Friday night in Connecticut, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza cemented his standing as one of the top contenders in the middleweight division with a third-round submission win over Gegard Mousasi.
If we’re being completely honest, it was the kind of statement effort that you look for from a fighter angling for a title shot – a manhandling of a legitimate top-10 talent, complete with a finish and the requisite praise from the MMA media. This wasn’t Souza running through an overmatched opponent with an inflated record and shaking standing in the division – this was the Brazilian closing the distance and thoroughly dominating Mousasi from start to finish and, couple with his three other UFC victories and overall seven-fight winning streak, it should be enough to earn him a crack at the middleweight championship.
But that probably won’t be the case.
First and foremost, the logistics just don’t line up in his favour. Having just won Friday night (Sept. 5), Souza has a three-month wait until Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort battle for the belt at UFC 181 in December. If the winner makes a quick turnaround, the earliest he’s back in the cage is six months from now, with nine or 10 months seeming like a more realistic projection.
Secondly and tied into the first part is the fact that Luke Rockhold, who beat Souza under the Strikeforce banner, and Michael Bisping, the perennial contender and established draw, are set to settle their differences in early November. The winner of that one will be on a closer timeline to the Weidman-Belfort victor and given that whoever emerges would be a bigger name than “Jacare,” the chances of the Brazilian standout moving to the top of the list seem dicey.
So what comes next for the well-rounded talent? The most likely scenario appears to be a matchup with the winner of the impending scrap between Tim Kennedy and Yoel Romero.
Souza actually beat Kennedy during their time in Strikeforce, but that was several years ago and if the Army Ranger adds another win to his resume, he too will be knocking on the door and looking for a title shot, having beaten Bisping earlier in the year. Romero might be a little further away, but halting Kennedy’s run while pushing his own winning streak to five would put the Olympic silver medalist in the mix.
Either of those pairings would be No. 1 contender-type fights and quality stylistic clashes – they might also be the best case scenario for Souza, save for maybe Belfort pulling out of his fight with Weidman and him getting the call to fill in.
Here’s a look at the matchups I would make for the rest of Friday’s main card winners.
Ben Rothwell vs. Josh Barnett
My original idea was to have “Big Ben” follow up his first-round knockout win over Alistair Overeem (and the best post-fight dance this side of Bethe Correia) with a bout against the winner of the Roy Nelson-Mark Hunt tussle in Japan, but as my good friend Duane Finley from Bleacher Report reminded me, Rothwell already fought “Big Country” way back when in the IFL and lost to Hunt under the UFC banner.
I guess I blocked out the Hunt fight. While I think a bout with Nelson could still be a possibility, why not pair him off with another heavyweight veteran in Barnett? Though he’s coming off a loss, it keeps the UFC from potentially getting one of their few emerging heavyweights clipped by a veteran whose ceiling has already been established.
Although, Rothwell insists this is the start of something big and after the way he weathered the storm and laid waste to Overeem, he might be right.
Matt Mitrione vs. Stefan Struve or Bigfoot/Arlovski winner
Provided the Dutch heavyweight is cleared to return to action, it would make sense to line Mitrione up against the man he was supposed to face earlier in the year.
That being said, if Struve is going to be sidelined for a while, the most logical next step would be to slot “Meathead” in opposite the winner of this month’s Antonio Silva-Andrei Arlovski fight, simply because there aren’t a lot of heavyweight options at this time.
Mitrione will likely break into the rankings on Monday and needs to keep working his way up, while Silva and Arlovski are both veterans that have been in the cage with several of the top talents in the division already. At this point they’re measuring sticks for guys like Mitrione, and big boy bouts that carry a high likelihood of ending with someone going to sleep are always an easy sell.
And someone would go to sleep no matter who you slotted Mitrione in against next.
Joe Lauzon vs. Edson Barboza
This was the matchup I called for back when Barboza beat Evan Dunham in July and I’m sticking with it.
Lauzon is the ideal type of gatekeeper to put in there opposite Barboza – he’s got solid hands, a slick submission game and heart for days, so you don’t have to worry about him wilting under the offensive pressure the Brazilian brings. Additionally, he’s a big enough name that a convincing win over Barboza would be enough to carry him into some of the bigger potential matchups that exist for him in the division.
That’s not to say it’s a bad matchup for Lauzon, but he’s already had a crack at the top 10 (a couple times) and we know how that tends to go. Keep running him out there in entertaining fights designed to test his opponent.