It seems like every couple months we say, “This is the biggest event the UFC has ever put on,” but in 2016 that has been the case.
UFC 200 in July was a big deal then UFC 202 in August was a bigger deal, but neither of those had as much hype as Saturday’s UFC 205, the first MMA event ever at Madison Square Garden.
UFC 205 is flush with star power. Three title fights, several bouts with title implications and a handful of former champions. Despite losing Donald Cerrone vs. Kelvin Gastelum and Rashad Evans vs. Tim Kennedy, the fight card is stacked from top to bottom.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N7hnoUJMtU
With the help of Sportsnet MMA contributor James Lynch (who is in New York providing some coverage for us), contributor Paolo Go, 680 NEWS reporter Geoff Rohoman and Sportsnet Stats editorial coordinator Brandon Pollack, we predict what will happen on the UFC 205 main card plus give one preliminary card pick.
Here we go…
EDDIE ALVAREZ vs. CONOR MCGREGOR
Johnston: Alvarez by decision. Alvarez’s striking style leaves an opening for McGregor’s left hand to land, so that’s worrisome, but if the lightweight champ grinds McGregor down for the first two rounds like he should he’ll eventually wear him out.
Lynch: Alvarez by submission. I see Alvarez surviving the early onslaught from McGregor and then sinking in a submission late in the fight.
Go: McGregor by KO. Alvarez is the better fighter overall but he’s underestimating Conor and will leave himself open long enough for Conor to land a kill shot and put him out cold.
Rohoman: McGregor by TKO. We know the game plan to beat McGregor. Put him on his back. Alvarez is an exceptional wrestler and loves to smother people but his pride might make him want to trade with Conor. Despite Eddie’s great head movement I see him getting caught.
Pollack: Alvarez by submission. Alvarez is tough as nails, but I can’t see him getting into a slugfest with Mystic Mac. Ground and pound followed by a submission.
TYRON WOODLEY vs. STEPHEN “WONDERBOY” THOMPSON
Johnston: Thompson by decision. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Woodley is going to land his leaping right hand early and end the fight but Wonderboy’s distance control is more impressive than the champ’s speed and power.
Lynch: Thompson by KO. Wonderboy will frustrate the current champion with his unorthodox style, takedown defence, height/reach advantage and will eventually knock Woodley out.
Go: Woodley by TKO. Wonderboy will confound Woodley for most of the fight by utilizing his range and unpredictable kicks but Woodley will capitalize on a brief opening and stun him to retain his title.
Rohoman: Thompson by decision. After that blistering knockout of Robbie Lawler, Woodley might stand and exchange and I think Thompson is just too unorthodox and creative with his strikes.
Pollack: Thompson by TKO. Thompson has some of the most devastating kicks in the division and he’ll use them to avoid Woodley’s power punches and finish the fight early.
JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK vs. KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ
Johnston: Jedrzejczyk by TKO. Speed will be the difference in what’s sure to be a dogfight. Can’t wait for this one.
Lynch: Jedrzejczyk by decision. Expect this to be one of the closest fights on the card but Jedrzejczyk will edge this one out with her superior striking.
Go: Jedrzejczyk by decision. Jedrzejczyk is on another level. Kowalkiewicz will bring it and it may be close at first but the champ will pull away eventually.
Rohoman: Kowalkiewicz by TKO. There is no reason to ever bet against Joanna but I’m picking Karolina because of the “Rohoman Curse.” Fighters who come in studio with me tend to lose their next fight. Rory Macdonald (twice), Patrick Cote, Chris Weidman, Johny Hendricks and Anthony Pettis.
Pollack: Jedrzejczyk by TKO. Joanna will pick apart her challenger, using superior technique and raw power to finish the fight within three rounds.
CHRIS WEIDMAN vs. YOEL ROMERO
Johnston: Weidman by TKO. Put every UFC 205 competitor in the cage at the same time and tell them to “sort it out Royal Rumble style” and the last two fighters standing would be Weidman and Romero. Everyone talks about Romero’s gas tank but he routinely finishes fights in the third round. I do believe the hometown crowd will fuel Weidman.
Lynch: Weidman by decision. Weidman will put on an incredible comeback performance and take home a unanimous decision victory over the Cuban wrestler.
Go: Weidman by decision. Weidman will outlast Romero in a close grueling contest that will see back-and-forth action but Weidman is tougher. It may come down to which fighter can endure the most punishment.
Rohoman: Weidman by decision. Biggest coin flip of the card for me. Weidman has championship experience and should be able to outpoint Romero for three rounds.
Pollack: Romero by KO. Romero has the power to knock out anybody in the middleweight division and as long as he can prevent being taken down at will, expect another KO.
MIESHA TATE vs. RAQUEL PENNINGTON
Johnston: Tate by submission. She had issues with her weight cut against Amanda Nunes due to a thyroid problem that she has sorted out. Tate is better in all areas, especially on the ground.
Lynch: Tate by decision. Tate will earn a nice bounce back win over Pennington by edging out a close decision.
Go: Tate by decision. This is Tate’s fight to lose depending on how motivated she is. Pennington has great boxing and sneaky submissions but Tate has fought the better competition and knows how to dig deep after being put in hot water.
Rohoman: Tate by decision. I like Pennington but Miesha is on a different level than her. Expect a lot of wrestling and barring a third-round collapse Miesha should get the W.
Pollack: Tate by decision. Tate is coming off a loss to Nunes, losing the women’s bantamweight title in the process, and should be hungry to get back into title contention. Expect a hungry, motivated Tate to look for the finish.
PRELIM PICKS
Johnston: Jeremy Stephens over Frankie Edgar. Stephens became a punchline after McGregor schooled him at a press conference but he shouldn’t be dismissed here. Stephens typically has trouble with rangy fighters. Edgar isn’t one of those. I think back to Stephens’ win over Dennis Bermudez and get a bit of déjà vu.
Lynch: Tim Boetsch by KO. Boestch will surprise in this fight and earn an upset victory over Natal.
Go: Michael Johnson by decision. Nurmagomedov will outwrestle Johnson anytime and anyplace but he may make a small mistake of trying to be a showman and fight Johnson on his feet, which will prove fatal as “The Menace” will eat him up with his boxing.
Pollack: Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission. Khabib has the longest undefeated streak in MMA, and a win over Johnson should vault him into the title picture. Khabib will dominate this matchup, locking in a submission in the first two rounds.
