The next chapter for the UFC’s middleweight division’s new era is upon us, and it’s what all eyes will be focusing on this Saturday night. But it isn’t the only story that will come from Brazil.
It goes without saying, that should former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida defeat Gegard Mousasi in the main event, ‘the Dragon’ will be granted a title shot in his current home at 185 lb. And while he is the -240 Vegas odds favorite heading into the bout, it won’t come that easily.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi Saturday on Sportnet 360 starting at 10:30 p.m. EST
‘The Dream Catcher’ is a former Pride champion, who has been around for quite some time, and brings a slight reach advantage into the octagon. He also has age and experience on his side. He’s a crafty cat, who will not go away easily.
On paper, he matches up very well vs Machida but the overused analogy continues to pop up every time the Brazilian fights. He’s an enigma who is very difficult to figure out, but time may help Mousasi, as this one is scheduled for 25 minutes.
While I do give the edge to Lyoto in this fight, he could be in for a long five-round bout. Then again, his counter-attacking style can end the fight in a heartbeat, so it’s safe to say, my blinking will be at a premium.
Fluctuating Title Shots
There has not been much talk about Mousasi being granted a title shot, should he emerge victorious. That seems to fall on the shoulders of Ronaldo Souza, who Gegard defeated in 2008 with an up kick. He may have to use that card in his post-fight presentation to the UFC, should he and ‘Jacare’ both win.
But the Brazilian will be dealing with a very cerebral Francis Carmont, who, since joining the Tristar camp in Montreal, has emulated Georges St-Pierre, his close friend and training partner’s style, of taking his opponents to where they are the weakest. Problem is, Jacare is exceptional everywhere.
His ground game is arguably the best in MMA, which allows him to be virtually reckless with his striking. He’s fast, explosive and ruthless. It’s a matchup that forecasts one of two things: a methodical performance by Carmont, or a destruction by Souza.
Carmont, who now calls Canada home, could be the biggest winner coming out of Brazil, as his stock value would sky rocket with a victory over Jacare, who many believe is the future champ at middleweight.
No matter which way you look at it, it’s safe to say current champ Chris Weidman, and his next opponent Vitor Belfort, will be watching closely, as the four men competing in Jarajua do Sul, could be on both of their radars in the coming months.
Other key bouts and story lines
Carmont isn’t the only Canadian competing on the card. London, Ontario’s Jesse Ronson is set to take on Francisco Trinaldo. The Brazilian believes ‘The Body Snatcher’s muay thai will be his downfall, and is predicting a knockout. On the flip side, Francisco better protect his body, as his chin will not be Jesse’s only target.
There’s also the curious case of Erick Silva, who many (including yours truly) originally forecasted as a top contender at 170 lb., perhaps one day competing for the welterweight title.
But expectations for the young Brazilian have faltered, a sentiment that seems to be echoed by his employer, as instead of being matched up vs someone in the top 15, he was given Nate Loughran, a solid fighter but one who is not ranked that high.
Nate was then forced to withdraw with an injury and has since been replaced with Takenori Sato, ‘The Last Disciple’ of MMA great Kazushi Sakuraba. Sato is making his octagon debut and will set the MMA forest ablaze with a victory over Silva. And my goodness, what will we all think about Erick then?
In closing, the aforementioned bouts all have “Fight” or “Performance” of the night written all over them, but I highly suggest paying close attention to the featherweight bout vs Felipe Arantes and Maximo Blanco.
That one could get ugly, as could the bantamweight tilt between Iuri Alcantara and Wilson Reis. Someone could be going to sleep in this one, and it may not just be courtesy of heavy leather.