History will be made at UFC 171 Saturday in Dallas, when for the first time since 2008 a new welterweight champion will be crowned as Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler battle for the vacant title.
Lawler has been competing in MMA since 2001, but he’s fighting for a UFC title for the first time. Meanwhile, this is the second straight title shot for Hendricks, who many believe should already be champion after his controversial loss to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 167 last November.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch UFC 171 preliminary fights on Sportsnet 360 Saturday starting at 8 p.m. EST
They say everything is bigger in Texas, and in terms of what’s at stake for Hendricks and Lawler, that phrase rings true.
With that in mind, here is a head-to-toe breakdown of how the UFC 171 headliners stack up for their highly anticipated welterweight championship bout.
Tale of the tape
Johny Hendricks
Height: Five-foot-nine
Weight: 170 pounds
Reach: 69 inches
Stance: Southpaw
Background: Wrestling
Nickname: Bigg Rigg
MMA record: 15-2
UFC bonuses: Three Knockout of the Night, Two Fight of the Night
Notable wins: Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, TJ Grant
Robbie Lawler
Height: Five-foot-11
Weight: 170 pounds
Reach: 74 inches
Stance: Southpaw
Background: Boxing, wrestling
Nickname: Ruthless
MMA record: 22–9, 1 NC
UFC bonuses: One Knockout of the Night
Notable wins: Rory MacDonald, Josh Koscheck, Frank Trigg, Chris Lytle
Striking & Work Rate
Both men have a history of relieving opponents of their senses with one-shot knockout power.
Hendricks has landed an average of 3.14 significant strikes per minute in his UFC/WEC career and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent, which is better than Lawler’s 2.91 significant strikes per minute and 43 percent accuracy.
Lawler has a higher knockdown/knockout rate, but since Hendricks is the slightly more active fighter, this dynamic evens out.
Hendricks has eight career knockout wins, while Lawler has stopped his opponents with strikes in 18 of his 22 career wins. Hendricks has landed 680 total strikes in his UFC career, which is 10th most among active welterweights.
On the defensive side, Lawler takes less damage. He gets hit with an average of 2.85 significant strikes per minute compared to Hendricks’s 3.21.
Lawler also throws more kicks than Hendricks and he’s got a five-inch reach advantage, which means he is better served staying on the outside until he finds an opening to move in and land a power shot. However, since Hendricks is the shorter fighter in nearly all of his bouts, and Lawler is not known for his footwork, the reach advantage might not play as a big a factor as the numbers suggest.
Southpaw vs Southpaw
It’s uncommon for lefties to fight one another in such high-profile bouts, but that’s what we’re going to see at the American Airlines Center.
In fact, UFC 171 is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to lefties. Including Hendricks and Lawler, there are 11 southpaws fighting at the event—something that has never happened before on a UFC card.
The last time Hendricks fought a fellow southpaw, he lost a unanimous decision to Rick Story at the TUF 12 Finale on Dec. 4, 2010.
Ironically, the last time Lawler fought a southpaw was also on Dec. 4, 2010 when he knocked out Matt Lindland in Strikeforce.
Southpaw vs southpaw battles often result in a tentative feeling out process, so fans expecting a wild brawl from the get-go might be disappointed.
Wrestling
While many believe this fight will take place primarily on the feet, the biggest factor in the bout might come down to whether or not Hendricks can take advantage of what should be an edge in wrestling.
Hendricks was a Division 1 All-American and national champion at Oklahoma State during his collegiate career and he has been able to apply his wrestling ability to MMA.
Although he only has a takedown accuracy rate of 50 percent, Hendricks is a relentless master of leverage who can often pin his opponents against the cage and wear them down before taking it to the mat. He was able to take GSP down twice in their battle and stuffed half of GSP’s attempts.
Lawler has underrated wrestling and can defend quite well. He was taken down by Josh Koscheck and Rory MacDonald, but defended well and was able to get back to his feet.
Statistically, Lawler’s 63 percent takedown defence is better than Hendricks’s 61 percent. And, in fights where Lawler has been taken down and controlled, they were often middleweight or catchweight bouts where he was the much smaller fighter. At 170 pounds, Lawler is much more difficult to take down and control.
Submissions
Five of Lawler’s nine career losses have been by submission and he simply doesn’t attempt them. Hendricks will also rarely go for submissions. He went for a kimura at one point against GSP, but that was more a form of takedown defence rather than an attempt to submit the Canadian.
If this fight is finished within the distance, the chances it ends with a submission are slim to none.
Cardio & Durability
In five-round bouts cardio is always a concern, but both fighters are confident they can handle the full 25 minutes if necessary.
Hendricks never faded in his five-round war with GSP, but he missed weight on his initial attempt Friday, which raised some eyebrows. Some feel the extra time Hendricks had to spend shedding an additional 1.5 pounds will affect him in the fight. His nutritionist, Mike Dolce, says his fighter will be no worse for wear on fight night and expects Hendricks to weigh approximately 196 pounds at fight time. Dolce said leading up to the bout that Hendricks is lighter and leaner yet stronger than he’s ever been before.
Lawler’s fights in the Octagon last an average of 8:22 and he has gone the distance just six times in his MMA career (he’s 3-3 in those bouts). He has only been outside the third round once in his career — when he knocked out Frank Trigg early in the fourth round of their 2007 Icon Sport title fight.
In terms of durability, both fighters are known for it. We’ve seen Hendricks eat big shots from the likes of Condit and Koscheck, but we’ve never seen him rocked in any of his UFC appearances and he has never been knocked out. Lawler has been knocked out once in his career, but that was 10 years ago to Nick Diaz at UFC 47.
Betting odds
Hendricks started as high as a 6-to-1 favourite, which was shocking to those who’ve watched Lawler progress throughout the years.
The line has evened out in the days leading up to the event, but Hendricks is still a heavy favourite. The odds dipped slightly again when Hendricks initially missed weight at Friday’s weigh-ins, but he sits at -400 and Lawler at +300.
Lawler was nearly a 4-to-1 underdog for his bout against Koscheck and a 3-to-1 underdog against MacDonald, and Lawler thrived in those bouts. Hendricks is rarely a heavy favourite so this is new territory for the bearded slugger.
Championship intangibles
Although Hendricks has been in the spotlight more than Lawler in recent fights, Lawler has more championship experience in MMA.
The former Miletich Fighting Systems prodigy has been a champ in three organizations (EliteXC, Icon Sport and Superbrawl); he most recently fought for a title against middleweight standout Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in Strikeforce in 2011. Lawler has never been a champion at 170 pounds.
While Hendricks is a multiple-time wrestling champion, he has never been an MMA champ. His only experience in a title fight was his last outing at UFC 167 against GSP. Although he lost a split decision to GSP, many scored the bout for Hendricks.
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