The first time Dan Henderson and Maurico “Shogun” Rua met inside the Octagon, there was a palpable buzz heading into the contest.
Serving as the headlining act at UFC 139, Henderson was returning from his two-year venture to Strikeforce, entering on a three-fight winning streak that closed out with a first-round stoppage of iconic Russian heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. Outside of when he moved to the UFC following his historic run in Pride, this was the hottest Henderson has been heading into a bout in the Octagon.
And Rua was still in the championship mix, rebounding from his loss to Jon Jones with a blistering first-round finish of former titleholder Forrest Griffin less than three months earlier in Rio de Janeiro.
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This was expected to be a competitive bout with serious importance in the divisional title chase, and it turned out to be so much more.
Over the course of 25 minutes, the legendary light heavyweights waged a battle of epic proportions, momentum swinging with every heavy strike landed as Henderson roared out to an early lead, only to have Rua close the distance as the rounds wore on and time ticked off the clock.
In the end, Henderson took home a unanimous decision win, positioning himself to challenge Jones for the light heavyweight title.
Flash forward to today, with Rua and Henderson poised to renew acquaintances Sunday night in the main event of the UFC’s inaugural event in Natal, Brazil. While the first meeting carried title implications, this second meeting carries an entirely different set of circumstances.
Henderson’s shot at the light heavyweight title never materialized, disappearing when his late knee injury served as the catalyst for the collapse of UFC 151. Now 28 months removed from his first meeting with Rua, he hasn’t won since, dropping three straight contests, and entering Sunday’s rematch off a first-round knockout loss to Vitor Belfort.
Combined with his recent struggles, Henderson’s advanced age (he’ll be 44 this summer) and the recent ban on testosterone-replacement therapy (TRT) has many wondering if this might be the end of the line for the historically underrated former Pride and Strikeforce champion.
And a loss to Rua is only going to crank up the volume on that conversation.
While Henderson has said that he’ll continue on without TRT and intends to fulfill all six fights on his recently signed contract extension, a fourth consecutive setback leaves him far removed from title contention and diminishes his drawing potential even more. At a certain point, the lure of a big name is over matched by the results they’re collecting, and Henderson is at risk of crossing that threshold here.
Rua, on the other hand, appears to be at a crossroads. Where Henderson is clearly in the twilight of his career, the former light heavyweight champion could go either way.
Heading into his fight with James Te Huna last December, many believed “Shogun” was slowing down as well, having struggled to find consistency since losing the title to Jones and entering the bout off a first-round submission loss to Chael Sonnen. But all of that was erased with a 63-second knockout win against James Te Huna.
This was the “Shogun” of old—powerful, explosive, violent—and physically, he looked better than he had in years. He’s since admitted he lost focus and motivation during his up-and-down stretch following the first bout with Henderson, but has rediscovered his passion now that he’s teamed up with the likes of Demian Maia and Daniel Sarafian.
But those same “is this the end” questions could arise if Rua comes out flat and falls to Henderson on Sunday. While the win over Te Huna changed the narrative for the time being, losing to a man on a three-fight slide—even one as accomplished as Henderson—would raise the red flag once again.
Here’s where things get really interesting: given their stature, either man could find their way back in the title chase with a standout performance here.
The light heavyweight landscape has shifted a great deal in recent years, with several perennial contenders slipping out of contention or moving to different divisions. Although Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier are stationed at the top of the list of contenders—with the winner of the upcoming bout between Phil Davis and Anthony Johnson poised to going that grouping—things are wide open beyond that.
Stopping Henderson would vault Rua back into the Top 5, where a bout with Cormier or the Davis-Johnson winner would make sense. Henderson would have a little more ground to make up, given that he hasn’t won since beating Rua in November 2011, but his name value would accelerate his ascension, and he too could find himself dancing with the likes of Davis or Johnson in the future.
And that’s what ups the intrigue factor on this fight.
As much as getting a rematch of one of the most entertaining contests in recent years is great, there is no guarantee that an encore is in the offing. There have been plenty of follow-up bouts that didn’t live up to their predecessors, and this one could follow suit.
But the rematch isn’t the only reason to watch.
The future of two of the most recognizable fighters in the sport over the last decade hangs in the balance and they each have the opportunity to determine their own fate inside the cage this weekend.
This is a pivotal battle for two legends — the fact that we could get another back-and-forth slobberknocker is just gravy.