When Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor met on short notice in March, it was something special. The rivalry has since become a phenomenon and the anticipated rematch is finally here as UFC 202 goes down Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in las Vegas.
It isn’t the only exciting matchup on the main card either.
So, with the help of Sportsnet MMA contributors James Lynch and Paolo Go, we predict what will happen in the three marquee UFC 202 bouts plus give one preliminary card upset pick.
Here we go…
Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor
Johnston: McGregor by TKO. We more or less know what we’re going to see from Diaz when he fights. He’ll start slowly, find his range, peg you with a check hook and his patented one-two, and if it goes to the ground he’ll work you. It’s exactly what we saw at UFC 196, but I say it’ll be different the second time around. McGregor has been meticulous when it comes to making adjustments. He’s the more cerebral fighter and needs to be. He also needs to throw leg kicks and mix up his attack, something he didn’t do the first time around. If you’re a McGregor fan, one thing that should make you nervous is the fact he has been emotional this week. If he’s too emotional in the cage it won’t go well. If he remains calculated, though, he’ll tune Diaz up like he did early in their first encounter except this time he’ll leave something in the tank. I see this fight going similarly to Nate’s fight with Josh Thomson.
Lynch: Diaz by submission. Always hard picking against McGregor but I can’t see him winning a decision or knocking out a durable lightweight like Diaz – who has only been stopped once in his UFC career. In addition to having a height and reach advantage, the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product is miles ahead of McGregor on the ground. That threat alone makes me think Diaz can pull of another upset and potentially earn a shot at the lightweight title in the process.
Go: Diaz by stoppage. McGregor couldn’t finish Diaz even by throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him. Even if he tries a more measured approach, the pride of Stockton will emerge victorious in the latter rounds.
Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
Johnston: Texieira by submission. Both fighters leave themselves open when throwing power punches, so I’d expect the beginning of the end to occur when someone lands a counter shot. Since Johnson is slightly more aggressive, Texieira is more likely to land the counter I’m referring to. Everyone’s talking about Johnson’s power but he won’t be able to simply walk through what Glover offers. Glover hits like a truck too and when his opponents are rocked he can finish with his excellent grappling. Johnson will have a speed advantage early but Texieira’s skill set is terribly underrated and underappreciated.
Lynch: Johnson by knockout. “Rumble” has the most devastating knockout power in the division and despite this, Texieira will still likely want to engage in a standup war which is going to be a bad idea. If Teixeira can somehow survive the early rounds the Brazilian could pull off the upset but the 36-year-old isn’t Daniel Cormier and won’t be able to compete with the power and speed of his younger adversary. Rumble with the early knockout.
Go: Johnson by knockout. Johnson either finishes this fight quickly or Teixeira weathers his storm, tires him out and wrestles him into a submission. Let’s go with Rumble by a quick and brutal knockout.
Donald Cerrone vs. Rick Story
Johnston: Story by decision. Story’s striking is stiff, his wrestling and submission attack somewhat rudimentary yet the brute force and bullish strength he employs gets the job done almost every time. If Cerrone can walk through Story the way he did Patrick Cote, “Cowboy” could legitimately be one win away from a welterweight title shot. I just can’t see him dominating Story like that.
Lynch: Cerrone by decision. Unless Story can use his wrestling to neutralize “Cowboy’s” standup, it’s going to be another one sided striking clinic by Cerrone in this fight. Expect the Jackson-Winkeljohn product to continue his momentum in the welterweight division by using leg kicks and boxing to outpoint Story over the three-round affair.
Go: Cerrone by decision. This is a tough fight for Cerrone who has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters like Story but he will utilize his kickboxing and deadly jiu-jitsu to win at least two of three rounds.
Upset picks
Johnston: Lorenz Larkin over Neil Magny. Larkin isn’t ranked in the top-15 at 170 pounds while Magny is the current No. 7 contender. That’s crazy to me. Larkin has better deadly striking and that will be the difference here. Larkin is a legitimate dark horse in this division.
Lynch: Alberto Uda over Marvin Vettori. Despite being the older fighter in this matchup, I expect Uda to catch UFC newcomer Vettori early in the fight for a quick stoppage victory.
Go: Max Griffin over Colby Covington. Covington is likely to outwrestle Griffin but the newcomer is the bigger fighter and the better athlete with explosive knockout power. Covington is still raw in his striking and all Griffin needs is a small window to do his damage.
