On Wednesday, we took a look back at the winners from the last six seasons of The Ultimate Fighter to project how far each of the group could climb up the ladder in his respective division.
With another member of the fraternity of The Ultimate Fighter winners set to be determined on Saturday night, now we’ll look at the two finalists who will face off this weekend and take a shot at predicting how far they’ll be able to go inside the Octagon.
Remember: this is all speculative. Fighters develop, improve, and exceed expectations all the time. After he was submitted by Demian Maia, I never would have guessed Chael Sonnen would become the second best middleweight in the UFC, but that’s exactly what the man who coached both Uriah Hall and Kelvin Gastelum this season did.
Here are my thoughts on the long-term prospects of Saturday’s finalists.
Finalist: Kelvin Gastelum
Record: 5-0
Gastelum really intrigues me. The youngest member of this season’s cast likely wasn’t picked by many to make it this far in the competition, but he’s looked very good getting here, finishing all three of his fights en route to reaching Saturday’s finale.
He’s still raw, but he’s shown good hands and an ability to be effective on the ground. I actually really like the fact that he’s made it here. I think it shows that he didn’t get caught up in the talk about who should win or get too high on himself either; he just brought his tools into the cage, and got the job done. That’s a great trait for any fighter to have, and perhaps even more beneficial to see in a 21-year-old with a good set of fundamentals and a willingness to work and learn.
Where he trains could play a big role in Gastelum’s development going forward. With the right coaching and surrounded by the right teammates, the Yuma, Arizona resident has the potential to grow into a solid all-around talent with very good upside. Again, he’s 21 and won three bouts in six weeks when he wasn’t expected to win any of them.
I do think a move down to welterweight is in Gastelum’s future. He’s a little loose around the midsection, and at 5-foot-9 tall, a little undersized for competing in the middleweight ranks moving forward.
The big key for Gastelum in the future is going to be how slowly he’s allowed to develop. Obviously, winning the Ultimate Fighter would accelerate that timetable a little bit, but there is no real reason to rush a relatively inexperienced fighter into the thick of the fray in either the middleweight or welterweight division at this point. Given a couple years to continue improving and learning on the job, the 5-0 finalist could eventually grow into a solid contender.
He reminds me of Costa Philippou a little — a guy who doesn’t wow you in any one area, but is good everywhere, and possesses great intangibles. Philippou has developed over the last few years into a legitimate contender in the middleweight division, and given the same time to hone his skills, Gastelum could do the same in the future.
Finalist: Uriah Hall
Record: 7-2
There is no question that Hall has been the most impressive competitor on The Ultimate Fighter in a number of years. The Team Tiger Schulman product dropped Adam Cella with an Edson Barboza-esque spinning hook kick, blasted Bubba McDaniel with a right hand no one saw coming, and turned the tides against Dylan Andrews with a series of heavy shots from the bottom before reversing position to finish him off from mount.
Hall has been worthy of all the praise heaped on him by UFC president Dana White thus far, and the descriptors are all true and valid. So too have been most of the praise offered up by his coach Chael Sonnen.
No, I’m not saying I think Hall could beat Anderson Silva right now as Sonnen did during Tuesday night’s final episode. I do think, however, that the Queens, N.Y., resident does have the ability to be a championship contender in the 185-pound division in the not-too-distant future though.
Here’s the thing: you can’t learn the kind of explosive finishing power and skill Hall possesses. It’s one of those innate things that a fighter either has or they don’t, and Hall has plenty of it, as we’ve seen all season.
That kind of dynamic finishing ability means he’s never out of a fight, and watching Hall progress throughout the season, we saw him get more and more confident in himself and his skills with each subsequent fight. If the results keep coming and the confidence continues to grow, Hall could be even scarier than he is now.
There are obvious question marks that still remain with the former two-time Ring of Combat middleweight champion.
He dictated the terms and pace of most of his fights in the house, and was effective off his back against Andrews, but how will he hold up against a wrestler with a strong top game? Additionally, his two career losses to date came against current UFC contenders Chris Weidman and Philippou, so there are those hurdles to clear before he can be considered a contender.
Having said that, there were moments in the first round of his fight with Andrews where it looked like I was watching Jon Jones compete. Hall found his swagger in the cage, and just picked Andrews apart with precision and power; it was beautifully violent, just as most of Jones’ fights have been thus far.
I think Hall will get the best of Gastelum on Saturday night, and if he wins in the same stunning fashion that he’s displayed on his way to the finals, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put on a slightly faster track towards contention than most up-and-coming talents in the future.
