The UFC takes centre stage during International Fight Week with not one, not two, but three UFC events taking place from Thursday to Saturday.
We have already seen four champions lose their belts in 2016 and that number could potentially double in the coming days with four titles eligible to change hands. (There are actually five title fights this week but Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar is for an interim title so no belt will be changing hands in that one.)
With that in mind, we rank the likelihood of each current losing their belts this week from least likely to most likely.
4. Rafael dos Anjos
Defending his lightweight title vs. Eddie Alvarez at UFC Fight Night 90
Alvarez (27-4) is a heavy underdog but this isn’t anything new for him. The former Bellator champion was a 3-1 underdog against former UFC champion Anthony Pettis when he beat him in January. He has all the tools to compete with the best. Sharp boxing, solid wrestling and most importantly durability and endurance. Dos Anjos (25-7) has been on a warpath winning nine of his last 10 fights including dominant performances against Donald Cerrone, Pettis and Nate Diaz. His grappling has been his main strength but his striking has recently become lethal. For Alvarez to pull off the upset, he’ll have to survive dos Anjos’ early onslaught and find a way to make it a war of attrition.
3. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Defending her strawweight title vs. Claudia Gadelha at the TUF 23 Finale
Jedrzejczyk (11-0) and Gadelha (13-1) are bitter rivals and fought back in 2014 when the current champ earned a controversial split decision victory. During the fight, Gadelha landed seven takedowns and controlled Jedrzejczyk for most of the fight but it was Jedrzejczyk who did the most damage when she hurt Gadelha several times including knocking her down in the first. Since then, Jedrzejczyk has blazed through the competition with her pinpoint striking and improved wrestling defence while Gadelha continues to dominate with her grappling as she showed against former WSOF champion Jessica Aguilar in her last fight at UFC 190.
In this striker versus grappler matchup, both fighters have a path to victory. If Jedrzejczyk neutralizes Gadelha’s wrestling, she will out-strike her and knock her out but the Brazilian underdog will be relentless with her grappling and can neutralize the prolific champion.
2. Miesha Tate
Defending her women’s bantamweight title vs. Amanda Nunes at UFC 200
Although Nunes (12-4) is the most unsung fighter on the UFC 200 main card, she has an excellent chance to pull off an upset. The No. 4 women’s bantamweight contender is a large fighter and has routinely knocked out fighters in the first round. Nunes trounced Sara McMann, an Olympic silver medallist wrestler who gave Tate a run for her money, last summer. She starts very quickly and has gone the distance twice in her career.
Tate (18-5) is a tenacious wrestler who is still developing her striking. Her most important asset is her heart and she continues to prove she’s able to overcome her slow starts. McMann dropped her and former champion Holly Holm out-pointed her for most of their fight, but Tate dug deep and came back to win both times. Tate can’t afford to start slowly against Nunes, who will throw everything but the kitchen sink at her. Nunes has dangerous submissions and knockout power. As durable as Tate is, if she can’t weather the early storm, she may lose the title she worked so hard earn.
(UPDATE: Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones has been cancelled)
1. Daniel Cormier
Defending his light-heavyweight title vs. Jon Jones at UFC 200
This is the biggest fight of the week and Jones (22-1) is the decided favourite here. Jones emphatically defeated Cormier (17-1) in their first bout and he is primed to repeat history here. Since losing his title and taking time off, Jones worked on his strength and conditioning but underwhelmed in his return bout against Ovince Saint Preux at UFC 197. There may have been a bit of cage rust but Jones still soundly defeated his dangerous opponent. Against Cormier, Jones will have to show up in his best form to defeat him again. He has the size, reach and overall skill advantage and should outclass the former Olympian. For Cormier, he will have to give the performance of his life. If they both show up at their best, Jones will use his more versatile skill set to recapture the title that it is rightfully his.
