.
Colorado not only needs to win on the road versus the San Jose Earthquakes but must also rely on St. Louis beating Portland and Real Salt Lake losing or drawing away to Austin FC.
Teams fighting to stave off elimination on Wednesday include Atlanta United (a loss or draw at New York City FC), San Diego FC (a loss at the Vancouver Whitecaps), Minnesota United FC (a home loss to Sporting Kansas City) and Austin (a loss or draw vs. Salt Lake). There’s also an outside chance that NYCFC could be eliminated, but they would avoid that with a win against Atlanta.
Elsewhere in MLS on Wednesday…
• The Vancouver Whitecaps are vying to finish atop the Western Conference, assuring themselves home field advantage in the playoffs. But Vancouver’s hold on first place has become tenuous in recent weeks, and it runs the risk of being overtaken if it doesn’t beat San Diego FC. A win by FC Dallas over the visiting Columbus Crew will propel the Lone Star State club to the top of the West if the Whitecaps drop points at home to San Diego.
• CF Montreal was eliminated from playoff contention last weekend and are on course to finish bottom of the Eastern Conference standings – and it could be leapfrogged by Sporting Kansas City by the end of the season and drop into last place in the overall league table. Montreal will try to put a stop to that and end a four-match winless skid when it visits Charlotte FC.
• Nashville SC looks down on everybody else in the MLS standings and clinched the Supporters' Shield (regular-season championship) last weekend. But now the team from Music City USA is looking to make history as it sits on 70 points and is closing in on Inter Miami’s record for the most points in an MLS season (74, in 2024). Nashville can take another step towards that goal with a home win over the Philadelphia Union.
• Another MLS record could be equalled by the end of the current campaign. Toronto FC set the mark for fewest points in a modern era, 34-game MLS season when it collected just 22 points in 2023. Sporting Kansas City currently sits in last place in the MLS table with 22 points. Winless in its last five matches, Kansas City can avoid joining TFC in the annals of league infamy with a win or draw away to Minnesota United.
• Two of the league’s best playmakers will go head-to-head when Inter Miami welcomes FC Cincinnati to Nu Stadium. Lionel Messi looks a good bet to win the Golden Boot as the league’s top scorer, as he currently leads the race with 25 goals, three more than Petar Musa of FC Dallas. But Brazilian star Evander could deny Messi from topping the assists leaderboard by the end of the season – they’re tied for the top spot on the leaderboard with 15 assists apiece.
Editor’s note
John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 27 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer.